An 8-point shift from 2016 sounds about right. I've said this before, but NJ is one of the worst states for Trump demographically - one giant suburb with a lot of diversity and college-educated voters.
NJ isn't "that" terrible for Republicans, considering the demographics. Menendez only won by 11% in a blue wave year. (Granted he is not exactly the greatest candidate)
On paper, NJ should be much bluer with our population of non-whites and college-educated whites.
Hugin was able to hold Menendez to an unimpressive win because he managed to hold a good chunk of the college-educated whites fleeing from the GOP (largely due to Menendez being a disastrous candidate) while simultaneously holding Trump's gains with non-college whites in south NJ. Demographics still look terrible in the state long-term for the GOP against a Dem without Menendez's baggage.
