Georgia suburbanites sticking with Trump

[Tintrlvr]

Saving this for when Biden cracks 60% in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett is the poorest, most diverse of Atlanta's northern suburbs.  

Well, Fulton County has the highest MHI of any county in the entire state of Georgia, so not sure what this argument is getting you.

Based on incorrect information, never mind.

[lfromnj]

Saving this for when Biden cracks 60% in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett is the poorest, most diverse of Atlanta's northern suburbs.  

Biden is gonna win Cobb and ex-Milton too.

Biden will not approach anywhere near 60% in Cobb or North Fulton, even though these counties are both becoming increasingly diverse (South Cobb is essentially an extension of West Atlanta/Douglas, it's over 60% Black.)  He may break 60% in Gwinnett only because it's the poorest, most downscale of Atlanta's northern suburban counties.  There really aren't these Romney-Clinton voters you obsess over as much as there are Romney-Clinton places.  

Also:  how come when talking about Georgia's suburban Romney-Clinton counties no one seems to give any love to South Atlanta's Henry County (even though it's the most Democratic of any of them)?  Might it have something to do with it only being 55% White and 36% college-educated?  Doesn't quite fit your narrative I guess, hmm?

Because its not as big?,

Mccain +8 to +16 Abrams is a pretty big shift?

It is true most of the shift is mostly demographical changes in Georgia. However there are inner ring white suburbanites in areas like GA 6th that are definitely shifting left.

[Del Tachi]

Saving this for when Biden cracks 60% in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett is the poorest, most diverse of Atlanta's northern suburbs. 

Well, Fulton County has the highest MHI of any county in the entire state of Georgia, so not sure what this argument is getting you.

Uhm...excuse me?

Fulton MHI:  $58,8

Forsyth:  $91,8
Cobb:  $68,9
Cherokee:  $72,6
Paulding:  $61,0
Oconee:  $76,0
Fayette:  $81,7
Coweta:  $65,3

Source

[lfromnj]

Although if you look at the "suburban " part of Atlanta proper which is Buckhead in the north , depending on how you define it, its actually a Clinton-Kemp area !.

[Tintrlvr]

Saving this for when Biden cracks 60% in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett is the poorest, most diverse of Atlanta's northern suburbs.  

Well, Fulton County has the highest MHI of any county in the entire state of Georgia, so not sure what this argument is getting you.

Uhm...excuse me?

Fulton MHI:  $58,8

Forsyth:  $91,8
Cobb:  $68,9
Cherokee:  $72,6
Paulding:  $61,0
Oconee:  $76,0
Fayette:  $81,7
Coweta:  $65,3

Source

Maybe Wikipedia has the data wrong, I just looked quickly there:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Georgia_(U.S._state)_locations_by_per_capita_income

They have:

Fulton: 87.6
Fayette: 82.2
Oconee: 74.3
etc.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It is true most of the shift is mostly demographical changes in Georgia. However there are inner ring white suburbanites in areas like GA 6th that are definitely shifting left.

You're right to specifically point out GA-06. Whites in GA-06 vote significantly to the left of GA-07, GA-04, GA-13, and GA-11 (the other Atlanta suburban districts.) Biden could win them outright this time around while he's unlikely to come close in the other districts.

[lfromnj]

Infact according to Census estimates Henry county went from 38% black to 45% black from 2010 to 2018 !.

Basically all those black people leaving Detroit,Engelwood,Milwaukee,Gary etc are all going to Atlanta or other areas.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Although if you look at the "suburban " part of Atlanta proper which is Buckhead in the north , depending on how you define it, its actually a Clinton-Kemp area !.

Buckhead under any normal definition is Clinton+12 and Abrams+13.

[Tintrlvr]

Although if you look at the "suburban " part of Atlanta proper which is Buckhead in the north , depending on how you define it, its actually a Clinton-Kemp area !.

Really? Do we have a precinct map of the 2018 election? That would be very surprising, especially since Fulton trended D from 2016 to 2018.

[Malarkey Decider]

Saving this for when Biden cracks 60% in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett is the poorest, most diverse of Atlanta's northern suburbs. 

Biden is gonna win Cobb and ex-Milton too.

Biden will not approach anywhere near 60% in Cobb or North Fulton, even though these counties are both becoming increasingly diverse (South Cobb is essentially an extension of West Atlanta/Douglas, it's over 60% Black.)  He may break 60% in Gwinnett only because it's the poorest, most downscale of Atlanta's northern suburban counties.  There really aren't these Romney-Clinton voters you obsess over as much as there are Romney-Clinton places. 

Also:  how come when talking about Georgia's suburban Romney-Clinton counties no one seems to give any love to South Atlanta's Henry County (even though it's the most Democratic of any of them)?  Might it have something to do with it only being 55% White and 36% college-educated?  Doesn't quite fit your narrative I guess, hmm?

I agree that Henry county is underrated. Another neglected county I would note is Newton County, which Obama and Clinton won by 1/2/2, but Abrams won by 9.

[DrScholl]

Saving this for when Biden cracks 60% in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett is the poorest, most diverse of Atlanta's northern suburbs. 

Biden is gonna win Cobb and ex-Milton too.

Biden will not approach anywhere near 60% in Cobb or North Fulton, even though these counties are both becoming increasingly diverse (South Cobb is essentially an extension of West Atlanta/Douglas, it's over 60% Black.)  He may break 60% in Gwinnett only because it's the poorest, most downscale of Atlanta's northern suburban counties.  There really aren't these Romney-Clinton voters you obsess over as much as there are Romney-Clinton places. 

Also:  how come when talking about Georgia's suburban Romney-Clinton counties no one seems to give any love to South Atlanta's Henry County (even though it's the most Democratic of any of them)?  Might it have something to do with it only being 55% White and 36% college-educated?  Doesn't quite fit your narrative I guess, hmm?

Democrats outvoted Republicans 61-39 in the primary this year in Cobb County so I wouldn't be so sure about that. That's not guaranteed to be an exact mirror of the general election, but it does show a massive shift from previous years. With that said, Biden doesn't even need to reach 60% there to hit the winning benchmark, he only needs about 55-56%.

[lfromnj]

Although if you look at the "suburban " part of Atlanta proper which is Buckhead in the north , depending on how you define it, its actually a Clinton-Kemp area !.

Really? Do we have a precinct map of the 2018 election? That would be very surprising, especially since Fulton trended D from 2016 to 2018.

Its on DRA, I don't know the exact definitions of Buckhead but lets use the GOP's definition. This is the part of Atlanta in Georgia 11th,FWIW the GOP didn't shove this in GA 11th instead of GA6th or 5th for partisan purposes, instead Buckhead is where the governor's mansion is and Nathan Deal didn't want to be represented by David Price who endorsed his opponent in 2010 and putting Buckhead in the district makes little partisan difference for GA 6th.


Anyway the GOP definition is probably the richest parts of Buckhead and its +4 Trump and +6 Kemp. If we took a few more precincts close by you could form a narrow Clinton-Kemp area in north Atlanta.



So didn't really mean Buckhead proper but I did take in the richest parts of Atlanta by my guess as thats the part the GOP would want in their districts.

[Tintrlvr]

Saving this for when Biden cracks 60% in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett is the poorest, most diverse of Atlanta's northern suburbs. 

Biden is gonna win Cobb and ex-Milton too.

Biden will not approach anywhere near 60% in Cobb or North Fulton, even though these counties are both becoming increasingly diverse (South Cobb is essentially an extension of West Atlanta/Douglas, it's over 60% Black.)  He may break 60% in Gwinnett only because it's the poorest, most downscale of Atlanta's northern suburban counties.  There really aren't these Romney-Clinton voters you obsess over as much as there are Romney-Clinton places. 

Also:  how come when talking about Georgia's suburban Romney-Clinton counties no one seems to give any love to South Atlanta's Henry County (even though it's the most Democratic of any of them)?  Might it have something to do with it only being 55% White and 36% college-educated?  Doesn't quite fit your narrative I guess, hmm?

I agree that Henry county is underrated. Another neglected county I would note is Newton County, which Obama and Clinton won by 1/2/2, but Abrams won by 9.

Newton is a weird one because it was trending hard Democratic during the '00s and then seems to have mostly stopped. I wonder if it's just too far away from Atlanta to get enough black suburbanites moving in to really shift it to strongly Democratic. 2018 was probably mostly differential turnout there (bad turnout with lower income white voters, decent turnout with black voters).

[Adam Griffin]

What if all suburbs come home?

What can they get with Biden?
High taxes, high unemployment, depression.

Honestly, the suburbs deserve all of that. Too bad they won't actually get it.

[lfromnj]

Saving this for when Biden cracks 60% in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett is the poorest, most diverse of Atlanta's northern suburbs. 

Biden is gonna win Cobb and ex-Milton too.

Biden will not approach anywhere near 60% in Cobb or North Fulton, even though these counties are both becoming increasingly diverse (South Cobb is essentially an extension of West Atlanta/Douglas, it's over 60% Black.)  He may break 60% in Gwinnett only because it's the poorest, most downscale of Atlanta's northern suburban counties.  There really aren't these Romney-Clinton voters you obsess over as much as there are Romney-Clinton places. 

Also:  how come when talking about Georgia's suburban Romney-Clinton counties no one seems to give any love to South Atlanta's Henry County (even though it's the most Democratic of any of them)?  Might it have something to do with it only being 55% White and 36% college-educated?  Doesn't quite fit your narrative I guess, hmm?

I agree that Henry county is underrated. Another neglected county I would note is Newton County, which Obama and Clinton won by 1/2/2, but Abrams won by 9.

Newton is a weird one because it was trending hard Democratic during the '00s and then seems to have mostly stopped. I wonder if it's just too far away from Atlanta to get enough black suburbanites moving in to really shift it to strongly Democratic. 2018 was probably mostly differential turnout there (bad turnout with lower income white voters, decent turnout with black voters).

Bill Clinton did win it in 1992,so it seems to have been more of a rural Blue Dog till the 1990's  when it started exurban zing to 62% Bush. Finally black exurbanites moved in and Obama won it in 08 and it has inched left since then.

[Ljube]

What if all suburbs come home?

What can they get with Biden?
High taxes, high unemployment, depression.

Honestly, the suburbs deserve all of that. Too bad they won't actually get it.

The Century Foundation calculated that 933,731 people received their maximum allotment of unemployment insurance payments by Aug. 31, according to Labor Department and Treasury Department data. The number and size of unemployment insurance payments are determined by each state.

If Biden wins, he will continue with the restrictions and possibly impose a new lockdown and these jobs are never going to come back. Biden calls them "not viable". They are viable, just not in a Biden depression.

[Suburbia]

What if all suburbs come home?

What can they get with Biden?
High taxes, high unemployment, depression.

What if crack was free?

What would you get with it?
High, stupid, broke.

Suburbs voting for Biden is irrational.
If they really vote for Biden, it will be voting against their interest.

Shockingly, I'm not looking to vote for someone who calls suburban women like me "housewives".  

Casting your vote based on emotions. And against your interest. Irrational.

There is no rational reason to vote for Trump, no such thing as a rational Trump supporter. Hearing somebody incredibly irrational such as yourself who supports an irrational (and very emotional) fool like Trump call others irrational is just hilariously ironic.

At one time, you might have been able to argue it was within the rational self-interest of rich white businessmen and the like to vote Republican, if that is expanding the size of their pocketbooks was all they were concerned about. But now, Trump’s erratic behavior, idiotic trade wars, horrible mishandling of a crisis that wrecked the economy, etc. make even that no longer the case.

And it’s NEVER been within the rational self-interest of a working class person to vote Republican.

Tell that to the people on Long Island, the cops and firefighters who slobber over Trump.

[skbl17]

The issue is that the NYT is painting a broad brush of metro Atlanta.

It is true that most Trump voters from 2016 who live in the suburbs will stick with Trump this year. Not all (some will vote for Biden, others will stay home or vote Jorgensen,) but many.

That said, it is wrong to say, as the article implies, that "Georgia suburbanites are sticking with Trump". The implication that creates in the reader's mind is that Georgia suburbs are seeing little to no shifts from 2016 to 2020, which is patently absurd, unless by "suburbanites", the NYT means "suburban whites", which is both wrong - college-educated white voters say "hi" - and racially exclusionary (no electoral analysis of Metro Atlanta is complete without discussing the diversification of the suburbs. Is someone like me, an African-American voter who has lived in the Atlanta suburbs for 16 years, not a "suburbanite" in the eyes of the esteemed NYT?)

Although if you look at the "suburban " part of Atlanta proper which is Buckhead in the north , depending on how you define it, its actually a Clinton-Kemp area !.

Really? Do we have a precinct map of the 2018 election? That would be very surprising, especially since Fulton trended D from 2016 to 2018.

Its on DRA, I don't know the exact definitions of Buckhead but lets use the GOP's definition. This is the part of Atlanta in Georgia 11th,FWIW the GOP didn't shove this in GA 11th instead of GA6th or 5th for partisan purposes, instead Buckhead is where the governor's mansion is and Nathan Deal didn't want to be represented by David Price who endorsed his opponent in 2010 and putting Buckhead in the district makes little partisan difference for GA 6th.


Anyway the GOP definition is probably the richest parts of Buckhead and its +4 Trump and +6 Kemp. If we took a few more precincts close by you could form a narrow Clinton-Kemp area in north Atlanta.

The exact definition of Buckhead, according to the Atlanta Regional Commission, is all of the City of Atlanta bounded by Sandy Springs, Cobb County, DeKalb County, I-85, I-75 between Peachtree Creek and the Brookwood interchange, and Peachtree Creek from the Cobb County border to I-75.

IOW, you need to include all the precincts between I-75, I-85, the DeKalb County line, and the southern extent of the DRA map you posted.

[lfromnj]

The issue is that the NYT is painting a broad brush of metro Atlanta.

It is true that most Trump voters from 2016 who live in the suburbs will stick with Trump this year. Not all (some will vote for Biden, others will stay home or vote Jorgensen,) but many.

That said, it is wrong to say, as the article implies, that "Georgia suburbanites are sticking with Trump". The implication that creates in the reader's mind is that Georgia suburbs are seeing little to no shifts from 2016 to 2020, which is patently absurd, unless by "suburbanites", the NYT means "suburban whites", which is both wrong - college-educated white voters say "hi" - and racially exclusionary (no electoral analysis of Metro Atlanta is complete without discussing the diversification of the suburbs. Is someone like me, an African-American voter who has lived in the Atlanta suburbs for 16 years, not a "suburbanite" in the eyes of the esteemed NYT?)

Although if you look at the "suburban " part of Atlanta proper which is Buckhead in the north , depending on how you define it, its actually a Clinton-Kemp area !.

Really? Do we have a precinct map of the 2018 election? That would be very surprising, especially since Fulton trended D from 2016 to 2018.

Its on DRA, I don't know the exact definitions of Buckhead but lets use the GOP's definition. This is the part of Atlanta in Georgia 11th,FWIW the GOP didn't shove this in GA 11th instead of GA6th or 5th for partisan purposes, instead Buckhead is where the governor's mansion is and Nathan Deal didn't want to be represented by David Price who endorsed his opponent in 2010 and putting Buckhead in the district makes little partisan difference for GA 6th.


Anyway the GOP definition is probably the richest parts of Buckhead and its +4 Trump and +6 Kemp. If we took a few more precincts close by you could form a narrow Clinton-Kemp area in north Atlanta.

The exact definition of Buckhead, according to the Atlanta Regional Commission, is all of the City of Atlanta bounded by Sandy Springs, Cobb County, DeKalb County, I-85, I-75 between Peachtree Creek and the Brookwood interchange, and Peachtree Creek from the Cobb County border to I-75.

IOW, you need to include all the precincts between I-75, I-85, the DeKalb County line, and the southern extent of the DRA map you posted.

Fair point, although I assume the southern portion is more just UMC hipsterish, while the parts I took were the old-money very rich parts right?

[DrScholl]

I couldn't draw Buckhead exact on the app as it is shown on Google maps, but I did get close. It's 53-41 Clinton and 55-43 Abrams.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Fair point, although I assume the southern portion is more just UMC hipsterish, while the parts I took were the old-money very rich parts right?

Sort of. Also, they're much denser--lots of skyscrapers and so on. Just compare street view along Peachtree and near the MARTA stations vs up towards the Perimeter. Regardless, you excluded a huge chunk of what's usually considered Buckhead.

[Adam Griffin]

"Metro Atlanta" is a very subjective concept given its sprawl. Depending on how you want to draw it, it can include anywhere from 2.5m to 6m people. However, if you want to draw whole counties together while avoiding too much exurban/rural contamination, I think the below map is most poignant.

This version of the metro is 39% black and contains 5m people. Even if you gut the "black, urban core" (portions of Fulton, Dekalb and Clayton), the remainder is still 28-29% black.

NYT needs to get its s[inks]t together. If it wants to write an article like this, then they should just call it "White Suburban Republicans in GA Still Voting for the Republican".

[Stevie wonder]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

[skbl17]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

Emerson is one pollster. Just in the last week, we've had NYT/Siena (tie,) SurveyUSA (Biden +2,) and Quinnipiac (Biden +7, but with an adjustment to take into account their fairly prounounced lean would still be something like Biden +2 or +3).

Don't look at a single poll; always look at the polling averages, which are (as they currently stand):

- 270toWin: Biden +1.2
- RCP: Biden +1.2
- 538: Biden +1

[Stevie wonder]

The latest polling in for Georgia from Emerson shows Trump with the lead by +1. I think Georgia is a fairly safe bet to go red again for 2020.

Emerson is one pollster. Just in the last week, we've had NYT/Siena (tie,) SurveyUSA (Biden +2,) and Quinnipiac (Biden +7, but with an adjustment to take into account their fairly prounounced lean would still be something like Biden +2 or +3).

Don't look at a single poll; always look at the polling averages, which are (as they currently stand):

- 270toWin: Biden +1.2
- RCP: Biden +1.2
- 538: Biden +1

Bad data in = bad data out. Why would you consolidate multiple polls with bad data into an average which further 'muddies the water'.

The polls have a tendency of not reflecting Trump voters. So for the swing state polls to be showing more favourable results for Trump compared to 2016, goes to go Trump's chances in 2020 are extremely strong.