IA-NYT/Siena: Biden +3

[Alben Barkley]

Favorabiliites:

Biden 50/47 (+3)
Trump 46/51 (-5)

Greenfield 51/38 (+13)
Ernst 46/47 (-1)

The favorabilities give a bit more into the window of the possible final topline (51-47, 50-46), while there's no way Greenfield is trailing Ernst with those fav differences.

I agree. I’m pissed NYT didn’t push undecideds. This is the first lead for Ernst I’ve seen in months, but it’s misleading when you look at those favorables.

[Alben Barkley]

Even with all the undecideds though... Did Hillary ever have a lead in Iowa this close to the election? I don’t think so. Certainly didn’t have those favorability numbers. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Those favorability numbers are THE critical numbers of the election. They are the single biggest difference between this year and 2016. A popular vs. unpopular candidate is a whole different ballgame from two unpopular candidates.