WI-Trafalgar: Biden +1

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Fake news Trashfalgar sh**tpolling can't produce a Trump lead in this potential tipping-point state where something like 1/3 of the electorate has already voted. Sad!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

October 14-16
Changes with October 11-13 poll for the Restoration PAC (this one's not for a partisan sponsor)
Trends calculated pre-rounding

Biden 48% (n/c)
Trump 46% (+1)
Jorgensen 2% (-1)
Other 1% (-1 from "Someone else" at 2%)
Undecided 3% (n/c)

Okay, so even in this poll the "shrinking Biden lead" is noise. Good to know.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

When even TrafLOLgar has Trump losing Wisconsin, it's hard to see how he wins it. It won't be a blowout for Biden, and it would be very close in a less favorable environment for Democrats, but the takes about Wisconsin being a red state and a "heavy lift" for Democrats this year didn't age well.

Who says? The polling average right now Biden +7

Which is actually suggestive of a very slight R trend given his yuge nationwide numbers. I think Xing's point is that Biden is set to carry the Rust Belt trio due to the national environment rather than anything special to do with these particular states. I don't entirely agree with that, but that's my read on what he's saying.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So, Trafalgar has Biden ahead in WI and PA and behind in MI.

This map would be possible.

But I believe a map like this would cause unfaithful electors to give the House a third candidate.

Would ya give it a rest, Ljube?