IA-NYT/Siena: Biden +3
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:02:51 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  IA-NYT/Siena: Biden +3
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: IA-NYT/Siena: Biden +3  (Read 1907 times)
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 21, 2020, 12:23:08 PM »

Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,933
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 12:23:48 PM »

Ernst outperforming Trump? No.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,588
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2020, 12:23:55 PM »

Interesting. Good for Biden, not so good for Greenfield
Logged
Rep Jessica
Jessica
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 831
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2020, 12:25:13 PM »

Sadly, you can see this reflected in the early vote in Iowa. The democrats have a huge lead (120k+)over Trump and that isn't likely a good thing if you're for him. Sad
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,046


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2020, 12:25:24 PM »

I'm glad you changed the title quickly before giving a ton of users here a heart attack. Tongue
Logged
kph14
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2020, 12:26:28 PM »

Biden sits at 50/47 favorability (which I will from now on use as NYT actual headline numbers)
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2020, 12:27:11 PM »

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ia101820-crosstabs/1eff04c308f3dcb1/full.pdf

October 18-20
753 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%
Changes with September 16-22

Biden 46% (+1)
Trump 43% (+1)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (+1)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Not voting for president 0% (n/c)
Don't know/refused 7% (-3)
Logged
soundchaser
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2020, 12:27:47 PM »

Sure seems like a lot of states are moving in Biden’s direction towards the end.
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2020, 12:28:52 PM »

If Trump doesn't score a victory at the debate tomorrow I think he may not have much of a chance.
Logged
Asta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 646


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2020, 12:28:59 PM »

For the last 4 years, I thought Iowa is long gone for Democrats. I still think Iowa will go for Trump but I'll be happy to be proven wrong.
Logged
ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,230
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2020, 12:30:57 PM »

There's a decent possibility that Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Georgia will all be voting blue this election. When is the last time that happened?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2020, 12:31:15 PM »

Favorabiliites:

Biden 50/47 (+3)
Trump 46/51 (-5)

Greenfield 51/38 (+13)
Ernst 46/47 (-1)

The favorabilities give a bit more into the window of the possible final topline (51-47, 50-46), while there's no way Greenfield is trailing Ernst with those fav differences.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2020, 12:31:22 PM »

Just disastrous numbers for Trump.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2020, 12:33:06 PM »

Favorabiliites:

Biden 50/47 (+3)
Trump 46/51 (-5)

Greenfield 51/38 (+13)
Ernst 46/47 (-1)

The favorabilities give a bit more into the window of the possible final topline (51-47, 50-46), while there's no way Greenfield is trailing Ernst with those fav differences.

Leads me to believe the undecideds favor Greenfield, but are just a bit hesitant to pull the trigger.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2020, 12:33:21 PM »

There's a decent possibility that Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Georgia will all be voting blue this election. When is the last time that happened?

Truman in 1948, though Carter came extremely close to doing it in 1976.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,588
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2020, 12:34:02 PM »

Wow Greenfield has great approvals
Logged
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2020, 12:34:40 PM »

The 46/50 approval is the real story in this poll for Trump.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2020, 12:34:45 PM »

I thought they’d release a KS poll ?
Logged
soundchaser
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2020, 12:35:35 PM »


Tomorrow. They mixed up their days and had two people writing Iowa articles.
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2020, 12:35:57 PM »

The underlying numbers look really bad for Trump.
Logged
Roronoa D. Law
Patrick97
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,491
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2020, 12:38:48 PM »

There's a decent possibility that Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Georgia will all be voting blue this election. When is the last time that happened?

Truman in 1948, though Carter came extremely close to doing it in 1976.

Clinton came closer in 92'
Logged
roxas11
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,800
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2020, 12:39:41 PM »

If Trump doesn't score a victory at the debate tomorrow I think he may not have much of a chance.

I feel like it is too little too late for that debate have any real impact because More than 40 million Americans have already voted.


Trump was a fool for walking away from the second debate because had he beat biden in a a debate around that time he may have still had a chance to turn it around but at this point I feel like most voters have made up their minds and no 3rd debate is going to change how they are going to vote
Logged
ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,230
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2020, 12:40:29 PM »

There's a decent possibility that Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Georgia will all be voting blue this election. When is the last time that happened?

Truman in 1948, though Carter came extremely close to doing it in 1976.
Thanks!


That's interesting. 1948 was also the last time a Democratic presidential candidate won an outright majority of the vote in AZ - Biden is on track to do that as well.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2020, 12:41:06 PM »

There's a decent possibility that Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Georgia will all be voting blue this election. When is the last time that happened?

Truman in 1948, though Carter came extremely close to doing it in 1976.

Clinton came closer in 92'

Clinton lost Texas by 3.5%, Carter only lost Iowa by 1%
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2020, 12:43:10 PM »

Favorabiliites:

Biden 50/47 (+3)
Trump 46/51 (-5)

Greenfield 51/38 (+13)
Ernst 46/47 (-1)

The favorabilities give a bit more into the window of the possible final topline (51-47, 50-46), while there's no way Greenfield is trailing Ernst with those fav differences.

I agree. I’m pissed NYT didn’t push undecideds. This is the first lead for Ernst I’ve seen in months, but it’s misleading when you look at those favorables.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 12 queries.