Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +8 in WI, Biden +4 in PA

[jamestroll]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

[jamestroll]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

I have never understood this presumptuous attitude. X state will never vote more R or D then y state. I think it is a form of status quo bias. People are use to the map being a certain way and cannot process the coming reality that is a Democratic sunbelt and the resulting implications of that elsewhere.

I am just highly skeptical of predicting to far into the future because I feel like people just start to say random things just to make themselves sound smart. But the current trends do suggest that a Democratic victory in PA is boosted by Philly suburbs but they are not near as Democratic as Nova's suburbs making PA more difficult for Democrats than VA.

And I also do not believe that every election from President to City Council will follow exact PVI when polarization will obviously subdue and to be honest polarization is just a buzzword. During the 90s and 2000s were just had many long term out party incumbents who kept being re-elected due to being incumbents.

Expecting all elections to follow an exact formula has been disproven many times including this year!

Parties have really become too ideologically defined to expect a GOP Mayor of New York City or a Democratic Governor of Wyoming in the present days but we shouldn't expect that incumbent Democrats with positive approval ratings are doomed in 2022 just because Biden is in office.

[jamestroll]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

Of course. But just because the philly suburbs (and white educated suburbs in the northeast and midwest, with exceptions such as NOVA) are swinging heavily against Trump does not mean the GOP is finished in these areas post-Trump.

Sunbelt suburbs are a different story simply due to them being more liberal and diverse.

Much of Nova's drift left is demographic changes. Lee Carter won based on demographics and certainly would have been destroyed if  Manassas area had the same demographics today as it did in the 1990s.

I do not expect St. Charles, MO or Hamilton, IN to becoming "democratic counties" but they will be keys to Democratic victories in those states.

[jamestroll]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

I have never understood this presumptuous attitude. X state will never vote more R or D then y state. I think it is a form of status quo bias. People are use to the map being a certain way and cannot process the coming reality that is a Democratic sunbelt and the resulting implications of that elsewhere.

I am just highly skeptical of predicting to far into the future because I feel like people just start to say random things just to make themselves sound smart. But the current trends do suggest that a Democratic victory in PA is boosted by Philly suburbs but they are not near as Democratic as Nova's suburbs making PA more difficult for Democrats than VA.

And I also do not believe that every election from President to City Council will follow exact PVI when polarization will obviously subdue and to be honest polarization is just a buzzword. During the 90s and 2000s were just had many long term out party incumbents who kept being re-elected due to being incumbents.

Expecting all elections to follow an exact formula has been disproven many times including this year!

Parties have really become too ideologically defined to expect a GOP Mayor of New York City or a Democratic Governor of Wyoming in the present days but we shouldn't expect that incumbent Democrats with positive approval ratings are doomed in 2022 just because Biden is in office.

I think you may be taking it a little too far in the other direction there.

Taking PVI as a hard fast unchanging rule is misguided, but at the same time saying there are now rules at all is likewise.

Most of what happened in 2018 fit within what my expected scenario based on a number of factors, so the rules definitely applied there. And if you look at 2016 you see many things that followed on previous results including a multi-cycle trend of Republicans outperforming in good years in the rust belt and under performing in the SW, which you saw in both 2010 and 2014. Compare Ernst's huge win in 2014 to say Gardner's surprisingly narrow one.

I did not say anywhere in my post that there are no rules at all.

But I do remember many people saying that the House would flip back to the GOP and that suburbs would all become GOP again under Trump just because of Garcia's win..


I agree that polling has underestimated Democrats in the southwest and over estimated them in the Midwest the past few cycles but we wont know if polling has been corrected for that for this cycle until the results come in.

As far as 2018 there were not really any conditions of a wave at all. Democrats were able to win the house by winning Democratic trending suburban areas and McCaskill, Heitkamp and Donnelly were essentially remnants of the past and the lack of wave conditions plus their states partisanship made their re-election bids unrealistic. Oh and in McCaskill's case her unpopularity.

[jamestroll]

Taking PVI as a hard fast unchanging rule is misguided, but at the same time saying there are now rules at all is likewise.

You need to retract that because in no way did I say that.

[jamestroll]

Taking PVI as a hard fast unchanging rule is misguided, but at the same time saying there are now rules at all is likewise.

You need to retract that because in no way did I say that.

I never said you did either. Reread my post and please kindly get off your high horse.

I said you were taking it too far the other direction, not that you were going all the way to the other extreme.

Excuse me??

I am not going to the other extreme so I am asking you retract that immediately.