Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +8 in WI, Biden +4 in PA
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  Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +8 in WI, Biden +4 in PA
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +8 in WI, Biden +4 in PA  (Read 3609 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: October 19, 2020, 03:09:42 PM »

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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2020, 03:12:51 PM »

Interesting. I'm not worried about Pennsylvania however, the fundamentals for us are too strong there.
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Darthpi Ė Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2020, 03:14:44 PM »

Into the averages.
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Nathan
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2020, 03:15:55 PM »

There's been a real dearth of decent Pennsylvania polling since the last Reuters/Ipsos poll, but this makes sense given that Trump has more or less triaged Wisconsin but both sides are still going hammer and tongs in the Keystone State.

It would be great if Biden could start pulling away in Arizona and/or North Carolina as insurance--and it seems like he might be, based on the colossal early vote leads the Democrats are racking up in those states.
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Buzz
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2020, 03:16:13 PM »

Would have expected the numbers reversed, but whatever.
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redjohn
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2020, 03:16:30 PM »

Noisy changes. Anyways, let's wait for more polling to see if PA is tightening.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2020, 03:16:43 PM »

PA:

Biden 49% (-2)
Trump 45% (+1)

WI:

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 43% (-/+)
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Hammy
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2020, 03:19:02 PM »

Dems are vastly overestimating PA's chance of flipping relative to MI/WI.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2020, 03:21:57 PM »

Appears to make sense.  Trump is pouring resources into PA and not as much in WI--hence the difference in margins.  But Biden has devoted plenty of attention to win both states comfortably.
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Nathan
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2020, 03:23:08 PM »

Dems are vastly overestimating PA's chance of flipping relative to MI/WI.

What's your read on why this might be? Could it have to do with Pennsylvania having more "rock-ribbed Republican" rural areas as opposed to all the Obama-Obama-Trump or Obama-Romney-Trump counties in rural Michigan and Wisconsin?
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Hammy
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2020, 03:26:42 PM »

Dems are vastly overestimating PA's chance of flipping relative to MI/WI.

What's your read on why this might be? Could it have to do with Pennsylvania having more "rock-ribbed Republican" rural areas as opposed to all the Obama-Obama-Trump or Obama-Romney-Trump counties in rural Michigan and Wisconsin?

Of Trump's flips in 2016, Pennsylvania was the only state where his vote gains from 2012 outweighed Hillary's losses from 2012. In IA/OH/MI, Hillary lost 1-4 votes depending on the state compared to 2012 for every vote Trump picked up (and both lost votes in Wisconsin)--while that doesn't necessarily mean Trump would've lost with higher turnout, it shows that there were more Obama-Trump voters combined with Obama voters simply not liking Hillary and going third party or staying home.

So Pennsylvania is a glaring exception where Republicans actually saw a surge in voters, people who were excited for Trump, rather than some vote flips and people being unhappy with Hillary. So even if it doesn't necessarily guarantee he'll win per se, his support there is a lot stronger than in other states where there's more soft support or swing voters to shave off.
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2020, 03:28:38 PM »

This maps to either Biden being up 7 or 11.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2020, 03:34:47 PM »

Dems are vastly overestimating PA's chance of flipping relative to MI/WI.

What's your read on why this might be? Could it have to do with Pennsylvania having more "rock-ribbed Republican" rural areas as opposed to all the Obama-Obama-Trump or Obama-Romney-Trump counties in rural Michigan and Wisconsin?

Of Trump's flips in 2016, Pennsylvania was the only state where his vote gains from 2012 outweighed Hillary's losses from 2012. In IA/OH/MI, Hillary lost 1-4 votes depending on the state compared to 2012 for every vote Trump picked up (and both lost votes in Wisconsin)--while that doesn't necessarily mean Trump would've lost with higher turnout, it shows that there were more Obama-Trump voters combined with Obama voters simply not liking Hillary and going third party or staying home.

So Pennsylvania is a glaring exception where Republicans actually saw a surge in voters, people who were excited for Trump, rather than some vote flips and people being unhappy with Hillary. So even if it doesn't necessarily guarantee he'll win per se, his support there is a lot stronger than in other states where there's more soft support or swing voters to shave off.

Very good point. I just feel like the fundementals of PA though are far better than those of MI and WI

-PA is more urbanized
-PA is more diverse
-Trump got a higher vote share in rural areas, and there are plenty of suburbs where Ds have room to grow
-Ds did the best in PA in 2018
-Even though the margin is a bit narrower, Biden is polling the highest in PA out of any of the big 3 (50.3%)

and so on.

Also, of the big 3, PA had the most accurate polling

MI and WI are just harder to poll because you have  lot of rural parts of the state that are very swingy and where it's hard to get an accurate sample of voters, hence why they were way off (in Obama's favor) in 2008, and then again for Trump in 2016.

Basically, I buy PA could be closer, but I think the fundementals at this point make it very hard for Trump to be pushed over the edge again.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2020, 03:50:47 PM »

Pennsylvania isn't going to Trump. I'm more confident of Biden winning PA than MI or WI. Hillary hit rock bottom for Democrats, getting 50% in Lackawanna? Combined with her lukewarm performance in the Philadelphia suburbs, all Biden has to do is a modest over performance.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2020, 03:52:00 PM »

Biden and Harris better head to Scranton super fast.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2020, 03:55:18 PM »

Dems are vastly overestimating PA's chance of flipping relative to MI/WI.

They're all probably flipping but yeah I expect PA to be closer than the other two.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2020, 03:55:47 PM »

Trump may have a bit of a higher floor in PA than WI/MI, but he also has far less room to grow than in the other two states without expanding into the suburbs.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2020, 03:55:56 PM »

Would have expected the numbers reversed, but whatever.

I did as well. As recently as March I was expecting Wisconsin to have a Florida 2000 margin.

Despite the poll stability, there have been quite a few surprises this election season.
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afleitch
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2020, 03:58:07 PM »

It's in line with the reported internal polling. If it's an issue, they'll hopefully be on it.
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Itís so Joever
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2020, 03:59:12 PM »

Dems are vastly overestimating PA's chance of flipping relative to MI/WI.
Lol.
PA is the most likely State to flip and has been since the start of Trumpís term.
You have the major demographic changes, the 2018 and 2019 trends, and of course, the limited but still important home-state effect.
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Itís so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2020, 04:00:00 PM »

Seriously, if there is a rust belt state to get worried about, itís Michigan.
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Hammy
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2020, 04:00:22 PM »

Pennsylvania isn't going to Trump. I'm more confident of Biden winning PA than MI or WI. Hillary hit rock bottom for Democrats, getting 50% in Lackawanna? Combined with her lukewarm performance in the Philadelphia suburbs, all Biden has to do is a modest over performance.

Hillary had the smallest drop yet Trump had the biggest gains out of any of the Rust Belt states he won.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2020, 04:02:12 PM »

Pennsylvania isn't going to Trump. I'm more confident of Biden winning PA than MI or WI. Hillary hit rock bottom for Democrats, getting 50% in Lackawanna? Combined with her lukewarm performance in the Philadelphia suburbs, all Biden has to do is a modest over performance.

Hillary had the smallest drop yet Trump had the biggest gains out of any of the Rust Belt states he won.

All Biden needs to do to win is over perform Hillary in the suburbs and Scranton and Pittsburgh. That shouldnít be a problem.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2020, 04:10:04 PM »

Dems are vastly overestimating PA's chance of flipping relative to MI/WI.
Lol.
PA is the most likely State to flip and has been since the start of Trumpís term.
You have the major demographic changes, the 2018 and 2019 trends, and of course, the limited but still important home-state effect.

There isn't going to be a notable "home-state effect" for Biden anywhere other than Delaware.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2020, 04:29:21 PM »

PA
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/topline_reuters_pennsylvania_state_poll_w4_10_19_20.pdf

653 likely voters
MoE: 4.4% for likely voters

Biden 49% (-2)
Trump 45% (+1)
Some other candidate 3% (+2)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 4% (n/c)

Five-way ballot:
Biden 49% (-2)
Trump 45% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (+1)
Some other candidate 2% (+1)
West 1% (+1)
Hawkins 0% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (-1)

WI
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/topline_reuters_wisconsin_state_poll_w4_10_19_20.pdf

663 likely voters
MoE: 4.3% for likely voters

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 43% (-1)
Some other candidate 3% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure 3% (+1)

Five-way ballot:
Biden 51% (-1)
Trump 45% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Some other candidate 2% (+1)
West 1% (+1)
Hawkins 0% (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
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