Georgia suburbanites sticking with Trump

[Ferguson97]

Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden among college-educated white voters by 12 percentage points (though that is a significant contraction from 2016, when Mr. Trump won the same group by 20 percentage points).

An 8 point shift to Biden from this group is "good for Trump" somehow...

[Ferguson97]

What if all suburbs come home?

What can they get with Biden?
High taxes, high unemployment, depression.

What if crack was free?

What would you get with it?
High, stupid, broke.

Suburbs voting for Biden is irrational.
If they really vote for Biden, it will be voting against their interest.

Shockingly, I'm not looking to vote for someone who calls suburban women like me "housewives". 

Casting your vote based on emotions. And against your interest. Irrational.

Donald Trump is not favorable to anybody's interest except straight white male billionaires.

[Ferguson97]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

My point is that the pollsters generally have a strong habit of getting polling wrong when it comes to elections which Trump is involved in. And even more particularly within states where there is not a clear leaning towards one party or the other.

Even more curious is the pollsters ability to not just get the polls wrong equally (sometimes for Trump and sometimes against), but rather to consistently get it wrong against Trump.

On this basis, when I see some polls showing a Trump lead, I tend to think that pollsters actually have no clue which way the election is headed. And it certainly calls into question Biden's 4,5,6+ point lead which most polls say he has.

Sooooooo 2016.

That’s one election, you can’t get a trend from that. Polling has changed since then too, and so has the entire nature of the election, if you couldn’t tell.

Some things have changed, most have not. The level of vitriol toward Trumps and his supporters has gotten worse and more violent - hence (IMO) the huge inaccuracies in polling data which do not pick up a large percentage of voters who will vote Trump. Similar to 2016, but on a greater level in 2020.

Also, (and this is entirely subjective), sit back and drop the partisan angle on the whole election. Which candidate looks more popular on face value? Trump with thousands attending his rallys every day? Or Biden and Harris who collectively struggle to get 50 people to show up (and therefore have instructed people to bring their cars and honk the horns to generate some noise).

Ask Bernie Sanders how crowd sizes are an indicator of wins.

Completely different scenario and you would need to talk about the democratic establishment making sure that Bernie didn't win.

1) Yeah because the establishment was dying to have Trump in 2016.

2) Voters rejected Bernie, not the DNC (for the love of god, do not rehash the primary)