KY (Mason-Dixon): McConnell +9

[VAR]

McConnell 51%
McGrath 42%

https://wfpl.org/mcconnell-leads-mcgrath-by-9-points-in-new-poll

[wbrocks67]

This seems about right. McGrath will get closer than anyone has but won't pull it out.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 12-15
625 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Barron (L) 4%
Undecided 3%

I can't fault the KYDEMs for occasionally dropping the ball while otherwise fighting admirably in a battle against their state's partisan lean, but they may have picked the worst election to do that.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201021_KY_MasonDixon.pdf

[VAR]

Favorabilities:
McConnell: 44/43 (+1)
McGrath: 32/45 (-13)

Lol

[morgieb]

Would Adkins have a chance here? If someone as terrible as McGrath is keeping it within single digits....

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Would Adkins have a chance here? If someone as terrible as McGrath is keeping it within single digits....

Absolutely, although part of McConnell's strength is hidden by this margin: if he was actually trailing the Democratic nominee, he could pork-barrel and campaign his way towards eroding a fair chunk of said nominee's support.

If McGrath keeps the margin anywhere near this figure on election night, then - despite trends - Democrats should try to find a suitable nominee for 2026 in the event that this is a Republican midterm and McConnell runs again.

[MATTROSE94]

I think that Charles Booker, Rocky Adkins, or Steve Beshear could have narrowly defeat Mitch McConnell this year. Kentucky (much like Texas and maybe North Carolina) is another state where the Democrats messed on candidate vetting this year.

[TML]

Also note that this survey has McConnell's favorability rating much higher than his approval rating as a Senator. A similar thing happened back in his 2014 race - exit polls from back then had his net favorability rating among voters at even, despite his Senate approval rating being well underwater.

[Xing]

Probably underballing McConnell's margin, but if McConnell really does have slightly above water approvals in KY, then KY deserves him (the rest of us don't, though.)

[KYRockefeller]

I think that Charles Booker, Rocky Adkins, or Steve Beshear could have narrowly defeat Mitch McConnell this year. Kentucky (much like Texas and maybe North Carolina) is another state where the Democrats messed on candidate vetting this year.

Agree on the last two, but not the first.  Whatever far-left support Booker might generate in Louisville/Lexington would get swamped out by the rest of the state and Mitch would coast to an easy win without having to do much.  Running on the Green New Deal in Eastern KY would be too easy for Mitch to blast in ads, for example.  And Booker only won like 5 counties against McGrath in the primary and didn't win the big ones by extraordinary margins.

I've said for a long time that a New Deal Democrat can win in Kentucky but someone of the Bernie/AOC variety is not going to have a prayer unless they are running in Louisville's Congressional District.  Adkins would've been a great nominee for Dems to run and I think they should look at putting him up in 2022 versus Rand Paul.  But I don't know if Adkins pro-life positions would get through a primary.

I will say this about Mitch:  A lot of voters never like him until about a month out from the election and then they decide to vote for him after considering his challengers.  He closes well.

[Pollster]

McGrath should just go total scorched earth on McConnell for the next 2 weeks and spend as much of her mistakenly earned money as possible before distributing what is left to other Democrats after she loses. Might as well end your political career with a bang.

[Roll Roons]

The real question is how many counties McGrath carries. My guess is she wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin, Elliott (it voted D in literally every statewide race last year) and probably one or two more random ones in EKY.

[Benjamin Frank]

Is this close enough to provide coattails for Josh Hicks to win in the 6th district?

[Alben Barkley]

I think that Charles Booker, Rocky Adkins, or Steve Beshear could have narrowly defeat Mitch McConnell this year. Kentucky (much like Texas and maybe North Carolina) is another state where the Democrats messed on candidate vetting this year.

Agree on the last two, but not the first.  Whatever far-left support Booker might generate in Louisville/Lexington would get swamped out by the rest of the state and Mitch would coast to an easy win without having to do much.  Running on the Green New Deal in Eastern KY would be too easy for Mitch to blast in ads, for example.  And Booker only won like 5 counties against McGrath in the primary and didn't win the big ones by extraordinary margins.

I've said for a long time that a New Deal Democrat can win in Kentucky but someone of the Bernie/AOC variety is not going to have a prayer unless they are running in Louisville's Congressional District.  Adkins would've been a great nominee for Dems to run and I think they should look at putting him up in 2022 versus Rand Paul.  But I don't know if Adkins pro-life positions would get through a primary.

I will say this about Mitch:  A lot of voters never like him until about a month out from the election and then they decide to vote for him after considering his challengers.  He closes well.

Agree with all of this.

I still really wish Adkins had run.

[KYRockefeller]

I think that Charles Booker, Rocky Adkins, or Steve Beshear could have narrowly defeat Mitch McConnell this year. Kentucky (much like Texas and maybe North Carolina) is another state where the Democrats messed on candidate vetting this year.

Agree on the last two, but not the first.  Whatever far-left support Booker might generate in Louisville/Lexington would get swamped out by the rest of the state and Mitch would coast to an easy win without having to do much.  Running on the Green New Deal in Eastern KY would be too easy for Mitch to blast in ads, for example.  And Booker only won like 5 counties against McGrath in the primary and didn't win the big ones by extraordinary margins.

I've said for a long time that a New Deal Democrat can win in Kentucky but someone of the Bernie/AOC variety is not going to have a prayer unless they are running in Louisville's Congressional District.  Adkins would've been a great nominee for Dems to run and I think they should look at putting him up in 2022 versus Rand Paul.  But I don't know if Adkins pro-life positions would get through a primary.

I will say this about Mitch:  A lot of voters never like him until about a month out from the election and then they decide to vote for him after considering his challengers.  He closes well.

Agree with all of this.

I still really wish Adkins had run.

I know Beshear is the toast of the town for national Democrats, but the fact is that if Adkins had beaten him in the Democratic primary that he would have ANNIHILATED Bevin in the governor's race where Beshear only won by like 5,000 votes.  As a moderate GOPer, I'd happily crossover to vote for Adkins if he sought higher office.

[Calthrina950]

This seems about right. McGrath will get closer than anyone has but won't pull it out.

Bruce Lunsford lost to McConnell by 5% in 2008, and Harvey Sloane lost to him by 4% in 1990. I don't think McGrath will get as close as Lunsford or Sloane did, although she could probably come within high single digits if Democrats are having a good night.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This seems about right. McGrath will get closer than anyone has but won't pull it out.

Bruce Lunsford lost to McConnell by 5% in 2008, and Harvey Sloane lost to him by 4% in 1990. I don't think McGrath will get as close as Lunsford or Sloane did, although she could probably come within high single digits if Democrats are having a good night.

Lunsford's loss may have proven to be the most significant Senate loss in the history of the country.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2020-10-15

Summary: D: 42%, R: 51%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Calthrina950]

This seems about right. McGrath will get closer than anyone has but won't pull it out.

Bruce Lunsford lost to McConnell by 5% in 2008, and Harvey Sloane lost to him by 4% in 1990. I don't think McGrath will get as close as Lunsford or Sloane did, although she could probably come within high single digits if Democrats are having a good night.

This turned out to be very optimistic, almost fantastical, in hindsight. McGrath lost to McConnell by 20%, doing worse than all of McConnell's prior vanquished opponents (Huddleston, Sloane, Beshear, Lunsford, and Lundergan-Grimes) with the exception of Lois Combs Weinberg, who lost to McConnell by 30% in 2002. McGrath only won three counties-Fayette, Franklin, and Jefferson-which last voted for McConnell in 2002. 2002, in fact, was the only election in which McConnell carried Franklin County. But he won Elliott County for the first time ever, and carried all of the other rural counties which these previous Democrats had won against him.