AZ (Data Orbital): Biden +5

[wbrocks67]

Biden 47 (-1)
Trump 42 (-1)

https://www.dataorbital.com/the-blog/breaking-in-arizona-presidential-and-us-races-still-tight-two-weeks-out-from-election-day

Trajectory:

9/21: Biden 49, Trump 47
10/5: Biden 48, Trump 43
10/18: Biden 47, Trump 42

I have no idea how we've regressed with the undecided vote. Also their write up says that both races are "tossups" yet Biden is leading by 5 and Kelly by 6

[Person Man]

Maybe some people just won't vote?

[KaiserDave]

It's just not there yet

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pre-rounding changes:

October 16-18
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.18%
Changes with October 3-5

Biden 47% (-1)
Trump 42% (-1)
Refused 4% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Other 1% (not previously included)
Undecided 2% (-1)

[Roll Roons]

It's just not there yet

I think that sentiment applies more to Georgia and Texas than it does to Arizona.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D

[KaiserDave]

It's just not there yet

I think that sentiment applies more to Georgia and Texas than it does to Arizona.

You're right, it's a reach.

[Sir Mohamed]

Still that many undecideds? The minus 1 each is statistical noise for sure, but still a relatively high number of undecideds this close to the election. Mr. Trump at 42% should cause headaches in HQ though. Biden is enjoyed a pretty stable lead in AZ for the entire election year and I'd be surprised if he didn't win the state next month. I guess it will be Biden +3.5 pts in the end.

[Ljube]

Refused 4?

I remember my post four years ago about those who refused.

Refused=Shy Trump

[Tintrlvr]

Pre-rounding changes:

October 16-18
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.18%
Changes with October 3-5

Biden 47% (-1)
Trump 42% (-1)
Refused 4% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Other 1% (not previously included)
Undecided 2% (-1)

Interesting that it's "Refused" that went up. It's possible that there are a lot of people who will tell you who they *plan* to vote for but may not be willing you to tell you who they *actually voted* for, which may explain the rise in undecideds in some polls recently: Some people who have already voted early (in person or by mail) are now unwilling to respond to polls.

[Ljube]

Pre-rounding changes:

October 16-18
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.18%
Changes with October 3-5

Biden 47% (-1)
Trump 42% (-1)
Refused 4% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Other 1% (not previously included)
Undecided 2% (-1)

Interesting that it's "Refused" that went up. It's possible that there are a lot of people who will tell you who they *plan* to vote for but may not be willing you to tell you who they *actually voted* for, which may explain the rise in undecideds in some polls recently: Some people who have already voted early (in person or by mail) are now unwilling to respond to polls.

Because they voted for Trump.

[redjohn]

AZ is flipping to Biden, the writing's been on the wall for years.

[MillennialModerate]

Tilt D

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Even if you do assume that every one of the 4% of "refused" respondents is sHy TrUmP, that still doesn't get him a lead. In a state that underpolls Democrats. You really have to reach to make this a good poll for Trump. Just say you think the poll itself is wrong for whatever reason.

[Ljube]

Based on state fundamentals and not taking polls into consideration too much, I think that this is the most likely outcome.

Too early to consider polls. I will take the polls into consideration during the next week.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Based on state fundamentals and not taking polls into consideration too much, I think that this is the most likely outcome.

Too early to consider polls. I will take the polls into consideration during the next week.

Deleted my first request bc I didn't want to derail the thread, but that's interesting -- particularly the split between Wisconsin and Michigan. 

[Rand]

Lube, are you this insufferable in person?

[KaiserDave]

Based on state fundamentals and not taking polls into consideration too much, I think that this is the most likely outcome.

Too early to consider polls. I will take the polls into consideration during the next week.

This is delusional

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Based on state fundamentals and not taking polls into consideration too much, I think that this is the most likely outcome.

Too early to consider polls. I will take the polls into consideration during the next week.

Why is Nevada Republican based on fundamentals? If anything's given Republicans hope there (although I think it's safe D anyway), it's the polls.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Would ya give it a rest, Ljube?

[Ljube]

Based on state fundamentals and not taking polls into consideration too much, I think that this is the most likely outcome.

Too early to consider polls. I will take the polls into consideration during the next week.

Why is Nevada Republican based on fundamentals? If anything's given Republicans hope there (although I think it's safe D anyway), it's the polls.

Nevada was hit hard by coronavirus restrictions.
It will swing toward Trump.

[WD]

Based on state fundamentals and not taking polls into consideration too much, I think that this is the most likely outcome.

Too early to consider polls. I will take the polls into consideration during the next week.

L M A O

[Ljube]

Guys, this is how I see the race based on state fundamentals. I may be wrong, of course, it's too early for a real projection.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Sorry y'all, I was the one who asked Ljube for his EC map prediction.  Didn't mean to take this thread in the wrong direction. 

[compucomp]

Based on state fundamentals and not taking polls into consideration too much, I think that this is the most likely outcome.

Too early to consider polls. I will take the polls into consideration during the next week.

Why is Nevada Republican based on fundamentals? If anything's given Republicans hope there (although I think it's safe D anyway), it's the polls.

Nevada was hit hard by coronavirus restrictions.
It will swing toward Trump.

Then put your money where your mouth is, go on PredictIt, and buy NV Dem no shares for 26 cents. You can buy up to $850. It would be almost a 300% return on investment if you're right.