MO-Remington: Trump +6

[VAR]

Trump 51%
Biden 45% (-1)
Jorgensen 1% (new)
Hawkins 1% (new)

https://moscout.com/daily-updates-1/2020/10/17/moscout-daily-update-koenigs-cavalry-poll-shows-parson-lead-cleaner-in-flames-hallway-sees-dem-gains-in-house-and-more

[Buzz]

Yikes

[VAR]

Inb4 “(R)emington”

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ouch Ouch Ouch.
We saw an Indiana poll not too long ago which was Trump+7 or so. Since MO and IN tend to vote very closely, perhaps this is a sign Trump's position in the MW will detoriate further.

[Ljube]

Bad poll for Trump.

[republican1993]

Before anyone freaks out! Remington had the same poll out at the same time out in 2016 - 47% Trump - 42% Trump + 5 (10/9-10/11 2016)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Remington is a pretty good pollster so this is concerning for Trump

[psychprofessor]

Before anyone freaks out! Remington had the same poll out at the same time out in 2016 - 47% Trump - 42% Trump + 5 (10/9-10/11 2016)

Yes, right at the height of Access Hollywood. Would people stop with these comparisons to "at the same time in 2016" they just aren't an apples to apples comparison.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Before anyone freaks out! Remington had the same poll out at the same time out in 2016 - 47% Trump - 42% Trump + 5 (10/9-10/11 2016)

No, regardless of the spin, this is still a bad poll for Trump.  Remington had him up by twelve in the last edition of its poll before the election (10/31-11/1, 51-39)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 14-15
1010 likely voters
Changes with September 30-October 1

Undecided 2% (-1)

[forza nocta]

Yea Biden at 45% here is not good for Trump. Most of the mid-October thru ED polls of MO had Hillary at low 40s or under 40%. Biden has been polling at 44-46% here mostly

[ProgressiveModerate]

If MO is even a smidge closer than it was in 2016, Trump is in real trouble. We keep getting polls that show a single digit race, and I have a hard time seeing how polls would be off by 10% +, though they could definately be off.

[Sir Mohamed]

Welp, Biden could actually get close to 45% in MO. The St. Louis suburbs will swing D by a fair amount, though I don't see the state as a battleground. Neither does Biden need it, though these solid R states trending D will give Biden another boost for the NPV.

That said, Likely R.

[republican1993]

Before anyone freaks out! Remington had the same poll out at the same time out in 2016 - 47% Trump - 42% Trump + 5 (10/9-10/11 2016)

No, regardless of the spin, this is still a bad poll for Trump.  Remington had him up by twelve in the last edition of its poll before the election (10/31-11/1, 51-39)

yup agreed he should end up winning by around ten in my opinion indiana and missouri will likely vote very similar

[Hope For A New Era]

Still doubting, but the consistency of polls is impressive.

[Lief 🗽]

Missouri will have about the same result as the 2018 senate race IMO.

[wbrocks67]

Before anyone freaks out! Remington had the same poll out at the same time out in 2016 - 47% Trump - 42% Trump + 5 (10/9-10/11 2016)

That's 11% undecided versus 4% now

[Rand]

Must be an awful lot of shy Trump voters in Missouri.

[Buzz]

Missouri polling has been pretty bad the last two cycles.  Will be interesting to see if 2020 is improved.

[Badger]

Before anyone freaks out! Remington had the same poll out at the same time out in 2016 - 47% Trump - 42% Trump + 5 (10/9-10/11 2016)

Because 2016 is forever.

[woodley park]

The trend almost across the board is that Joe Biden is improving in areas where the Democrats had lost ground. In virtually every poll, Biden does better against Trump than Hillary did in 2016; whether it’s statewide in places like Missouri or Republican-leaning districts in toss-up states, Biden is doing better. The sole exception appears to be with Hispanics in Miami-Dade. But due to his performance everywhere else, there’s no question that Biden will win the national popular vote, and likely by a significant margin. If he can keep Trump from running away with the vote in rural areas in the swing states, then Biden should prevail statewide, and thus win with a comfortable margin in the Electoral College.

[Astatine]

MO-02 would probably flip with that statewide margin.

[Gass3268]

Welp, Biden could actually get close to 45% in MO. The St. Louis suburbs will swing D by a fair amount, though I don't see the state as a battleground. Neither does Biden need it, though these solid R states trending D will give Biden another boost for the NPV.

That said, Likely R.

I would also look at Clay and Platte counties in the Kansas City Metro Area.

[NOVA Green]

Welp, Biden could actually get close to 45% in MO. The St. Louis suburbs will swing D by a fair amount, though I don't see the state as a battleground. Neither does Biden need it, though these solid R states trending D will give Biden another boost for the NPV.

That said, Likely R.

I would also look at Clay and Platte counties in the Kansas City Metro Area.

Springfield MO likely flips as well in 2020 with these margins, meaning Greene County turns into a much smaller margin of victory deep in the heart of the Republican strongholds of SW MO.

See below for some recent election numbers out of Springfield.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7580377#msg7580377

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Galloway is gonna lose, but Blunts polls look weak, she could be talked into running for Senate in 2022, even in a Biden midterm.  Parson is too popular