New Research Tool Predicts Landslide for Gore in 2008, Defeat for Hillary

[Politico]

Excerpts:

Los Angeles, CA (PRWEB) May 29, 2006 -- A new behavior prediction tool is forecasting a landslide victory for former Democratic Vice President Al Gore in the 2008 presidential election. However, should Hillary Clinton gain the Democratic nomination, any potential Republican challenger will win the presidency.

These are among the surprising findings reported by Dr. James N. Herndon, a media psychologist with Media Psychology Affiliates. Using a new research tool called Affective Encryption Analysis, Dr. Herndon led an investigation into the likely outcome of the 2008 Presidential election.

“Affective Encryption Analysis is a new behavior forecasting tool that looks at how our feelings and emotions can influence our long-term actions,” explains Dr. Herndon. “Traditional survey techniques are not very good at predicting trends. Affective Encryption Analysis was developed to dig deeper into the emotional factors that control our future behaviors.”

Although created as a potential tool for the intelligence community, Affective Encryption Analysis has seen its early uses in the political arena.

“Voter behavior is not primarily issue-driven,” states Dr. Herndon. “Subtle emotional factors drive our actions at the ballot box. When we decided to study the potential outcome of the 2008 Presidential election, we had no preconceptions about what we’d find. Nonetheless, there were some surprises.”

Among the surprises was the overall weakness of potential Democratic presidential challengers.

“Despite the widespread public dissatisfaction with the George W. Bush administration, our results showed even greater ill-feelings toward potential Democratic challengers,” says Dr. Herndon. “But there was one exception: Al Gore.”

“With a predictive accuracy of 93%, our results showed that Al Gore would easily defeat any Republican challenger in 2008. However, he is the only Democrat on the scene today who has the ability to defeat the likely Republican challengers, who we believe will be either John McCain or Jeb Bush.”

Results were not rosy for Hillary Clinton. “Hillary Clinton would suffer a disastrous defeat at the hands of any Republican who receives the nomination,” states Dr. Herndon.

Should Al Gore decide not to seek the 2008 nomination, the Democrats “have their work cut out for them,” according to Dr. Herndon.

Media Psychology Affiliates is a media research and analysis firm based in Los Angeles and Coburg, Germany.

Source: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2006/5/prweb391395.htm

[Gabu]

I like how not one word is dedicated to how this tool actually works, disabling people's ability to find fault in it.

He lost me when he declared that the GOP nomination would be between John McCain and Jeb Bush.

[minionofmidas]

The interview with this Herndon guy, linked from the page, has a bit about it ... though not all that much.
Although the part of the interview I liked best was the very very end, which isn't about this model of his at all. What he says there is so true.

[adam]

So this guy creates a research tool designed to kiss Gore's ass and make appear more popular than he really is. This is nothing new. Last I checked, they called this the internet.

[Speed of Sound]

So this guy creates a research tool designed to kiss Gore's ass and make appear more popular than he really is. This is nothing new. Last I checked, they called this the internet.

Ah, but by creating this theory, and spreading it, does that not, by influencing people with it, make the odds of his theory coming true increase?

[Alcon]

So this guy creates a research tool designed to kiss Gore's ass and make appear more popular than he really is. This is nothing new. Last I checked, they called this the internet.

Ah, but by creating this theory, and spreading it, does that not, by influencing people with it, make the odds of his theory coming true increase?

Not significantly.  I doubt that it could turn a competitive race into a "landslide" just because he released this trivial bit of political news.

[TomC]

The interview with this Herndon guy, linked from the page, has a bit about it ... though not all that much.
Although the part of the interview I liked best was the very very end, which isn't about this model of his at all. What he says there is so true.

Did anyone notice in the interview that he hopes his company(?) gets employed by a candidate?

I think the survey or whatever it is is pretty hoakey, but I believe the result is an accurate reflection.

[Boris]

lol, this "Research Tool" is such b.s.

[Speed of Sound]

So this guy creates a research tool designed to kiss Gore's ass and make appear more popular than he really is. This is nothing new. Last I checked, they called this the internet.

Ah, but by creating this theory, and spreading it, does that not, by influencing people with it, make the odds of his theory coming true increase?

Not significantly.  I doubt that it could turn a competitive race into a "landslide" just because he released this trivial bit of political news.

True, but it can have an effect on how people think. Ive always loved this way of working. Predict so that your prediction becomes more correct.

[Reignman]

lol, this "Research Tool" is such b.s.

Indeed.

[Nym90]

So this guy creates a research tool designed to kiss Gore's ass and make appear more popular than he really is. This is nothing new. Last I checked, they called this the internet.

Ah, but by creating this theory, and spreading it, does that not, by influencing people with it, make the odds of his theory coming true increase?

Not significantly.  I doubt that it could turn a competitive race into a "landslide" just because he released this trivial bit of political news.

True, but it can have an effect on how people think. Ive always loved this way of working. Predict so that your prediction becomes more correct.

Well yes, this is a fairly common tactic. Even if something isn't true, repeat it often enough, and people begin to believe it.

[jokerman]

I still don't understand what the hell this is.  I clicked on the website and all it had was some strange video with some person saying meaningless junk and then an email address.

[Reaganfan]

Excerpts:

Los Angeles, CA (PRWEB) May 29, 2006 -- A new behavior prediction tool is forecasting a landslide victory for former Democratic Vice President Al Gore in the 2008 presidential election. However, should Hillary Clinton gain the Democratic nomination, any potential Republican challenger will win the presidency.

These are among the surprising findings reported by Dr. James N. Herndon, a media psychologist with Media Psychology Affiliates. Using a new research tool called Affective Encryption Analysis, Dr. Herndon led an investigation into the likely outcome of the 2008 Presidential election.

“Affective Encryption Analysis is a new behavior forecasting tool that looks at how our feelings and emotions can influence our long-term actions,” explains Dr. Herndon. “Traditional survey techniques are not very good at predicting trends. Affective Encryption Analysis was developed to dig deeper into the emotional factors that control our future behaviors.”

Although created as a potential tool for the intelligence community, Affective Encryption Analysis has seen its early uses in the political arena.

“Voter behavior is not primarily issue-driven,” states Dr. Herndon. “Subtle emotional factors drive our actions at the ballot box. When we decided to study the potential outcome of the 2008 Presidential election, we had no preconceptions about what we’d find. Nonetheless, there were some surprises.”

Among the surprises was the overall weakness of potential Democratic presidential challengers.

“Despite the widespread public dissatisfaction with the George W. Bush administration, our results showed even greater ill-feelings toward potential Democratic challengers,” says Dr. Herndon. “But there was one exception: Al Gore.”

“With a predictive accuracy of 93%, our results showed that Al Gore would easily defeat any Republican challenger in 2008. However, he is the only Democrat on the scene today who has the ability to defeat the likely Republican challengers, who we believe will be either John McCain or Jeb Bush.”

Results were not rosy for Hillary Clinton. “Hillary Clinton would suffer a disastrous defeat at the hands of any Republican who receives the nomination,” states Dr. Herndon.

Should Al Gore decide not to seek the 2008 nomination, the Democrats “have their work cut out for them,” according to Dr. Herndon.

Media Psychology Affiliates is a media research and analysis firm based in Los Angeles and Coburg, Germany.

Source: http://www.prweb.com/releases/2006/5/prweb391395.htm

Yes...and I will be elected to the Presidency in 2016.

[Alcon]

Yes...and I will be elected to the Presidency in 2016.

That's funny.  My behaviour analysis software says that you won't win the vote of a single sane person in the country.

You will, however, win Utah with 56% of the vote.

[adam]

Bah, this is a load of crap. Here is the real scoop on Gore's viability.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm#misc
Just scrool through the polls and see how much of a shoo-in Gore is.

[minionofmidas]

Yes...and I will be elected to the Presidency in 2016.

That's funny.  My behaviour analysis software says that you won't win the vote of a single sane person in the country.

You will, however, win Utah with 56% of the vote.

...and that's the state you'll do worst in!

[MODU]

Bah, this is a load of crap. Here is the real scoop on Gore's viability.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm#misc
Just scrool through the polls and see how much of a shoo-in Gore is.

Al Gore is my hero!  *gag*

[Politico]

Bah, this is a load of crap. Here is the real scoop on Gore's viability.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm#misc
Just scrool through the polls and see how much of a shoo-in Gore is.

How did Nixon poll against LBJ in June of 1966? How did he poll against RFK on June 5 of 1968?

It looks to me like Gore could compete against anybody even though he isn't polling well against John McCain, who is definitely not guaranteed the GOP nomination...I mean, Gore is only down about 10 points against Giuliani, and he's up 17 points on Jeb Bush and 12 points on Dick Cheney, so I'm confident he's polling within the margin of error with every Republican other than Giuliani, McCain, Cheney and Bush...Furthermore, let's not forget that Gore was trailing George W. Bush by 18 points in October of 1998, two years before the general election(1)...And we all know who went on to win the popular vote in the 2000 Election.

Look at the trend for Gore against McCain...He's managed to gain seven points on McCain in a span of nine months, and McCain has dropped nine points in the matchup with Gore, despite the fact that Gore hasn't appeared in a single interview on a TV newshow, or aired a single political ad, and has even repeatedly denied that he is running for president...AND THIS IS AGAINST MCCAIN, a man who is on some sort of TV newshow at least once a week, if not more, it seems...

History tends to repeat itself, and I believe we're witnessing the beginning of Gore's Nixon-esque comeback...

(1) - http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1998/10/27/poll/

[adam]

Bah, this is a load of crap. Here is the real scoop on Gore's viability.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm#misc
Just scrool through the polls and see how much of a shoo-in Gore is.

How did Nixon poll against LBJ in June of 1966? How did he poll against RFK on June 5 of 1968?

It looks to me like Gore could compete against anybody even though he isn't polling well against John McCain, who is definitely not guaranteed the GOP nomination...I mean, Gore is only down about 10 points against Giuliani, so I'm confident he's polling within the margin of error with every Republican other than Giuliani and McCain...Furthermore, let's not forget that Gore was trailing George W. Bush by 18 points in November of 1998...And we all know who went on to win the popular vote in the 2000 Election.

Source: http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1998/10/27/poll/

Only 10 points? Reagan only beat Carter by 9. There is no justification for these poll numbers, the few random polls that showed Gore trailing by 18 points were partisan to the extreme. The accurate polls showed gore gradually slipping into the polls. I am certain that had the election been a week or two later that Gore would have lost the popular vote as well.

The difference between Gore and Nixon is massive. Nixon had the luxury of running against Huber Humphrey in the 60s and didn't face a serious competitor in 68'. The only thing Nixon had going against himw as partisan polling and the large peace movement. Gore on the otherhand faces a massive field of strong candidates for the nomination and an even stronger field of candidates for the presidency. Gore is old news where as Nixon was stayed in the spot light constantly.

Also, Nixon lost to who some would argue is the greatest president in the history of the United States, JFK. Who did Gore lose to? A goofy governor from Texas who couldn't talk to save his ass. To make it worse, Gore was the incumbent 8 year VP of a very popular administration...who was Nixon? Nixon's loss was excusible, Gore's loss was humiliating.

Gore is going nowhere in the polls.

[Politico]

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Really? I'd love to hear you explain why Gore has, over a nine month period, boosted his support by seven points in a hypothetical matchup against McCain.

If he could be completely written off as a joke like Dennis Kucinich he wouldn't be polling ahead of Cheney and Jeb Bush, nor would he be polling second behind Hillary Clinton. Yes, he's trailing Giuliani and McCain, but that's true of every Democratic candidate, and there is no guarantee that McCain or Giuliani will be the GOP candidate.

BTW, Nixon beat a guy named Ronald Reagan in 1968 and was the VP of a popular president named Dwight Eisenhower. Like Gore, Nixon should not have lost the 1960 election. Like Gore, Nixon probably lost because of a simple mistake in the first debate of the campaign (Gore's sighs did him in - Nixon's decision to appear before a television audience looking like crap, especially next to handsome JFK, did him in)

[Lincoln Republican]

I have to agree with Politico.

Gore is capable of a comeback.

He may be just be the right combination of experience and name recognition that voters will be looking for in 2008, after 8 years of Republican administration.

A Republican administration, who, if they do not turn things around before 2008, will be sending voters flocking to the Democratic candidate, in order to change. 

[jokerman]

Well, he could challenge Hillary to the left and possibly beat her.  Then, of course, he would be in absolutely no condition to win in the general.  I think his chances are slim.

[Boris]

Gore is definitely capable of comeback, but Captain Vlad made some excellent points regarding the comparison of Gore to Nixon. Unlike Nixon, Gore will have to fight for the 2008 Democratic Nomination, and against Hillary Clinton, that's not gonna be easy. Clinton can wrap up superdelegates quite easily and will have the luxury of her husband's endorsement.

What I don't get about election 2008 in 2006 is that every poll I've seen favors the GOP. You'd think that the Democrats would be kicking the ass out of every single GOP candidate, but no, they still maintain comfortable leads. Oh well, polls right now are somewhat useless anyway. The real polls will begin in January of 2008.
 

[adam]

Really? I'd love to hear you explain why Gore has, over a nine month period, boosted his support by seven points in a hypothetical matchup against McCain.

That's not Gore going up, That's McCain going down. McCain's popularity is starting to windle away as conservatives take note of his open borders stances and his moderate base takes note of the fact that he isn't really a moderate.

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Again, that has nothing at all to do with Gore. In case you hadn't noticed...everyone is dominating Cheney and Jeb in the polls. The are heavily unpopular figures. I mean come on, Cheney has a lower approval rating than GWB does. Bush on the other hand can be attributed to the factt hat no one wants another Bush in office...at least not for awhile.

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Yes...but look at the deficit by which he trails, and the other people in the list. John Kerry, John Edwards, Joe Biden...with the exception of the lesser known Mark Warner, there isn't an easy to swallow candidate on that list.

 

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The only other candidate really in contention is George Allen, who is likely to concerned about this years senate race to even be thinking of 2008. I mean seriously, do you really think that George Pataki is going to come from out of nowhere and sweep the election away? The only curveball will be if Giuliani decides against running which I doubt he will. All this would do is give McCain a landslide victory.

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Reagan in 68' was nothing more than an experienced California governor, where as Nixon was a 22 year congressman from California - is that really a suprise? Unlike Gore, Nixon ran against a classy and articulate candidate that people really liked. The Eisenhower administration was a popular one, but mainly among army personel and older people. By 1960, it had left a dry taste in the mouth of the youth. JFK was a worthy opponent, GWB was just an inexperienced governor of Texas who happened to have the name Bush...which in reality probably wasn't much help.

[/quote]

[minionofmidas]

That's not Gore going up, That's McCain going down. McCain's popularity is starting to windle away

Yes ... and he's pretty much the only credible candidate the Republicans have. Look at how Jeb Bush's doing against Gore... that's also pretty much how a "generic Republican" would be doing.