CBS/YouGov: Biden +3 in AZ, +5 in WI

[VAR]

AZ
Oct 13-16, 1064 RV, MoE: 4.1%
Changes with Sept 9-11 poll

Biden 50% (+3)
Trump 47% (+3)

SEN: Kelly 52-41

WI
Oct 13-16, 1124 RV, MoE: 3.5%
Changes with Sept 2-4 poll

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 46% (+2)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-wisconsin-arizona-opinion-poll-2020-10-17/

[BaldEagle1991]

I hate how it's tightening in Arizona.

[Devils30]

It's not, AZ is just a state that these online pollsters underestimate Dems.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I hate how it's tightening in Arizona.

It’s not....?

[SaneDemocrat]

AZ
Biden 50% (+3)
Trump 47% (+3)

WI
Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 46% (+2)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-wisconsin-arizona-opinion-poll-2020-10-17/

Meh for Biden.I hope Ny times/Fox polls are right.

289-249 (AZ+WI+PA+MI) bothers me

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is gone for Rs

[FourEyedRick]

It would not surprise me if these are the final margins in those states.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 13-16

Among likely voters

AZ
1074 likely voters
MoE: 4.1% for likely voters
Changes with September 9-11

Biden 49% (+2)
Trump 45% (+1)
Someone else/third party 3% (n/c)
Not sure 3% (-3)

WI
1112 likely voters
MoE: 3.5% for likely voters
Changes with September 2-4

Biden 50% (n/c)
Trump 45% (+1)
Someone else/third party 3% (+1)
Not sure 2% (-2)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I hate how it's tightening in Arizona.

It’s not....?

It's actually widening among likely voters

[KaiserDave]

The Wisconsin margin is a bit worrying
But overall this is a good poll for Biden, as well as AZ polls usually underestimating Dems

[Person Man]

I hate how it's tightening in Arizona.

It’s not....?

It's actually widening among likely voters

/s?

[Bootes Void]

This seems really meh. The national polls and state polls still seem off. You have had some polls where Biden leads national polls by double digits but state polls by alot closer

[Devils30]

The initial AZ > WI belief I believe will be validated in final results. Won't be surprised if Biden won AZ by 7 but WI by only 4-5.

[Horus]

Not great, but Wisconsin has 0% undecideds. Wouldn't be surprised if 51-46/47 is the final margin there.

[kireev]

Biden's lead in early vote is just crazy.



There is no party registration in WI, but but in AZ Democrats are 46% of the early voters and Republicans are 32% per  https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

I would expect Biden to lead in AZ by 20% now, not by 42%.

[Crumpets]

Biden's lead in early vote is just crazy.



There is no party registration in WI, but but in AZ Democrats are 46% of the early voters and Republicans are 32% per  https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

I would expect Biden to lead in AZ by 20% now, not by 42%.

Just doing some quick math here, according to the US Elections Project, 853,156 people have voted so far in Wisconsin. If the current breakdown is 75-24, Biden would have approximately 640,000 votes and Trump would have 200,000 votes already in the bank. In turn, that means Biden is currently at around 46% of Clinton's final vote total in 2016, while Trump is at 15% of his 2016 vote total.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I hate how it's tightening in Arizona.

Biden's at 50 so even if the poll is right he's fine.

[Buzz]

Close enough for me to stay engaged =)

[DaleCooper]

Lol, I knew people would be anxious over these polls. It's crazy how Trump's hopes revolve solely around enormous, systemic polling error.

[ProgressiveModerate]

When people freak out over a Biden + 5 poll in WI where he is above 50%, you know Trump is in trouble.

[Person Man]

It all maps to a 8-10 NPV deal.

[TheLaRocca]

I have no clue why people are “angry” about Wisconsin. Biden won’t win it by more then 5 lol.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

These polls aren't great but they're not that bad. Biden by mid-single digits and at or over 50% in two potential tipping-point states, in one of which pollsters routinely underestimate Democratic candidates, would be downright fantastic given any other set of nationwide numbers.

[Asta]

Biden's lead in early vote is just crazy.



There is no party registration in WI, but but in AZ Democrats are 46% of the early voters and Republicans are 32% per  https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

I would expect Biden to lead in AZ by 20% now, not by 42%.

For this poll to be reconciled with early voting numbers, Independents have to be extremely skewed toward Biden; like literally 80-90% territory. Also, Republicans that are willing to vote for Biden may be returning mail at a disproportionately high rate.

All of that is possible but 42% lead seems just ridiculously high.

[wbrocks67]

This seems really meh. The national polls and state polls still seem off. You have had some polls where Biden leads national polls by double digits but state polls by alot closer

Many of the higher quality polls have shown leads more in line with double digits. It's been the B/C/D pollsters that more of the time have lower leads. YouGov is in the middle.

Though Arizona +3/4 is literally in line with the polling average, and in AZ the margin like CA, NV, TX, etc is likely undercounting Dems.

Wisconsin has had some pollsters 8-10 and some 5-ish, so it's probably closer to the middle (6-8)