Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +8 in WI, Biden +4 in PA

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

ayyyyy the pa panic is back boys lmao you love to see it

[jd7171]

I think +4 is Biden's floor. In my opinion the only way Trump wins PA is because he overperforms in the suburbs.  If Biden is going to win PA 8 back, he's going to improve in PA 16,17 and 14. He definitely will get a bounce in the rest of the districts just due to the fact that Hillary bottomed out so bad.

[TheLaRocca]

There's been a real dearth of decent Pennsylvania polling since the last Reuters/Ipsos poll, but this makes sense given that Trump has more or less triaged Wisconsin but both sides are still going hammer and tongs in the Keystone State.

It would be great if Biden could start pulling away in Arizona and/or North Carolina as insurance--and it seems like he might be, based on the colossal early vote leads the Democrats are racking up in those states.

Arizona polling underestimates Democrats.

Polling really proving what i've been saying about the midwest for the past 4 years.

[wbrocks67]

Y'all are so predictable. We go through this every time. There's a dearth of high quality polling in PA, a few lower quality ones have the race at like 3-5 and everyone freaks out. Then we get high quality again and its like 7-10. PA is not voting for Trump and there's no way it moved 3% in a single week.

[VAR]

With third-party candidates:

PA:
Biden 49%
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 2%
West 1% (not on the ballot)
Hawkins 0% (not on the ballot)

WI:
Biden 51%
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 2%
West 1% (not on the ballot)
Hawkins 0% (not on the ballot)

[Crumpets]

FWIW, 538's Pennsylvania forecast didn't change one bit as a result of this poll. Still 87-13 Biden favored, still 53-47 predicted vote share.

[wbrocks67]

With third-party candidates:

PA:
Biden 49%
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 2%
West 1% (not on the ballot)
Hawkins 0% (not on the ballot)

WI:
Biden 51%
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 2%
West 1% (not on the ballot)
Hawkins 0% (not on the ballot)

Ipsos is a joke for polling West and Hawkins when they aren't even on the ballot.

[wbrocks67]

Also, the congressional polling in PA has been very consistent with the high quality polling of a 7-10 lead, versus a 2-5 lead.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/KellyannePolls/status/1318316121225834499

[Progressive Pessimist]

All this confirms is that Pennsylvania is still the truest battleground state of the big three that voted for Trump last time. Biden is still favored though.

[wbrocks67]

All this confirms is that Pennsylvania is still the truest battleground state of the big three that voted for Trump last time. Biden is still favored though.

Yeah, one poll doesn't prove that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

All this confirms is that Pennsylvania is still the truest battleground state of the big three that voted for Trump last time. Biden is still favored though.

Yeah, one poll doesn't prove that.

Most polls have shown Pennsylvania closer than Michigan and Wisconsin, albeit just barely. Don't get me wrong, all have polled well and relatively similar for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

All this confirms is that Pennsylvania is still the truest battleground state of the big three that voted for Trump last time. Biden is still favored though.

Yeah, one poll doesn't prove that.

Most polls have shown Pennsylvania closer than Michigan and Wisconsin, albeit just barely. Don't get me wrong, all have polled well and relatively similar for Biden.

Most recent high quality polls in PA had it in double digits (Monmouth, Q-pac)

[Progressive Pessimist]

All this confirms is that Pennsylvania is still the truest battleground state of the big three that voted for Trump last time. Biden is still favored though.

Yeah, one poll doesn't prove that.

Most polls have shown Pennsylvania closer than Michigan and Wisconsin, albeit just barely. Don't get me wrong, all have polled well and relatively similar for Biden.

Most recent high quality polls in PA had it in double digits (Monmouth, Q-pac)

True, but that has been true of Wisconsin and Michigan especially too. I don't think Biden will end up winning by that much in any of the three though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

[TheLaRocca]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

[jamestroll]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

[Buzz]

All this confirms is that Pennsylvania is still the truest battleground state of the big three that voted for Trump last time. Biden is still favored though.

Yeah, one poll doesn't prove that.

Most polls have shown Pennsylvania closer than Michigan and Wisconsin, albeit just barely. Don't get me wrong, all have polled well and relatively similar for Biden.

Most recent high quality polls in PA had it in double digits (Monmouth, Q-pac)

Don’t ever use the words Q-Pac and high quality in the same sentence again.  I will report the post.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

I have never understood this presumptuous attitude. X state will never vote more R or D then y state. I think it is a form of status quo bias. People are use to the map being a certain way and cannot process the coming reality that is a Democratic sunbelt and the resulting implications of that elsewhere.

[jamestroll]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

I have never understood this presumptuous attitude. X state will never vote more R or D then y state. I think it is a form of status quo bias. People are use to the map being a certain way and cannot process the coming reality that is a Democratic sunbelt and the resulting implications of that elsewhere.

I am just highly skeptical of predicting to far into the future because I feel like people just start to say random things just to make themselves sound smart. But the current trends do suggest that a Democratic victory in PA is boosted by Philly suburbs but they are not near as Democratic as Nova's suburbs making PA more difficult for Democrats than VA.

And I also do not believe that every election from President to City Council will follow exact PVI when polarization will obviously subdue and to be honest polarization is just a buzzword. During the 90s and 2000s were just had many long term out party incumbents who kept being re-elected due to being incumbents.

Expecting all elections to follow an exact formula has been disproven many times including this year!

Parties have really become too ideologically defined to expect a GOP Mayor of New York City or a Democratic Governor of Wyoming in the present days but we shouldn't expect that incumbent Democrats with positive approval ratings are doomed in 2022 just because Biden is in office.

[TheLaRocca]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

Of course. But just because the philly suburbs (and white educated suburbs in the northeast and midwest, with exceptions such as NOVA) are swinging heavily against Trump does not mean the GOP is finished in these areas post-Trump.

Sunbelt suburbs are a different story simply due to them being more liberal and diverse.

[jamestroll]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

Of course. But just because the philly suburbs (and white educated suburbs in the northeast and midwest, with exceptions such as NOVA) are swinging heavily against Trump does not mean the GOP is finished in these areas post-Trump.

Sunbelt suburbs are a different story simply due to them being more liberal and diverse.

Much of Nova's drift left is demographic changes. Lee Carter won based on demographics and certainly would have been destroyed if  Manassas area had the same demographics today as it did in the 1990s.

I do not expect St. Charles, MO or Hamilton, IN to becoming "democratic counties" but they will be keys to Democratic victories in those states.

[TheLaRocca]

A combination of lack of experience, single cycle fixation, Philly suburbs uber alles and failure to understand the underlying demographics regarding PA is on full display in this thread.


Trump is not going to win PA, unless something miraculous happens. However it is still very possible for Pennsylvania to vote considerably to the right of the nation. If 538 is right and Biden wins PA 53-47 while winning nationwide by 10, that makes PA R+4, compared to about R+2 last time, D+1 in 2012, D+4 in 2004.

There are two big factors that you people keep forgetting about the 2018 information.
First Casey and Wolf were both very popular incumbents, which is why they got elected by wider margins. In 2008 PA trended Republican in spite of Rendell getting 60% and Casey getting 59% just two years prior.

Second, the map was redrawn (just as note, I actually like the new map) and Republicans basically conceded what was their former territory in Delco, Perry is far too conservative for his district now and Democrats have basically 4 dense urban or inner suburban districts, two of which vote over 80% Democratic. Even with all of that, the GCB in PA was I think D+10, while the nation was D+9. It would be advantageous to compare the GCB in 2006 to that of 2004 and 2008, but keep in mind, Democrats are then and now much better at outperforming the ticket down ballot in PA.

I am so sick and tired of people on this forum down playing how competitive PA is because muh reasons and then getting shocked that someone like Pat Toomey got elected/reelected in the state. Underestimate it at your peril.

Oh yeah, I completely agree with you on PA dude. It's a Republican-leaning state. The "Philly suburbs" aren't as Democrat as people here think and never will vote like NOVA (Philly suburbs have loads of WWC voters....also Dem urban vote in Pittsburg and um Philly is decreasing). The rest of the state is very unfavorable for the Democrats. PA again in 2018 much of that was due to ugh Casey being a local legend (fathers name).

Another way to put it...Think of New York...now subtract NYC, subtract Suffolk/Nassau, AND finally subtract Westchester. Then make rural areas about 10% more conservative (at least). That's what PA is in a nutshell.

I think Biden wins the state simply due to the national margins. But it won't be by more than 3 or 4 percentage points.

It will DEF trend right.

Your points are correct on the Philly suburbs but still at the end if a Democrat wins PA it is because of the Philly suburbs largely.

i also think many people on this site have been too gun ho that all elections will follow an exact uniform swing PVI wise from presidential voting patterns. Which is clearly not going to happen.

Of course. But just because the philly suburbs (and white educated suburbs in the northeast and midwest, with exceptions such as NOVA) are swinging heavily against Trump does not mean the GOP is finished in these areas post-Trump.

Sunbelt suburbs are a different story simply due to them being more liberal and diverse.

Much of Nova's drift left is demographic changes. Lee Carter won based on demographics and certainly would have been destroyed if  Manassas area had the same demographics today as it did in the 1990s.

I do not expect St. Charles, MO or Hamilton, IN to becoming "democratic counties" but they will be keys to Democratic victories in those states.

Of course.

[jd7171]

I wanted to clarify something, in another topic I said Biden would win PA by at least 5+. I think people underestimate Biden's appeal to WWC voters in WPA. He's the only candidate that can win PA by this much. I can easily be wrong about Biden. But going forward after Trump I think the state will vote more to the right of the nation. The only thing that could hurt the GOP going forward is the East is growing and the West is decreasing in population.

[TheLaRocca]

I wanted to clarify something, in another topic I said Biden would win PA by at least 5+. I think people underestimate Biden's appeal to WWC voters in WPA. He's the only candidate that can win PA by this much. I can easily be wrong about Biden. But going forward after Trump I think the state will vote more to the right of the nation. The only thing that could hurt the GOP going forward is the East is growing and the West is decreasing in population.

Reply:If that's the case those swings occur in MI/WI/OH too.

But good post I agree!