HI: Mason-Dixon: Biden +29
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  HI: Mason-Dixon: Biden +29
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Author Topic: HI: Mason-Dixon: Biden +29  (Read 719 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 20, 2020, 08:39:58 AM »

New Poll: Hawaii President by Mason-Dixon on 2020-10-14

Summary: D: 58%, R: 29%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2020, 08:47:02 AM »

October 12-14
625 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Other 5%
Undecided 8%
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VAR
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2020, 08:47:20 AM »

Trump approval: 35/59 (-24)
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2020, 09:16:20 AM »

Looks like Hawaii might actually trend right for this cycle
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Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre
TheTide
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2020, 09:23:46 AM »

Looks like Hawaii might actually trend right for this cycle

Hawaii likes incumbents. Well, "likes" might not be the right word in this case, but it would explain any Republican trend this time. Of course it would be about the only interesting thing about the Hawaii result.

I would note though that Trump's approval (as posted above) isn't dramatically lower than his national approval.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2020, 09:28:46 AM »

Man, remember when Bush got 46% in 2004 in Hawaii? Now, it seems like Republicans struggle to crack 30%.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2020, 09:41:42 AM »

Man, remember when Bush got 46% in 2004 in Hawaii? Now, it seems like Republicans struggle to crack 30%.

Hawaii's love for incumbent Presidents is really something. Trump will probably improve here relative to 2016 (although he's still going to get crushed obviously).
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2020, 09:51:28 AM »

Looks like Hawaii might actually trend right for this cycle

Polls always seem to underestimate the dominant party in blowout states in my experience (Hillary did way way better than the polls said in California in 2016 for example)?  I wouldn't make too much of it, but that would be interesting if true.
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Asta
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2020, 10:22:23 AM »

It also has something to do with Trump doing better with Asians. Just anecdotally, there are a number of Asians around me who have come around to accept him.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2020, 10:25:01 AM »

It also has something to do with Trump doing better with Asians. Just anecdotally, there are a number of Asians around me who have come around to accept him.

I'm sure your anecdotal experiences are real, but I don't buy that.  Asians swung further away from Republicans in the midterms than Whites, Blacks, or Hispanics.
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ηєω яσηтιєя
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2020, 10:27:54 AM »

It also has something to do with Trump doing better with Asians. Just anecdotally, there are a number of Asians around me who have come around to accept him.
No, your anecdotal statement is NOT fact - Trump is not doing better with Asian voters overall. Also, Biden will 65-70% of the vote in Hawaii.
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支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2020, 10:30:12 AM »

It also has something to do with Trump doing better with Asians. Just anecdotally, there are a number of Asians around me who have come around to accept him.

The Asian crosstabs in this poll are roughly equally D as the other one. The R trend is due to the white crosstab being way Trumpier for some reason (49-38 Biden compared to 70-25 Biden).
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