WI-Trafalgar: Biden +1
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  WI-Trafalgar: Biden +1
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Author Topic: WI-Trafalgar: Biden +1  (Read 1762 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 19, 2020, 10:37:08 AM »

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Woody
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2020, 10:37:35 AM »

Toss up.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2020, 10:38:22 AM »

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redjohn
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2020, 10:38:52 AM »

Likely Biden. Anyone saying this is a tossup is completely delusional and only looking at polls that are close (most show a decent Biden lead).
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WD
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2020, 10:39:06 AM »

Nice! Biden+7
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Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2020, 10:39:09 AM »

Biden will lose Wisconsin.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2020, 10:42:50 AM »

They will just keep weighing the "social desirability index" at a stronger number for Trump as the election nears to make their "poll" tighten, predictably so.

I'm not sure how we can take a pollster seriously when they intentionally pad their numbers for a candidate.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2020, 10:43:22 AM »

Fake news Trashfalgar sh**tpolling can't produce a Trump lead in this potential tipping-point state where something like 1/3 of the electorate has already voted. Sad!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2020, 10:43:55 AM »

October 14-16
Changes with October 11-13 poll for the Restoration PAC (this one's not for a partisan sponsor)
Trends calculated pre-rounding

Biden 48% (n/c)
Trump 46% (+1)
Jorgensen 2% (-1)
Other 1% (-1 from "Someone else" at 2%)
Undecided 3% (n/c)
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2020, 10:44:42 AM »

October 14-16
Changes with October 11-13 poll for the Restoration PAC (this one's not for a partisan sponsor)
Trends calculated pre-rounding

Biden 48% (n/c)
Trump 46% (+1)
Jorgensen 2% (-1)
Other 1% (-1 from "Someone else" at 2%)
Undecided 3% (n/c)

Okay, so even in this poll the "shrinking Biden lead" is noise. Good to know.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2020, 10:46:26 AM »

When even TrafLOLgar has Trump losing Wisconsin, it's hard to see how he wins it. It won't be a blowout for Biden, and it would be very close in a less favorable environment for Democrats, but the takes about Wisconsin being a red state and a "heavy lift" for Democrats this year didn't age well.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2020, 10:48:17 AM »

When even TrafLOLgar has Trump losing Wisconsin, it's hard to see how he wins it. It won't be a blowout for Biden, and it would be very close in a less favorable environment for Democrats, but the takes about Wisconsin being a red state and a "heavy lift" for Democrats this year didn't age well.

Who says? The polling average right now Biden +7
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2020, 10:51:48 AM »

I'm feeling good
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2020, 10:52:07 AM »

When even TrafLOLgar has Trump losing Wisconsin, it's hard to see how he wins it. It won't be a blowout for Biden, and it would be very close in a less favorable environment for Democrats, but the takes about Wisconsin being a red state and a "heavy lift" for Democrats this year didn't age well.

Who says? The polling average right now Biden +7

Which is actually suggestive of a very slight R trend given his yuge nationwide numbers. I think Xing's point is that Biden is set to carry the Rust Belt trio due to the national environment rather than anything special to do with these particular states. I don't entirely agree with that, but that's my read on what he's saying.
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2020, 10:53:15 AM »

When even TrafLOLgar has Trump losing Wisconsin, it's hard to see how he wins it. It won't be a blowout for Biden, and it would be very close in a less favorable environment for Democrats, but the takes about Wisconsin being a red state and a "heavy lift" for Democrats this year didn't age well.

Who says? The polling average right now Biden +7

I meant a blowout like Obama in 2008 or Baldwin's 2018 win. I'm guessing a mid-single digit win for Biden here, which wouldn't suggest a strong trend either way and is about what you would expect for Wisconsin in a Biden +8 election.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2020, 10:54:21 AM »

Fake news Trashfalgar sh**tpolling can't produce a Trump lead in this potential tipping-point state where something like 1/3 of the electorate has already voted. Sad!
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Person Man
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2020, 10:56:27 AM »

I mean Gore and Kerry almost lost here...maybe Biden does between what they did and what Obama did in 2012.
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Ljube
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2020, 10:56:38 AM »

So, Trafalgar has Biden ahead in WI and PA and behind in MI.

This map would be possible.




But I believe a map like this would cause unfaithful electors to give the House a third candidate.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2020, 10:57:21 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2020, 11:04:52 AM by KaiserDave »

Please stop with nonsense maps
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2020, 10:58:34 AM »

So, Trafalgar has Biden ahead in WI and PA and behind in MI.

This map would be possible.




But I believe a map like this would cause unfaithful electors to give the House a third candidate.


-NV going Republican (to the right of PA/WI, no less!)
-"Possible"

Does not compute.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2020, 11:01:24 AM »

It'd be hilarious if Trafalgar was totally right across the board, but forgot to poll Texas since August, Biden wins there, and it ends up being all for nothing.
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Buzz
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2020, 11:08:28 AM »

I think Biden will probably take Wisconsin by around 3 points.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2020, 11:09:52 AM »

1051 likely voters
MoE: 2.94%
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2020, 11:10:54 AM »

So, Trafalgar has Biden ahead in WI and PA and behind in MI.

This map would be possible.




But I believe a map like this would cause unfaithful electors to give the House a third candidate.


Would ya give it a rest, Ljube?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2020, 11:19:51 AM »

So, Trafalgar has Biden ahead in WI and PA and behind in MI.

This map would be possible.




But I believe a map like this would cause unfaithful electors to give the House a third candidate.


.Mitchell just polled MI and Biden is ahead 51-41
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