KS - co/efficient / Keep Kansas Great (R): Marshall+12
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  KS - co/efficient / Keep Kansas Great (R): Marshall+12
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Author Topic: KS - co/efficient / Keep Kansas Great (R): Marshall+12  (Read 1228 times)
n1240
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« on: October 21, 2020, 09:15:47 AM »

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175-48a3-d987-ab7f-cef7305b0000

Marshall 51
Bollier 39

10/18-20, 2453 LV

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 09:20:34 AM »

Numbers are way too favorable to Trump and Marshall - I don't see Trump winning by 17%, he is tanking in the 3rd district. Still, 12% in an internal is pretty decent in a race viewed as a tossup, and it would seem that most undecided voters are leaning Trump for president.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2020, 09:21:46 AM »

MoE: 3.7%
Changes with September 15-16

Marshall 51% (+8)
Bollier 39% (n/c)
Buckley (L) 2% (n/c)
Undecided 8% (-8)
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2020, 09:22:44 AM »

Good poll for Marshall... sort of. On the one hand he's winning by 12%, but the sample seems quite Trump-friendly. On the other hand, he is underperforming Trump by 5%, which could be problematic if the other KS polls we see that only have Trump up by mid to high single digits are true.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2020, 09:30:48 AM »

LMAO, Marshall with a positive fav versus a -12 for Bollier? Again, junk this. Hard.
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Woody
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2020, 09:31:29 AM »

Safe R.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2020, 09:38:28 AM »

This may be too rosy for Marshall, but Likely R. Closer to Lean than Safe.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2020, 10:20:22 AM »

Itís an internal but it proves once more anything beyond 51 seats is a pipe dream for Dems
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2020, 10:22:31 AM »

Itís an internal but it proves once more anything beyond 51 seats is a pipe dream for Dems

AK and MT are still Tossups and so are both GA seats, D's are expected to lose since Kobach wasn't the nominee
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2020, 10:24:54 AM »

Marshall winning by double digits in a massive D wave when Republicans are in danger of losing IA? Suuuuure.

Tossup remains Tossup.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2020, 10:25:39 AM »

This poll also has Trump +17.  Obviously neither number is accurate, but Bollier running 5 points ahead of Biden is pretty normal.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2020, 10:27:36 AM »

Definitely exaggerated, and not in line with other polls we've seen, but I don't buy this race being a Toss-Up or more likely to flip than IA or MT. I'd call this Lean R.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2020, 10:39:27 AM »

This is a real internal at least compared to the last one, which was a hit job by Kobach's people.


Before Trump got covid my expectations were for Marshall to win by about 12%. Trump underperforming would drag him lower though.

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YE
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2020, 10:41:36 AM »

The NRSCC wouldn't be spending here if this was really a 12 point race.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2020, 10:50:03 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2020, 10:53:11 AM by Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee »

Something worth pointing out,

The Civiqs poll and this one have Marshall in the 80s with Republicans, while the Kobach internal with Bollier leading had him in the 60s with Republicans.

That said it seems this poll is also trying to play 4 D chess. This is basically a pro-Trump internal that is painting a rosy picture of Trump and then trying to say, "All Marshall has to do to secure this race, is tie himself close to Trump".


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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2020, 11:13:39 AM »


Tanking is an understatement. Biden signs were everywhere in Johnson County all the way back in July. I imagine it's even more extreme now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2020, 11:36:52 AM »

I can believe this poll, most polls in SC, MT and KS have been internal polls, the only reason it's been this completetive is due to Gov Kelly, but Marshall is stronger than Kobach
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2020, 12:11:53 PM »

Marshall winning by double digits in a massive D wave when Republicans are in danger of losing IA? Suuuuure.

Tossup remains Tossup.
I seem to remember you hyping up the D internal showing Jones ahead by one.. despite every other independent pollster so far showing a wildly different result.


At least be consistent.
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Continential
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2020, 12:24:28 PM »

Marshall winning by double digits in a massive D wave when Republicans are in danger of losing IA? Suuuuure.

Tossup remains Tossup.
I seem to remember you hyping up the D internal showing Jones ahead by one.. despite every other independent pollster so far showing a wildly different result.


At least be consistent.
IndyRep is a "personality", by meming about Safe R Iowa and #populists.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2020, 03:13:52 PM »

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Other Source on 2020-10-20

Summary: D: 39%, R: 51%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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