Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +8 in WI, Biden +4 in PA

[TheLaRocca]

There's been a real dearth of decent Pennsylvania polling since the last Reuters/Ipsos poll, but this makes sense given that Trump has more or less triaged Wisconsin but both sides are still going hammer and tongs in the Keystone State.

It would be great if Biden could start pulling away in Arizona and/or North Carolina as insurance--and it seems like he might be, based on the colossal early vote leads the Democrats are racking up in those states.

Arizona polling underestimates Democrats.

Polling really proving what i've been saying about the midwest for the past 4 years.

[TheLaRocca]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

[TheLaRocca]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

Of course. But just because the philly suburbs (and white educated suburbs in the northeast and midwest, with exceptions such as NOVA) are swinging heavily against Trump does not mean the GOP is finished in these areas post-Trump.

Sunbelt suburbs are a different story simply due to them being more liberal and diverse.

[TheLaRocca]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

Of course. But just because the philly suburbs (and white educated suburbs in the northeast and midwest, with exceptions such as NOVA) are swinging heavily against Trump does not mean the GOP is finished in these areas post-Trump.

Sunbelt suburbs are a different story simply due to them being more liberal and diverse.

Much of Nova's drift left is demographic changes. Lee Carter won based on demographics and certainly would have been destroyed if  Manassas area had the same demographics today as it did in the 1990s.

I do not expect St. Charles, MO or Hamilton, IN to becoming "democratic counties" but they will be keys to Democratic victories in those states.

Of course.

[TheLaRocca]

I wanted to clarify something, in another topic I said Biden would win PA by at least 5+. I think people underestimate Biden's appeal to WWC voters in WPA. He's the only candidate that can win PA by this much. I can easily be wrong about Biden. But going forward after Trump I think the state will vote more to the right of the nation. The only thing that could hurt the GOP going forward is the East is growing and the West is decreasing in population.

Reply:If that's the case those swings occur in MI/WI/OH too.

But good post I agree!

[TheLaRocca]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

I have never understood this presumptuous attitude. X state will never vote more R or D then y state. I think it is a form of status quo bias. People are use to the map being a certain way and cannot process the coming reality that is a Democratic sunbelt and the resulting implications of that elsewhere.

Yeah I have no clue why it’s so god damn hard (and difficult) for people to understand this.

[TheLaRocca]

I see people are saying the Philly suburbs aren't as blue as people think, and yet Biden is on track to get close to Wolf's +30 margin there. People who don't know PA are replying and it shows.

Excuse me, I was born in PA, and lived there for a number of years. I have been following PA politics very closely for 16 years, long enough to have seen the last rodeo of people saying PA was solid Democratic because of the Philly burbs only for Toomey to win twice and Trump to become the first Republican in 28 years to win the state without carrying a single one of the four Philly suburb counties.

I didn't vote for Trump or Biden in this election, and personally would be happy to see Trump gone. But if there is someone that is ignoring the history of this state to make predictions about it's results relative to the national average, it is certainly not I.

So you agree with my analysis of the state voting 3 or 4% to the right of the nation?

I'm thinking 50-47 Biden. What about NC also?

I voted for Trump last time but not this time also.