Georgia suburbanites sticking with Trump

[Storr]

You hate to see it.

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1319669311817003008?s=19

Ladies and gentlemen....we got 'em.

[Indy Texas]

This is like when Salena Zito writes her daily "the blue-collar steelworkers in small-town diners still love Trump" story and then someone googles the names and finds out they're actually all attorneys and bankers who have been on the county GOP committee for the past 20 years.

[RFayette]

You hate to see it.

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1319669311817003008?s=19

So the story here is "Republicans intend to vote for the Republican president." Insightful

There is a certain type of liberal shocked that anyone who has been to college could vote for Trump, so it isn’t a surprise they’d write something like this.

[VAR]

RIP NYTimes

[forsythvoter]

I think the article was trying to make the case that there are still a lot of Trump supporters in the ATL suburbs, which is true (he will still win counties like Forsyth and Cherokee). However, what was lost in the article is that it is also true that Trump has lost support in the ATL suburbs since 2016 and these reduced margins are what's problematic for his campaign. The GOP can't afford to win a county like Forsyth by just 65-33, given the big D margins coming out of urban and inner suburban Atlanta.

LMAO

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1319028097187020812?s=21

Trump ended up winning Forsyth by 65.8 - 32.6, and it had the third largest swing in GA to the Dems, behind Henry and Rockdale counties.

More to the point, the NYT article was just really poorly written and clearly the writer didn't take the time to really understand what was going on in the Atlanta suburbs.

[mileslunn]

I think the article was trying to make the case that there are still a lot of Trump supporters in the ATL suburbs, which is true (he will still win counties like Forsyth and Cherokee). However, what was lost in the article is that it is also true that Trump has lost support in the ATL suburbs since 2016 and these reduced margins are what's problematic for his campaign. The GOP can't afford to win a county like Forsyth by just 65-33, given the big D margins coming out of urban and inner suburban Atlanta.

LMAO

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1319028097187020812?s=21

Trump ended up winning Forsyth by 65.8 - 32.6, and it had the third largest swing in GA to the Dems, behind Henry and Rockdale counties.

More to the point, the NYT article was just really poorly written and clearly the writer didn't take the time to really understand what was going on in the Atlanta suburbs.

A bit of an oversimplification but Atlanta suburbs can be divided into three levels:

1.  Inner suburbs: These have been strongly Democrat for a long time.  Many are majority African-American so goal here was more to increase turnout not swings as barely any here.  DeKalb and Clayton counties examples of this.

2.  Mid level suburbs:  Many of these were semi-rural and fairly white in 2000 thus solidly GOP under Bush, started to drift under Obama but still went GOP for most part.  Clinton flipped these in 2016 while Biden won by double digits.  These are fast growing, lots of college educated whites, but also growing African-American population as well as large Hispanic and Asian population too.  Cobb and Gwinnett counties examples of this.

3.  Far flung suburbs: Still quite white, low population density and more exurban in some ways.  Trump did indeed win here, but these were a decade ago like rest of Northern Georgia where GOP tended to get close to 80%.  Now its about a 2/3 to 1/3 R vs. D split so still solidly GOP, but margins much less than a decade ago.  Forsyth and Cherokee counties examples of this.

[forsythvoter]

I think the article was trying to make the case that there are still a lot of Trump supporters in the ATL suburbs, which is true (he will still win counties like Forsyth and Cherokee). However, what was lost in the article is that it is also true that Trump has lost support in the ATL suburbs since 2016 and these reduced margins are what's problematic for his campaign. The GOP can't afford to win a county like Forsyth by just 65-33, given the big D margins coming out of urban and inner suburban Atlanta.

LMAO

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1319028097187020812?s=21

Trump ended up winning Forsyth by 65.8 - 32.6, and it had the third largest swing in GA to the Dems, behind Henry and Rockdale counties.

More to the point, the NYT article was just really poorly written and clearly the writer didn't take the time to really understand what was going on in the Atlanta suburbs.

A bit of an oversimplification but Atlanta suburbs can be divided into three levels:

1.  Inner suburbs: These have been strongly Democrat for a long time.  Many are majority African-American so goal here was more to increase turnout not swings as barely any here.  DeKalb and Clayton counties examples of this.

2.  Mid level suburbs:  Many of these were semi-rural and fairly white in 2000 thus solidly GOP under Bush, started to drift under Obama but still went GOP for most part.  Clinton flipped these in 2016 while Biden won by double digits.  These are fast growing, lots of college educated whites, but also growing African-American population as well as large Hispanic and Asian population too.  Cobb and Gwinnett counties examples of this.

3.  Far flung suburbs: Still quite white, low population density and more exurban in some ways.  Trump did indeed win here, but these were a decade ago like rest of Northern Georgia where GOP tended to get close to 80%.  Now its about a 2/3 to 1/3 R vs. D split so still solidly GOP, but margins much less than a decade ago.  Forsyth and Cherokee counties examples of this.

This is generally correct, but there are a lot of nuances in the political geography, especially in Fulton, Cobb and Gwinnett Counties.

Cobb and Gwinnett have a mix of urban, mid level suburbs and outer suburbs. For example, most people generally think of Cobb as consisting of three parts:

1) East Cobb (basically the Cobb portion of GA-6) - this is the probably the stereotypical Cobb that most people think of when they think Cobb County. This area is 75-85% white with a sizeable Asian minority in parts and is highly affluent (MHI is probably around 120-150K based on census tract estimates). This area also has one of the highest concentration of college degree holders in the entire state of Georgia. This area, along with neighboring North Fulton is ground zero for the decline in support among college-educated whites for Republicans. Traditionally very Republican (70-80% R before Trump and R even during Carter), East Cobb was basically 50-50 this election, with Democrats winning several precincts in the area probably for the first time in history.

2. South Cobb is the lower half of the county and is the most Democratic part of Cobb. It's quite a diverse part of the county - would estimate the overall population to be around 30-40% white, 30% black, 10-15 Hispanic, 5% Asian. This area is above average in terms of college degree holder and a lot of millennials are moving here as they start families given it's easy access to in-town Atlanta. Many of its neighborhoods (Smyrna and Mableton in particular come to mind) are emblematic of the "New South" that many news articles often quote. Even during the Bush era, this part of the county probably leaned Democratic, and in this election, Biden was winning 70-80% of the vote in many precincts in this area.

3. West Cobb is the remaining part of Cobb and covers basically the parts north of Dallas Highway and West of I-75. This area is probably 65-70% white, with a sizeable black minority. The area is above average in income and education attainment, but not nearly to the extent of East Cobb and in many parts still retains an exurban feel. Parts of the Northwest portion of this area even still have horse ranches! Politically, this area remains the Republican stronghold within Cobb although it too has trended Democratic in the Trump era. This part of Cobb is almost certainly the most conservative - the Tea Party movement was quite strong and visible in this region. Trump received around 60% of the vote here and topped 65% in precincts closer to the Cherokee / Paulding county line. While this sounds like a strong performance, pre-Trump this area was routinely 75-80%+ Republican.

When I have some time, I'll try to write-up Fulton and Gwinnett as well, but they have similarly large variations.

[lfromnj]

East Cobb wasn't that blue as far as I saw, looks like Biden picked up 1 precinct there but its only around a few points for Trump.

[forsythvoter]

East Cobb wasn't that blue as far as I saw, looks like Biden picked up 1 precinct there but its only around a few points for Trump.

Most of Biden's precincts are closer to I-75. If you define East Cobb as anything east of I-75, my calculations actually show Biden narrowly winning east Cobb. If you define it as any precinct that's in GA-6, Trump wins it by 49.3-48.8%.