Georgia suburbanites sticking with Trump

[Bootes Void]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

Uhh no

[forsythvoter]

The D trends in metro ATL are too rapid to be explained by demographics alone. There are precincts in East Cobb, South Forsyth, North Fulton, North Dekalb and parts of Gwinnett for example where Kemp in 2018 received 20-30% less than Romney did in 2012. The minority population in those areas might have increased 5-7% in those areas in that same time frame so the remainder of the swing has to come from changing habits of white voters.

I am not as familiar with Southside Atlanta but my impression is that the D trend in areas like Henry, Douglas and Rockdale are more driven by increases in the minority population. Fayette might be an exception to this as it's population is slower growth and Democrats have also gained significant ground there in heavily white areas such as parts of Peachtree City.

Saving this for when Biden cracks 60% in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett is the poorest, most diverse of Atlanta's northern suburbs.  

Biden is gonna win Cobb and ex-Milton too.

Biden will not approach anywhere near 60% in Cobb or North Fulton, even though these counties are both becoming increasingly diverse (South Cobb is essentially an extension of West Atlanta/Douglas, it's over 60% Black.)  He may break 60% in Gwinnett only because it's the poorest, most downscale of Atlanta's northern suburban counties.  There really aren't these Romney-Clinton voters you obsess over as much as there are Romney-Clinton places.  

Also:  how come when talking about Georgia's suburban Romney-Clinton counties no one seems to give any love to South Atlanta's Henry County (even though it's the most Democratic of any of them)?  Might it have something to do with it only being 55% White and 36% college-educated?  Doesn't quite fit your narrative I guess, hmm?

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump will win white Georgia suburbanites, but that’s not enough to win re-election. At the very least he needs to match his 2016 numbers, or at the very least, Kemp’s numbers.

[forsythvoter]

This is spot on. The reason Republicans are losing counties like Cobb especially and Gwinnett to a lesser extent is not just because of demographics. Their share of the white vote has been going down from the 75% range to closer to 60-65%.

Trump will win white Georgia suburbanites, but that’s not enough to win re-election. At the very least he needs to match his 2016 numbers, or at the very least, Kemp’s numbers.

[Stevie wonder]

What is also not being taken into account is Trump's increasing favourability with black voters.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is spot on. The reason Republicans are losing counties like Cobb especially and Gwinnett to a lesser extent is not just because of demographics. Their share of the white vote has been going down from the 75% range to closer to 60-65%.

Trump will win white Georgia suburbanites, but that’s not enough to win re-election. At the very least he needs to match his 2016 numbers, or at the very least, Kemp’s numbers.

Which is why we should look at Forsyth. If Biden cracks 30% there, Trump is in deep trouble.

[forsythvoter]

Agreed - if you look at the last two elections, Forsyth county has been the county with the the largest or second largest D trends in all of Georgia. I suspect this will be the case again this year.

This is spot on. The reason Republicans are losing counties like Cobb especially and Gwinnett to a lesser extent is not just because of demographics. Their share of the white vote has been going down from the 75% range to closer to 60-65%.

Trump will win white Georgia suburbanites, but that’s not enough to win re-election. At the very least he needs to match his 2016 numbers, or at the very least, Kemp’s numbers.

Which is why we should look at Forsyth. If Biden cracks 30% there, Trump is in deep trouble.

[ON Progressive]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

Emerson is one pollster. Just in the last week, we've had NYT/Siena (tie,) SurveyUSA (Biden +2,) and Quinnipiac (Biden +7, but with an adjustment to take into account their fairly prounounced lean would still be something like Biden +2 or +3).

Don't look at a single poll; always look at the polling averages, which are (as they currently stand):

- 270toWin: Biden +1.2
- RCP: Biden +1.2
- 538: Biden +1

Bad data in = bad data out. Why would you consolidate multiple polls with bad data into an average which further 'muddies the water'.

The polls have a tendency of not reflecting Trump voters. So for the swing state polls to be showing more favourable results for Trump compared to 2016, goes to go Trump's chances in 2020 are extremely strong.

You literally cited an Emerson poll. Emerson uses MTurk which is objectively bad data.

[Virginiá]

[ultraviolet]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

[Stevie wonder]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

My point is that the pollsters generally have a strong habit of getting polling wrong when it comes to elections which Trump is involved in. And even more particularly within states where there is not a clear leaning towards one party or the other.

Even more curious is the pollsters ability to not just get the polls wrong equally (sometimes for Trump and sometimes against), but rather to consistently get it wrong against Trump.

On this basis, when I see some polls showing a Trump lead, I tend to think that pollsters actually have no clue which way the election is headed. And it certainly calls into question Biden's 4,5,6+ point lead which most polls say he has.

[ultraviolet]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

My point is that the pollsters generally have a strong habit of getting polling wrong when it comes to elections which Trump is involved in. And even more particularly within states where there is not a clear leaning towards one party or the other.

Even more curious is the pollsters ability to not just get the polls wrong equally (sometimes for Trump and sometimes against), but rather to consistently get it wrong against Trump.

On this basis, when I see some polls showing a Trump lead, I tend to think that pollsters actually have no clue which way the election is headed. And it certainly calls into question Biden's 4,5,6+ point lead which most polls say he has.

Sooooooo 2016.

That’s one election, you can’t get a trend from that. Polling has changed since then too, and so has the entire nature of the election, if you couldn’t tell.

[Stevie wonder]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

My point is that the pollsters generally have a strong habit of getting polling wrong when it comes to elections which Trump is involved in. And even more particularly within states where there is not a clear leaning towards one party or the other.

Even more curious is the pollsters ability to not just get the polls wrong equally (sometimes for Trump and sometimes against), but rather to consistently get it wrong against Trump.

On this basis, when I see some polls showing a Trump lead, I tend to think that pollsters actually have no clue which way the election is headed. And it certainly calls into question Biden's 4,5,6+ point lead which most polls say he has.

Sooooooo 2016.

That’s one election, you can’t get a trend from that. Polling has changed since then too, and so has the entire nature of the election, if you couldn’t tell.

Some things have changed, most have not. The level of vitriol toward Trumps and his supporters has gotten worse and more violent - hence (IMO) the huge inaccuracies in polling data which do not pick up a large percentage of voters who will vote Trump. Similar to 2016, but on a greater level in 2020.

Also, (and this is entirely subjective), sit back and drop the partisan angle on the whole election. Which candidate looks more popular on face value? Trump with thousands attending his rallys every day? Or Biden and Harris who collectively struggle to get 50 people to show up (and therefore have instructed people to bring their cars and honk the horns to generate some noise).

[ultraviolet]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

My point is that the pollsters generally have a strong habit of getting polling wrong when it comes to elections which Trump is involved in. And even more particularly within states where there is not a clear leaning towards one party or the other.

Even more curious is the pollsters ability to not just get the polls wrong equally (sometimes for Trump and sometimes against), but rather to consistently get it wrong against Trump.

On this basis, when I see some polls showing a Trump lead, I tend to think that pollsters actually have no clue which way the election is headed. And it certainly calls into question Biden's 4,5,6+ point lead which most polls say he has.

Sooooooo 2016.

That’s one election, you can’t get a trend from that. Polling has changed since then too, and so has the entire nature of the election, if you couldn’t tell.

Some things have changed, most have not. The level of vitriol toward Trumps and his supporters has gotten worse and more violent - hence (IMO) the huge inaccuracies in polling data which do not pick up a large percentage of voters who will vote Trump. Similar to 2016, but on a greater level in 2020.

Also, (and this is entirely subjective), sit back and drop the partisan angle on the whole election. Which candidate looks more popular on face value? Trump with thousands attending his rallys every day? Or Biden and Harris who collectively struggle to get 50 people to show up (and therefore have instructed people to bring their cars and honk the horns to generate some noise).

First, pollsters recognized that what was wrong with their 2016 polls was mostly that they didn’t weight for education. Now they do. We can’t know for sure if that’ll fix them until Election Day, but it seems promising.

Second, crowd sizes do not matter. Obviously this metric is even more useless this year as most Democrats do not want to be at a huge event during a pandemic, and Biden and Harris don’t want that either. Trump and his supporters don’t care about that.

[MikeIrvine]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

My point is that the pollsters generally have a strong habit of getting polling wrong when it comes to elections which Trump is involved in. And even more particularly within states where there is not a clear leaning towards one party or the other.

Even more curious is the pollsters ability to not just get the polls wrong equally (sometimes for Trump and sometimes against), but rather to consistently get it wrong against Trump.

On this basis, when I see some polls showing a Trump lead, I tend to think that pollsters actually have no clue which way the election is headed. And it certainly calls into question Biden's 4,5,6+ point lead which most polls say he has.

Sooooooo 2016.

That’s one election, you can’t get a trend from that. Polling has changed since then too, and so has the entire nature of the election, if you couldn’t tell.

Some things have changed, most have not. The level of vitriol toward Trumps and his supporters has gotten worse and more violent - hence (IMO) the huge inaccuracies in polling data which do not pick up a large percentage of voters who will vote Trump. Similar to 2016, but on a greater level in 2020.

Also, (and this is entirely subjective), sit back and drop the partisan angle on the whole election. Which candidate looks more popular on face value? Trump with thousands attending his rallys every day? Or Biden and Harris who collectively struggle to get 50 people to show up (and therefore have instructed people to bring their cars and honk the horns to generate some noise).

Ask Bernie Sanders how crowd sizes are an indicator of wins.

[Indy Texas]

Natalie Pontius is an interior decorator, married with two children and a University of Georgia alumna. She was born and raised in Atlanta, but moved to the city’s exurbs with her family several years ago, drawn to the region’s quality of public education. In November, she’s voting for Donald Trump.

[Stevie wonder]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

My point is that the pollsters generally have a strong habit of getting polling wrong when it comes to elections which Trump is involved in. And even more particularly within states where there is not a clear leaning towards one party or the other.

Even more curious is the pollsters ability to not just get the polls wrong equally (sometimes for Trump and sometimes against), but rather to consistently get it wrong against Trump.

On this basis, when I see some polls showing a Trump lead, I tend to think that pollsters actually have no clue which way the election is headed. And it certainly calls into question Biden's 4,5,6+ point lead which most polls say he has.

Sooooooo 2016.

That’s one election, you can’t get a trend from that. Polling has changed since then too, and so has the entire nature of the election, if you couldn’t tell.

Some things have changed, most have not. The level of vitriol toward Trumps and his supporters has gotten worse and more violent - hence (IMO) the huge inaccuracies in polling data which do not pick up a large percentage of voters who will vote Trump. Similar to 2016, but on a greater level in 2020.

Also, (and this is entirely subjective), sit back and drop the partisan angle on the whole election. Which candidate looks more popular on face value? Trump with thousands attending his rallys every day? Or Biden and Harris who collectively struggle to get 50 people to show up (and therefore have instructed people to bring their cars and honk the horns to generate some noise).

Ask Bernie Sanders how crowd sizes are an indicator of wins.

Completely different scenario and you would need to talk about the democratic establishment making sure that Bernie didn't win.

[Ferguson97]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

I agree. Even though Biden is winning in the GA poll averages, this one poll showing Trump up by a huge 1 point makes a win there all but certain. It helps that Emerson is one of the best pollsters out there.

My point is that the pollsters generally have a strong habit of getting polling wrong when it comes to elections which Trump is involved in. And even more particularly within states where there is not a clear leaning towards one party or the other.

Even more curious is the pollsters ability to not just get the polls wrong equally (sometimes for Trump and sometimes against), but rather to consistently get it wrong against Trump.

On this basis, when I see some polls showing a Trump lead, I tend to think that pollsters actually have no clue which way the election is headed. And it certainly calls into question Biden's 4,5,6+ point lead which most polls say he has.

Sooooooo 2016.

That’s one election, you can’t get a trend from that. Polling has changed since then too, and so has the entire nature of the election, if you couldn’t tell.

Some things have changed, most have not. The level of vitriol toward Trumps and his supporters has gotten worse and more violent - hence (IMO) the huge inaccuracies in polling data which do not pick up a large percentage of voters who will vote Trump. Similar to 2016, but on a greater level in 2020.

Also, (and this is entirely subjective), sit back and drop the partisan angle on the whole election. Which candidate looks more popular on face value? Trump with thousands attending his rallys every day? Or Biden and Harris who collectively struggle to get 50 people to show up (and therefore have instructed people to bring their cars and honk the horns to generate some noise).

Ask Bernie Sanders how crowd sizes are an indicator of wins.

Completely different scenario and you would need to talk about the democratic establishment making sure that Bernie didn't win.

1) Yeah because the establishment was dying to have Trump in 2016.

2) Voters rejected Bernie, not the DNC (for the love of god, do not rehash the primary)

[ON Progressive]

LMAO

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1319028097187020812?s=21

[forsythvoter]

I think the article was trying to make the case that there are still a lot of Trump supporters in the ATL suburbs, which is true (he will still win counties like Forsyth and Cherokee). However, what was lost in the article is that it is also true that Trump has lost support in the ATL suburbs since 2016 and these reduced margins are what's problematic for his campaign. The GOP can't afford to win a county like Forsyth by just 65-33, given the big D margins coming out of urban and inner suburban Atlanta.

LMAO

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1319028097187020812?s=21

[Gass3268]

Natalie Pontius is too.

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1319637564295348225?s=20

[Bootes Void]

Thus is the NyTines worst article.saying republicans in Georgia supporting Trump isn't interesting

[Landslide Lyndon]

Your liberal media at work.

[WD]

You hate to see it.

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1319669311817003008?s=19

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

You hate to see it.

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1319669311817003008?s=19

So the story here is "Republicans intend to vote for the Republican president." Insightful