PA-10 - NRCC/Perry Internal: Perry +4

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-perry-nrcc-poll-perry-48-depasquale-44/96279/?fbclid=IwAR39GBjIQDiJuS5LTj0GgXMlNssEUwL0Oom96YMWU0rEmBme_qTNCqFIicM

48% Perry, 44% DePasquale, 8% undecided. No presidential numbers.

I have maintained since the start of the cycle that Perry is far more likely to lose than Fitzpatrick.

[KaiserDave]

Agreed entirely. I expect Fitzpatrick to win and Perry to lose.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Conducted by the Tarrance Group
October 13-15
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

[wbrocks67]

Yeah I don't think Perry is holding on here.

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty weak for an internal.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I wouldn’t say “far likelier.” Fitzpatrick is still swimming a lot more heavily against the top of the ticket tide than Perry will. Even if Biden does win Perry’s district, he’ll win Fitzpatrick’s by double digits

[Lief 🗽]

Perry may just be whipping up enough anti-Italian sentiment here to win.

[MT Treasurer]

I have a hard time believing Fitzpatrick is favored to win reelection on a night when Perry is losing in a somewhat more R-friendly district (even if Democrats do have a high floor in PA-10). Fundamentals certainly do matter, and we’ve seen more than enough other "moderate" and/or "strong" Republicans struggling to secure even a very limited number of crossover votes this cycle, so I’m not sure if it’s wise to bet on Fitzpatrick being the exception here because of his strengths as a candidate or the "candidate quality" of his opponent.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I have a hard time believing Fitzpatrick is favored to win reelection on a night when Perry is losing in a somewhat more R-friendly district (even if Democrats do have a high floor in PA-10). Fundamentals certainly do matter, and we’ve seen more than enough other "moderate" and/or "strong" Republicans struggling to secure even a very limited number of crossover votes this cycle, so I’m not sure if it’s wise to bet on Fitzpatrick being the exception here because of his strengths as a candidate or the "candidate quality" of his opponent.

Fitzpatrick compromised on the ACA (much more substantial than most "moderate FF" types) and, more crucially, has the support of certain local, influential unions. Perry, as far as I'm aware, has nothing similar in his corner.

[wbrocks67]

I have a hard time believing Fitzpatrick is favored to win reelection on a night when Perry is losing in a somewhat more R-friendly district (even if Democrats do have a high floor in PA-10). Fundamentals certainly do matter, and we’ve seen more than enough other "moderate" and/or "strong" Republicans struggling to secure even a very limited number of crossover votes this cycle, so I’m not sure if it’s wise to bet on Fitzpatrick being the exception here because of his strengths as a candidate or the "candidate quality" of his opponent.

I'm one of the few that won't think Fitz will hang on, but even if he loses, it will only be by a pt or two.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I have a hard time believing Fitzpatrick is favored to win reelection on a night when Perry is losing in a somewhat more R-friendly district (even if Democrats do have a high floor in PA-10). Fundamentals certainly do matter, and we’ve seen more than enough other "moderate" and/or "strong" Republicans struggling to secure even a very limited number of crossover votes this cycle, so I’m not sure if it’s wise to bet on Fitzpatrick being the exception here because of his strengths as a candidate or the "candidate quality" of his opponent.

Fitzpatrick compromised on the ACA (much more substantial than most "moderate FF" types) and, more crucially, has the support of certain local, influential unions. Perry, as far as I'm aware, has nothing similar in his corner.

Plus, he’s a strong incumbent facing a very weak opponent.  Perry has run a pretty incompetent campaign, an all-around weak incumbent, and facing one of the best Democratic recruits of the cycle.  Both races will be competitive and both could win/lose, but I do think Perry goes down way before Fitzpatrick.  And like you said, those endorsements by certain union locals are a valuable asset for Fitzpatrick.

[wbrocks67]

I have a hard time believing Fitzpatrick is favored to win reelection on a night when Perry is losing in a somewhat more R-friendly district (even if Democrats do have a high floor in PA-10). Fundamentals certainly do matter, and we’ve seen more than enough other "moderate" and/or "strong" Republicans struggling to secure even a very limited number of crossover votes this cycle, so I’m not sure if it’s wise to bet on Fitzpatrick being the exception here because of his strengths as a candidate or the "candidate quality" of his opponent.

Fitzpatrick compromised on the ACA (much more substantial than most "moderate FF" types) and, more crucially, has the support of certain local, influential unions. Perry, as far as I'm aware, has nothing similar in his corner.

Plus, he’s a strong incumbent facing a very weak opponent.  Perry has run a pretty incompetent campaign, an all-around weak incumbent, and facing one of the best Democratic recruits of the cycle.  Both races will be competitive and both could win/lose, but I do think Perry goes down way before Fitzpatrick.  And like you said, those endorsements by certain union locals are a valuable asset for Fitzpatrick.

You are correct. I would not be surprised if Perry loses and Fitz hangs on. Fitz at least tries to appear like he's running in a swing seat, Perry acts like he's running in an R +30 seat.