Quinnipiac: Biden and Trump Tied in TX, Biden +8 in PA

[ProgressiveModerate]

I genuinely can't figure out why we have had several polls now that show Pennsylvania "tightening", while most other well polled swing-states have been pretty consistent.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Another poll that shows tightening in PA.

What?   It was always highly unlikely that Biden would win PA by double digits.


PA's 538 average is Biden +6.2

PA's RCP average is Biden +4.2

PA +8 is a great result for Biden.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

When I saw QPac released another Texas poll, I was pleasantly surprised to see a tie! Them & YouGov have typically been Trump's best pollsters in Texas, so for them to have a tie is pretty great news to me (Especially with Biden winning Hispanics by single-digits apparently).

Senate race could be better, but even that shows a tighter race than their previous polls.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

When I saw QPac released another Texas poll, I was pleasantly surprised to see a tie! Them & YouGov have typically been Trump's best pollsters in Texas, so for them to have a tie is pretty great news to me (Especially with Biden winning Hispanics by single-digits apparently).

Senate race could be better, but even that shows a tighter race than their previous polls.

Yeah, I think this points to a Biden lead in Texas. I still expect Cornyn to eke it out, but it'll be a lot closer than people assume it will be.

I think if Biden does win, he has a good chance of pulling the RRC candidate across the line with him.

[wbrocks67]

I genuinely can't figure out why we have had several polls now that show Pennsylvania "tightening", while most other well polled swing-states have been pretty consistent.

BC unfortunately this election cycle we have been inundated with sh**tty pollsters.

[Liberalrocks]

Plano Joe!

[Hammy]

This poll indicates a statistical tie given how heavily D-biased they are. Clinton was over-polled in PA by a few points and most of the undecideds went to Trump so the actual poll total is likely D 49-48.

Texas on the other hand, their 2018 Texas R number (as I don't see a 2016 poll) was spot on, but Dems over-performed by a few points, so this points to D 49-47.

[Badger]

Those O'Rourke-Trump voters in Laredo, El Paso, Brownsville, and McAllen are sure keeping Trump in this!

I don’t think your average Trump supporter would dare vote for Beto in 2018.

That was sarcasm.

A good proxy for how hispanic voters in Texas vote is looking at, well, the counties where hispanics make up 90%+ of the population. AKA, south Texas/El Paso. And there is nothing to indicate Trump will get anywhere near 40% in those places.

I have to disagree. There's a huge cultural and political divide between relatively newer Hispanic citizens, as in a generation or two removed from the old country, versus those elsewhere in the statement of Bend in Texas for multiple Generations.

There is endemic poverty in South Texas that makes Hispanics are much more democratic voting. You simply can't draw a parallel between them and Hispanics living in Suburban San Antonio or Panhandle.

All that said, ain't no way and Hell Trump is reaching 43% of the Hispanic vote

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2020-10-19

Summary: D: 51%, R: 43%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Texas President by Quinnipiac University on 2020-10-19

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details