AZ (Data Orbital): Biden +5

[Rand]

Sorry y'all, I was the one who asked Ljube for his EC map prediction.  Didn't mean to take this thread in the wrong direction. 

If Trump wins it’s also your fault, PQG.

[Alben Barkley]

Based on state fundamentals and not taking polls into consideration too much, I think that this is the most likely outcome.

Too early to consider polls. I will take the polls into consideration during the next week.

What you’ve just posted is one of the most insanely idiotic maps I have ever seen. At no point in your rambling, incoherent defense of this map were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this thread is now dumber for having seen it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[Catalyst138]

I don’t know how people are seeing a Biden +5 poll and saying “tRuMp iS fAvOrEd”

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don’t know how people are seeing a Biden +5 poll and saying “tRuMp iS fAvOrEd”

I think it's a combination of being spoiled by gaudy polls (if you support Biden, of course) and people have this tendency to think that trends will surge in one unchanging direction from now until Election Day. 

[Tintrlvr]

Pre-rounding changes:

October 16-18
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.18%
Changes with October 3-5

Biden 47% (-1)
Trump 42% (-1)
Refused 4% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Other 1% (not previously included)
Undecided 2% (-1)

Interesting that it's "Refused" that went up. It's possible that there are a lot of people who will tell you who they *plan* to vote for but may not be willing you to tell you who they *actually voted* for, which may explain the rise in undecideds in some polls recently: Some people who have already voted early (in person or by mail) are now unwilling to respond to polls.

Because they voted for Trump.

This makes no sense. Why would that be particular to supporters of one candidate? It's one thing to say that Trump voters are shy generally, but another thing to say they, in particular, are willing to say they support Trump but not that they voted for him.

If it's anything at all, it's much more likely to be voters who have stronger beliefs in private ballots, who cut across the spectrum. Exit pollsters know exactly that this happens, although it's become less common over the years (it was more common with voters born in the early 20th century and came of age by the 50s, who are mostly deceased now).

[President Johnson]

I don’t know how people are seeing a Biden +5 poll and saying “tRuMp iS fAvOrEd”

Because the poll doesn't take the #LaptopBump into account.

Anyway, Lean Democratic.

[Hammy]

Based on state fundamentals and not taking polls into consideration too much, I think that this is the most likely outcome.

Too early to consider polls. I will take the polls into consideration during the next week.

Trump will win Wisconsin and Minnesota before he wins Nevada.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don’t know how people are seeing a Biden +5 poll and saying “tRuMp iS fAvOrEd”

I love how we've completely skipped over the "battleground" stage in Arizona.

We've seamlessly gone from "Why isn't Trump winning Arizona by more?" to "Why isn't Biden winning Arizona by more?" in 4 years

[Xing]

Funny, I thought Atlas said that Trump is "improving" in Arizona.

Lean D, closer to Likely than Toss-Up, and "muh 2016 polls" isn't a good argument here because, well... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton-5832.html

[xavier110]

I don’t know how people are seeing a Biden +5 poll and saying “tRuMp iS fAvOrEd”

In Arizona of all places. 2 weeks before the election!

[tenyasha]

At least this one makes more sense than the Big Data "Poll"

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Arizona President by DataOrbital on 2020-10-18

Summary: D: 47%, R: 42%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details