IA-NYT/Siena: Biden +3

[mijan]

Sadly, you can see this reflected in the early vote in Iowa. The democrats have a huge lead (120k+)over Trump and that isn't likely a good thing if you're for him.

Its 136 k now.

[redjohn]

Game over. Trump's going to lose.

[Ferguson97]

Dread it. Run from it. Biden 413 arrives all the same.

[Podgy the Bear]

With her strong favorables and the overall Democratic position, Greenfield is going to pull ahead and win it.  Ernst at 45 will be her ceiling.

[Alben Barkley]

Even with all the undecideds though... Did Hillary ever have a lead in Iowa this close to the election? I don’t think so. Certainly didn’t have those favorability numbers. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Those favorability numbers are THE critical numbers of the election. They are the single biggest difference between this year and 2016. A popular vs. unpopular candidate is a whole different ballgame from two unpopular candidates.

[Rand]

Sadly, you can see this reflected in the early vote in Iowa. The democrats have a huge lead (120k+)over Trump and that isn't likely a good thing if you're for him.

Delicious tears.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Sadly, you can see this reflected in the early vote in Iowa. The democrats have a huge lead (120k+)over Trump and that isn't likely a good thing if you're for him.

If it makes you feel any better, Jess: putting aside what losing Iowa means for other states, it's is a bit like a NV-flip for Trump in that its six EC votes really don't make a difference in a vast majority of scenarios.  

[Badger]

There's a decent possibility that Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Georgia will all be voting blue this election. When is the last time that happened?

Carter and Bill Clinton each took three out of the four when they were elected, but all four of them voting democratic requires going back all the way to (checks election results page) 1936!

[Hope For A New Era]

BEWARE THE UNDECIDEDS

(sorry, just very afraid of a KY-GOV 2015 scenario here)

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

There's a decent possibility that Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Georgia will all be voting blue this election. When is the last time that happened?

Carter and Bill Clinton each took three out of the four when they were elected, but all four of them voting democratic requires going back all the way to (checks election results page) 1936!

Another poster already answered, it was Truman in 1948!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

BEWARE THE UNDECIDEDS

(sorry, just very afraid of a KY-GOV 2015 scenario here)

I wouldn't worry too much about undecideds en masse.  KY-GOV 2015 featured a pretty remarkable and hard unidirectional undecided swing.  And besides, we're not working with anywhere near the same circumstances here.  

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Iowa President by Siena Research Institute on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 46%, R: 43%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details