Minutes to Midnight: Rage and Partisanship in America

[Edgeofnight]

In-universe, he was a deputy chair of the DNC, and is now running for Congress in IN-02.

So he's more of a midwestern politician and not fully on the national stage.

Sorta - he's caught some national attention and is a bit of a buzz in election nerd circles. He's somewhere between Ojeda in 2018 and Kander in 2016.

[Edgeofnight]

November 2019


Downballot Democrats blow off 2020 candidates in the final days of the race

   As the 2019 Gubernatorial elections near their end, the three Democrats vying to control Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi are all blowing off the 2020 Primary field. As VP Biden holds a rally in Jacksonville to “fire up local Democrats,” Jim Hood, the Democratic nominee for Governor, is miles away in Tulepa at his own event. The same is true of Hood’s fellow candidates in Louisiana and Kentucky. As Cory Booker attends an event for Kentucky Senate candidate Charles Booker, Andy Beshear crisscrosses the other side of the state, trying to pretend that the 2020 elections don’t exist. The strategy comes in stark contrast to their Republican opponents, who are trying to hold themselves to as close to President Trump as possible.  

2019 Election Results - Democrats hold onto Louisiana, poised to grab Kentucky. Mississippi remains “too early to call.”

Kentucky Gubernatorial Election - 98% Reporting *DEMOCRATIC GAIN*
Andy Beshear  - 49.8%
Matt Bevin* - 47.6%
Others - 2.6%

Louisiana Gubernatorial Election - 99% Reporting *DEMOCRATIC HOLD
John Bel Edwards* 52.2%
Ralph Abram - 47.8%

Mississippi Gubernatorial Election - 99% Reporting  *TOO EARLY TO CALL*
Jim Hood - 49.6%
Tate Reeves - 48.4%
Others - 2.0%

Recanvass in Kentucky adds to Beshear’s lead, but Bevin refuses to concede

   After a recanvass targeting nearly a dozen voting precincts, Andy Beshear has expanded his lead by 76 votes, with Beshear taking the chance to definitively claim victory. However, his opponent, Governor Matt Bevin, is insisting that he is still the rightful winner of the race, and is pushing a baseless claim of election fraud.

Booker ends campaign for White House, citing fundraising difficulties

   New Jersey Senator Cory Booker has become the latest Democratic candidate to end their bid for the White House, citing fundraising challenges. In ending his campaign, Booker launched his bid for re-election to the U.S. Senate, but declined to endorse one of his fellow candidates for President.

Arizona Senate passes controversial “election integrity law” as lead supporters cite “irregularities” in Kentucky


   Citing instances of “electoral irregularities” in the Kentucky Gubernatorial election, the Arizona Senate passed a new “election integrity and reform law.” The law, like the one passed in Texas, would allocate electoral college votes based on the winners in each congressional district, and gut state support to local election offices. The state senate dropped the provision requiring statewide candidates to win an outright majority, at the urging of Governor Ducey.  The bill now goes to Governor Ducey to sign, and he is expected to do so.

John Kasich’s “Two America’s” tour to set the stage for independent White House Bid

   Former Ohio Governor John Kasich plans to formally launch his independent bid for President in the coming weeks, according to Tom Loeffler, former Congressman and McCain campaign aide. Loeffler, who has been hired as a “senior advisor” to Kasich, says that the Governor’s 24 state tour will culminate in a campaign announcement in mid-January.

DSCC shifts support in Texas in the wake of O’Rourke’s impeachment vote.


   The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, the campaign arm for Senate Democrats, has changed its preferred candidate in Texas, shifting support from Michael Cooper, a pastor endorsed by Senator O’Rourke (D-TX), to State Senator Royce West. The move comes after O’Rourke voted against one of the articles of impeachment in the Trial of President Trump, which the Cooper campaign claims is the cause of the sudden shift. The DSCC did not explicitly respond to Cooper’s charge, but did boast that its slate of endorsements this cycle “represents the most diverse pool of candidates in history,” and argued that Royce “would represent a community that is massively underrepresented in the US Senate.”

House Committee moves forward on Whistleblower investigation, drawing ire from all.


   The House select committee investigation a whistleblower accusation has begun soliciting closed-door testimony from those involved in the complaint, according to those familiar with Chair Jamie Raskin. However, the move has drawn some anger from Republicans and even some skepticism from Democrats. Republicans have touted their usually talking points about a Democratic witch hunt, while many Democrats feel that the failed impeachment has burned too much political capital. Regardless, the Committee is expected to move slowly in its investigation.

Legislature will follow “the will of the people” in Mississippi election says, State House Speaker.


   After several extensive meetings with both major party candidates, State House Speaker Phillip Gunn has stated that the legislature would “follow the will of the people” and “respect the Democratic process,” with Gunn stating that he expects the legislature to confirm Jim Hood’s victory in the coming weeks.
   Those familiar with the decision say that the move comes as part of a behind the scenes agreement between Gunn, Reeves, and Hood, where-in Hood will not challenge the Mississippi law requiring a candidate to win both an outright popular vote majority as well as a majority of State House districts. Hood won a narrow popular vote plurality, but did not win a majority of State House districts, leaving the election results unclear. With this announcement, Lt. Governor Tate Reeves, Hood’s Republican opponent, has conceded the election to Hood, and he is expected to take office on January 14th, 2020.

Senate confirms Hawley and Messer’s nominations, despite Democratic ire.


   Two of Trump’s cabinet vacancies will soon be filled, as the Senate has confirmed Josh Hawley and Luke Messer to be Attorney General and Secretary of Education respectively. Messer’s nomination passed with a comfortable 55-45 vote, with Senators Manchin (D-WV), Bredesen (D-TN), Donnelly (D-IN), McCaskill (D-MO), Nelson (D-FL), Sinema (D-AZ),  and Casey (D-PA), crossing party lines to confirm Trump’s nominee. Hawley’s nomination met more resistance, passing with a 51-50 vote, with only Manchin and Bredesen crossing the isle to support Hawley’s nomination. This left Vice President Pence to break the tie, confirming Hawley’s nomination.

Alaska becomes latest state to cancel GOP primary.

   Joining South Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Kansas, and Hawaii, Alaska has canceled its upcoming Republican Presidential primary, with the state party pledging “unconditional support” to Trump’s re-election. The move comes as former Senator Jeff Flake consolidates the “Never Trump '' portions of the party ahead of the Iowa Caucuses in early February. Trump’s allies have pushed to cancel primaries to protect the President. The move puts the President ahead of his challengers in the delegate count, despite not a single vote being cast.  

Bevin remains defiant, even in defeat.

   There is no doubt that Andy Beshear will be sworn in as Governor in the coming weeks. Even Matt Bevin admits that. What Matt Bevin doesn’t admit, however, is that he actually lost the election. Bevin continues to swear that he was denied his rightful victory. In an interview with Tucker Carlson, the outgoing Governor said “I still think I won. I’ll be leaving office on December 10th, but I don’t think I should be… Look, I’m committed to the peaceful transition of power. I wish the next administration the best of luck, but I think that they pulled some stunts in this recent race, and I hope our new Attorney General takes a good hard look at those stunts.”
 
Governor Cuomo censured by the State Democratic Party.

   As the legislature begins to move towards impeachment, the New York State Democratic Party has taken action against its former leader, Governor Andrew Cuomo, passing a resolution urging the Governor to resign and censuring him. Cuomo, who ended his presidential campaign a few weeks ago to “avoid further distractions,” has remained defiant in opposing calls for his resignation, even the ones that have come from his own Lt. Governor. He is currently being investigated by the New York District Attorney, the Southern District of New York, and the State Attorney General’s office.


No Infobox because as I was making it someone edited the wikipedia sandbox and edit conflicted me. There will be one for the 2019 gubernatorial election, and for some of the Primaries.

[Edgeofnight]

The 2019 United States gubernatorial elections were held on November 5, 2019, in Kentucky and Mississippi, and November 16, 2019, in Louisiana. These elections formed part of the 2019 United States elections. The last regular gubernatorial elections for all three states were in 2015. The Democrats had to defend an incumbent in Louisiana, while the Republicans had to defend an incumbent in Kentucky plus an open seat in Mississippi. Though all three seats up were in typically Republican states, the election cycle became unexpectedly competitive: with the races in all three states becoming highly contested races.

Democrats were able to hold their seat in Louisiana and flip the governor's seat in Kentucky and Mississippi, winning all three states. As a result, the Democrats gained a net of two seats, bringing the total number of Democratic governors to 29, while Republicans were reduced to 21 governors, continuing a streak of governor's seat gains by Democrats under Republican President Donald Trump that began in 2017.

This is the first time since 2003 in which a party made a net gain of seats in this cycle of governorships, and the first time since 1991 that Kentucky and Louisiana elected candidates of the same party. Democrats also won the total popular vote for gubernatorial elections for the third year in a row, and for the first time since 1991 in this cycle of governorships, winning by a margin of roughly 3 points. Additionally, these are the first gubernatorial elections since 2005 in which all of the margins of victory were under ten points.

[Edgeofnight]

Trump nominates Tom Barrack for Secretary of the Treasury - December 1, 2019.

Bullock ends Presidential campaign, endorsing Sherrod Brown - December 2, 2019.

Perry’s confirmation hearing: Democrats hit Energy Secretary on the Threat of Climate Change - December 4, 2019.

Democratic Debate - Warren goes for the throat against Bloomberg, as Sanders punches at Biden and Brown - December 5, 2019.

House Select Committee calls for Perry to testify in Whistle Blower Probe - December 9, 2019.

Joe Crowley launches Mayoral Campaign. - December 10, 2019

   Former Congressman Joe Crowley, who was unseated from his Congressional seat by Alexandria Ocasio Cortez in 2018, is launching a comeback bid for Mayor in the 2021 race. Crowley, who was once a top ranking House Democrat, filed paperwork this morning, indicating his intentions to run for the City’s top office. Crowley brings a major fundraising network to the race, and has already secured the endorsement of Rep Hakeem Jeffries, a former ally of his on Capitol Hill. Crowley is currently facing off with City Council Speaker Corey Johnson, Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr., and City Councilor Carlos Menchaca among many others in a field that is likely to get even more crowded as the race gets closer.

Rep. Amash endorses Kasich for President. - December 11, 2019

Report: Governor Cuomo to resign. - December 13, 2019.

   Criminal investigations, impeachment inquiry, and even his own cabinet calling for his resignation. With the walls closing in on all sides, Cuomo’s resignation was inevitable at this point. The embattled Governor plans to formally step down at the end of this year, handing the State over to Lt. Governor Kathy Hochul. Cuomo made a public announcement of his decision, but did not take questions from the press.

Perry’s closed door testimony has Republicans anxious. - December 15, 2019.

Trump endorses inter-party challenger to sitting Republican Senator. - December 18, 2019.

   In an eye-raising move, President Trump plans to endorse Beau McCroy, a former state legislator, in his bid to unseat Republican Senator Ben Sasse, according to sources close with the McCroy Campaign. McCroy, a staunch Trump supporter, has criticized Sasse for his “half and half” approach to the President, and has accused him of secretly conspiring with Democratic senators to remove Trump from office. Sasse, meanwhile, has emphasized his conservative policy positions and support for Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Current polling shows that McCroy and Sasse are nearly tied, with a substantial number of undecided voters.   

Barrack confirmation hearing - Senators probe his connection to foreign governments and Paul Manafort. - December 18, 2019.

Trump withdraws Perry’s nomination for DHS as Energy Secretary “looks to return to private life” - December 20, 2019.

Ducey signs controversial election security law - December 21, 2019.

Trump tweets "Merry Christmas to all the haters and losers," prompting praise from Fox News - December 24, 2019.

Weld enters Libertarian race for President, but the party doesn't want him.
- December 27, 2019.

With Stein out, the Green Party is flying blind. - December 28, 2019.

Democrats trade barbs in Iowa, hoping to break out of the pack. - December 30, 2019.

Brown ends 2019 with a comfortable lead in Iowa. - December 31, 2019.

Polling:

2020 Republican Preisdential Primary, Nationwide Polling:
Pres. Donald Trump - 79%
Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake - 12%
Others/Undecided - 9%

2020 Republican Presidenital Primary, Iowa Polling
Pres. Donald Trump - 83%
Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake - 7%
Others - 10%

2020 Republican Presidential Primary, New Hampshire
Pres. Donald Trump - 80%
Sen. Jeff Flake - 13%
OThers - 7%

Nationwide Democrats:
Sen. Bernie Sanders - 20%
Sen. Elizabeth Warren - 14%
Fmr. May. Michael Bloomberg - 14%
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden - 13%
Sen. Sherrod Brown - 10%
Mr. Tom Steyer - 7%
Fmr. A.G. Eric Holder - 6%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar - 3%
Mr. Andrew Yang - 2%
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard - 2%
Sen. Michael Bennet - 1%
Fmr. Rep. Joe Sestak - 0%
Ms. Marianne Williamson - 0%
Others/Undecided - 8%

2020 Democratic Presidential Primary, Iowa:
Sen. Sherrod Brown - 22%
Sen. Bernie Sanders - 16%
Sen. Elizabeth Warren - 14%
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden - 11%
Fmr. May. Michael Bloomberg - 9%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar - 7%
Mr. Tom Steyer - 4%
Fmr. A.G. Eric Holder - 3%
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard - 2%
Mr. Andrew Yang - 1%
Sen. Michael Bennet - 1%
Fmr. Rep. Joe Sestak - 0%
Ms. Marianne Williamson - 0%
Others/Undecided - 10%

2020 Democratic Party Presidential Primary, New Hampshire
Sen. Bernie Sanders - 18%
Sen. Elizabeth Warren - 15%
Sen. Sherrod Brown - 15%
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden - 12%
Fmr. May. Michael Bloomberg - 7%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar - 7%
Fmr. A.G. Eric Holder - 5%
Mr. Tom Steyer - 4%
Mr. Andrew Yang - 2%
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard - 2%
Sen. Michael Bennet - 1%
Fmr. Rep. Joe Sestak - 0%
Ms. Marianne Williamson - 0%
Others/Undecided - 12%

2020 Democratic Party Presidential Primary, Nevada:
Sen. Bernie Sanders - 19%
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden - 13%
Sen. Elizabeth Warren - 12%
Sen. Sherrod Brown - 11%
Fmr. May. Michael Bloomberg - 8%
Mr. Tom Steyer - 7%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar - 4%
Fmr. A.G. Eric Holder - 6%
Mr. Andrew Yang - 3%
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard - 1%
Sen. Michael Bennet - 1%
Fmr. Rep. Joe Sestak - 0%
Ms. Marianne Williamson - 0%
Others/Undecided - 13%

2020 Democratic Party Presidential Primary, South Carolina
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden - 24%
Fmr. A.G. Eric Holder - 14%
Mr. Tom Steyer - 14%
Sen. Bernie Sanders - 12%
Sen. Elizabeth Warren - 7%
Sen. Sherrod Brown - 6%
Fmr. May. Michael Bloomberg - 5%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar - 3%
Mr. Andrew Yang - 2%
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard - 1%
Sen. Michael Bennet - 1%
Fmr. Rep. Joe Sestak - 0%
Ms. Marianne Williamson - 0%
Others/Undecided - 11%


Another radical change in formatting? Yes.

[Edgeofnight]

2020 Senate Elections: Ratings as of January 1




Alabama:
Incumbent Democrat Doug Jones is seeking re-election to a full term in office. Jones has an uphill road to re-election in a traditionally Republican State, but is hoping to make a miracle happen twice. On the Republican side of the race, former Senator Jeff Sessions, who resigned to become Attorney General, is looking to reclaim his seat in the Senate, and is facing off with Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, Congressman Bradley Bryne, State Rep ARnold Mooney, and former state judge Roy Moore, the controversial nominee for this seat in 2017. Current Rating: Tossup

Alaska:
Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is seeking a second term in office. He currently faces no inter-party challengers, and unlike Alaska’s other senator, he has the full support of the state GOP. Looking to challenge him are surgeon Al Gross (I), newspaper executive Edgar Blatchford (D), and former congressional candidate Chris Cummings (I). Democrats were hoping to recruit a superstar candidate, but fell short in that regard. Current Rating: Likely R.

Arizona:
Incumbent Republican Martha McSally is seeking to fill the remainder of the late John McCain’s term, after having been appointed at the end of 2018. Before she can defend her seat in November, she must clear a somewhat-credible primary challenge from skincare executive Daniel McCarthy. Democrats have a contested primary between former CBP Chief of Staff Marco Lopez and former Astronaut Mark Kelly. McSally is generally considered to be a weak candidate, and Democrats are optimistic about their odds. Current Rating: Lean D (Flip)

Arkansas:
Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton is seeking re-election to a second term. No Democrat is in the race, as the only candidate that filed withdrew after the filing deadline. As a result, Cotton faces no serious opposition for re-election. Current Rating: Safe R

Colorado:
Incumbent Republican Cory Gardner is seeking a second term in office. He faces a steep climb, with low approval ratings in a state that backed Hilary Clinton in 2016. Gardner was expected to face a primary challenger, but ultimately none emerged. Running to face him are former Governor John Hickenlooper and former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Hickenlooper was successfully able to box out nearly all other challengers for the seat, and he has the firm backing of the state and national Democratic Party. Current Rating: Lean D (Flip)

Delaware:
Incumbent Democrat Chris Coons is seeking re-election to a second full term in office. He faces nominal opposition from both Democrats and Republicans, and is likely to cruise to re-election. Current Rating: Safe D

Georgia:
Incumbent David Perdue is seeking re-election to a second term in office. No republicans have emerged to challenge him. Democrats are locked in a tight three way race between Jon Ossoff, and activist and former candidate, Teresa Tomlinson, the former mayor of Columbus, and Sarah Riggs Amico, the party’s nominee for Lt. Governor in 2018. Abrams narrow victory over Brian Kemp in the 2018 Gubernatorial election has Democrats optimistic about their chances, but the polling numbers give Perdue a slight edge against his Democratic challengers. Current Rating: Lean R.

Idaho:
Incumbent Jim Risch is seeking a third term in office. Although his challenger, Democrat Paulette Jordan, is seen as a rising star in the party, her odds of victory are beyond slim. Current Rating: Safe R

Illinois:
Incumbent Democrat Dick Durbin is seeking a fifth term in office. No Democrats are challenging him, despite some prior attempts at a primary. Republicans have a scattering of options for candidates, but none seem particularly serious at the moment. Independent Willie Wilson is also running, and has been endorsed by the Chicago Police Union. Current Rating: Safe D.

Iowa:
Incumbent Republican Joni Ernst is seeking a second term in office. Her most likely Democratic challenger is Rita Hart, the State’s Lt. Governor, who has consolidated support from the state and national parties. Despite the state’s recent shift to the Republican Party, Hart has polled very competitively and currently has an aggregate lead over the incumbent. Rating: Toss Up

Kansas:
Incumbent Pat Roberts is retiring after four terms. The Republican primary is crowded, headed up by former state Secretary Kris Kobach,Congressman Roger Marshall, and businessman Bob Hamilton. Democrats are torn between Barry Grissom, a former U.S. Attorney, and Nancy Boyda, a former U.S. Congresswoman. Independent Greg Orman is also in the race, launching what he’s called his “last bid for office.” The three way nature of the race makes it complicated, and Kobach is seen as a liability for the Republican Party, making this traditionally republican state have a competitive race. Current Rating: Toss up

Kentucky:
Incumbent Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is seeking re-election to a seventh term. His likely opponent, State Rep Charles Booker, has a near 0 chance of victory. Current Rating: Safe R

Louisiana:
Incumbent Republican Bill Cassidy is seeking a second term in Office. Louisiana’s jungle primary system means that all of his challengers, as well as the Senator himself, will face each other on one ballot. Polling indicates that a runoff election between Cassidy and democratic Mayor Adrian Perkins could be close, but polling also shows Cassidy in a good position to win outright in the first round. Current rating: Likely R.

Maine:
Incumbent Senator Susan Collins is seeking a fifth term in office, despite speculation that she would retire. A perennial target for the Democrats, Collins is likely to face either former State House Speaker Hannah Pingree or activist Betsy Sweet, and polling indicates that either race is likely to be competitive. As a state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, Collins path to reelection is considered far narrower than her previous campaigns, and this is likely to be one of the most competitive and expensive races of the cycle. Current Rating: Toss up.

Massachusetts
Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey is, somewhat unexpectedly, seeking a second full term in office. Challenging him for the Democratic nomination is “heir apparent” Joe Kennedy III, Congressman and member of the Kennedy family. Polls indicate the race between the two is competitive, but Markey has remained steadfast in his commitment to seeking re-election. Republicans are lacking any serious candidates at this time. Current Rating: Safe D

Michigan
Incumbent Democrat Gary Peters is seeking re-election to a second term, with no intra-party opposition. Republicans have a split primary, with their preferred candidate, John James, having switched over to a House race at the last minute. The remaining candidates are Tom Leonard, a former State House Speaker, and Jim Hines, a physician. Hines is widely viewed as the more conservative of the two, but neither poll particularly well against Peters. Current Rating: Likely D.

Minnesota:
Incumbent Democrat Tina Smith is seeking her first full term in office. She faces nominal opposition in the Democratic primary, and is widely expected to win re-nomination easily. Republicans have put forward Jim Hagerdorn, a former congressional candidate, and Trump’s personal pick for the seat. Like Smith, Hagedorn faces weak opposition. Richard Painter, a former White House Lawyer under Bush, is running as a Serve America Movement candidate, with the endorsement of John Kasich. Still, Smith remains the overwhelming favorite to win re-election, though the race might get competitive in coming weeks/months. Current Rating: Likely D.

Mississippi:
Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is seeking re-election to her first full term in office. She faces a stiff primary from conservative favorite Chris McDaniel. Meanwhile, Democrat Mike Espy is hoping for a win in the re-match. Should Hyde-Smith lose, the race is likely to be competitive. Current Rating: Likely R.

Montana:
Incumbent Republican Steve Daines is seeking a second term in office. He faces weak opposition in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, Democrats are hoping that Steve Bullock, recently off the presidential campaign trail, will jump in to create a competitive race. Without Bullock, the primary is split between Helena Mayor Wilmot Collins and professor Jack Ballard, with Collins being the party’s favorite in the race. However, he polls poorly against Daines in a general election match up. Current Rating: Likely R.

Nebraska:
Incumbent Republican Ben Sasse is seeking a second term in office. He has found himself in President Trump’s crosshair, with the President apparently frustrated by Sasse’s “lack of loyalty.” Accordingly, Trump has endorsed Republican challenger Beau McCroy, a staunch conservative who’s combative attitude has made him a national, and somewhat controversial figure. Democrats haven’t found a candidate to rally around, with a field populated by low-key candidates. Current Rating: Safe R.

New Hampshire:
Incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is seeking a third term in office. New Hampshire is a constant target for both parties, though Shaheen seems to have a pretty commanding lead right now. Republicans are split between attorney Corky Messner and General Don Bolduc, both are considered low key challengers and both have struggled to raise money, making the differences between them seem relatively small in terms of their viability. Current Rating: Likely D.

New Jersey:
Incumbent Democrat Cory Booker is seeking a second full term in office. There are no other serious candidates from either party. Current Rating: Safe D.

New Mexico:
Incumbent Democrat Tom Udall is retiring after two terms. Democrat Ben Ray Lujan is the favorite to replace him, facing no serious opposition from other Democrats. Republicans are rallying around Mark Rochetti, former KRQE meteorologist. Rochetti is running a low profile campaign with little support from national republicans. Current Rating: Likely D

North Carolina:
Incumbent Republican Thom Tillis is seeking a second term in office. Tillis is one of many Republicans who has tried to have his cake and eat it too when it comes to President Trump, tepidly supporting most of his policies. The result is that both centrist and conservative Republicans are unhappy with the Senator, who now faces a strong primary challenge from businessman Garland Tucker. Democrats have a competitive primary as well, with former state Senator Cal Cunningham facing a challenge from the left from current state senator Erica Smith. Cunningham leads Tillis and Tucker by 5 and 8 points respectively, while Smith trails Tillis and leads Tucker by only 2 points. Regardless of how the primaries go, this race is likely to be highly competitive. Current Rating: Tossup

Oklahoma
Four-term incumbent Jim Inhofe is retiring, creating an open seat in the deep red state. Republicans are clamoring for the nomination. Leading the pack right now is former EPA administrator Scott Pruitt, who was also once Oklahoma’s Attorney General, followed by Inhofe's Chief of Staff Luke Holland,   Congressman Markwayne Mullin, Lt. Governor Matt Pinell, and former Lt. Governor Todd Lamb respectively. Pruitt’s candidacy has drawn comparison to Kris Kobach’s campaign, although Oklahoma is far less friendly to Democrats, and there have been no serious democratic challengers to emerge as of yet. Current Rating: Safe R.

Oregon:
Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley is running for a third term. Oregon was once a competitive state, but that is a bygone era at this point. He is expected to comfortably win re-election. Rating: Safe D.

Rhode Island:
Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed is seeking re-election to a fifth term. He is facing perennial candidate Allen Waters as the Republican nominee. Both where unopposed for their respective nominations. Reed is expected to win handedly. Rating: Safe D.

South Carolina:
Incumbent Lindsey Graham is seeking re-election to a fourth term. Like Tillis, he has burned many bridges in his own party, with both conservatives and moderates alike, over his handling of President Trump and his agenda. On the other side, Democrats have united around Jamie Harrison, a party executive. Graham has not yet gotten a serious primary challenger, but the perceived weakness is still present. Current Rating: Lean R

South Dakota:
It is all but a forgone conclusion that the republicans will keep this seat. However, first term incumbent Mike Rounds is facing a potentially serious primary challenge from Scyller Borglum, a state representative. Whether her efforts will amount to anything remains to be seen, but even if she is successful, she would be an overwhelming favorite to win the seat. Current Rating: Safe R.

Tennessee:
Incumbent Lamar Alexander is retiring after three terms in office. Like in Oklahoma, this has kicked off a crowded Republican Primary with over 20 candidates having filed for the seat. Leading them are former Ambassador Bill Haggerty, former Representatives Marsha Blackburn and Stephen Fincher, surgeon Manny Sethi, and State Rep Mae Beavers. Haggerty holds a fundraising lead, but Blackburn currently leads the polls by less than 1% in the aggregate. The Democrats are likely to nominate James Mackler, an army veteran who previously ran against Senator Bredesen in the 2018 primary. Current Rating: Safe R.

Texas:
Incumbent Republican John Cornyn is seeking a fourth term in office. He faces nominal opposition within the Republican party. Democrats have a hectic primary, with the two leading candidates being Mike Collier, a party activist, and State Senator Royce West. Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez has also attracted substantial attention as a strong, left leaning candidate. Cornyn is considered the favorite to win re-election, but with Beto O’Rourke’s upset victory in 2018, Democrats have hopes that they can make lightning strike twice. Rating: Lean R.

Virginia
Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is seeking a third term in office. He is unopposed for re-nomination. Republicans have struggled with candidate recruitment, with late-commer Daniel Glade emerging as the best-worst-option for the party. While Republicans nearly took this seat in 2014, they will need a miracle to even make this race competitive. Current Rating: Likely D.
.
West Virginia
Incumbent Republican Shelly Moore Capito is seeking a second term in office. Democrats are rallying around state senator Richard Ojeda, who nearly won a highly competitive house race last cycle. Despite his perceived strength, Ojeda is a major longshot. Current Rating: Likely R.

Wyoming:
Incumbent Mike Enzi is retiring after four terms. While this could have lead to a competitive primary, former congresswoman Cynthia Lummis was able to effectively box out the rest of the competition, and is likely to coast her way into the Senate. Current Rating: Safe R


Current Predictions:
Democrats: 38 seats not up, 6 safe, 5 likely, 2 Lean - 51 Total Seats
Republicans: 26 seats not up, 7 safe, 6 likely, 3 lean - 42 Total Seats
Independents: 2 seats not up, 0 safe, 0 likely, 0 lean - 2 Total Seats
Toss-ups: 5 seats

[BigVic]

Wonder how COVID will look like here

[Edgeofnight]

Wonder how COVID will look like here

Not to type the hand to much, but I think its going to be radically different than OTL.

[Edgeofnight]

Shifting back to the summary style posts - they seem to get more positive feedback, and move the timeline along in a more productive manner. I'll switch back and forth as it seems fit, and no, there will be no consistency beyond my own whims.

[Edgeofnight]

January 2020:
   New Year, Same Political BS.

   The new year kicked off with former Ohio Governor John Kasich making his long-awaited, and expected, campaign announcement. The move was unsurprising to anyone paying attention to American politics - Kasich had long been a critic of President Trump and liberal democrats alike, and had spent most of 2018 and 2019 on a cross country “Two Paths” tour. This tour emphasized the deep political divides between the two parties, and argued that unless a new political apparatus emerged to bridge the gap, every day Americans would suffer. If that sounds like a bunch of platitudes, its because it was. And that is all Kasich had at this point, beyond a few vague policy statements about balancing the budget and leaving abortion “up to individual states.”

Kasich’s launch event showcased the exact types of voters that he was going for. The six campaign chairs - Howard Schultz, Justin Amash, Evan McMullin, Diane Savino, Eric Ulrich, and Heidi Heitkamp, were a mix of Democrats and Republicans who clung to the center of their party. His goal, at least on paper, was to capture dis-illusioned Americans from both parties, as well as independents not affiliated with either party.

To the Governor’s credit, there were some early signs worth the optimism. After announcing, Kasich consistently polled in the high teens, far better than any third party candidate had polled in over 20 years, and raised over $500,000 in the five days following his announcement. That, plus some money raised prior to his announcement by his PAC, and his leftovers from past campaigns, gave him a little over 1.4 million as a starting point, which he used to finance a team of high level advisors and chart a tour across America.

While Kasich and his 30-biggest-fans piled into a stuffy double decker bus, Democrats parked themselves in Iowa, getting ready for the big contests in early February. Sherrod Brown started the month with a nearly seven point lead, and didn’t seem to show any signs of slowing down. Each of the other candidates had doubled down on the state, trying to carve some sort of path forward for themselves. Warren, most significantly, sought to angle herself as a compromise between Biden and Sanders, striking a more moderate tone on healthcare and trade, while re-emphasizing her support for a Wealth Tax. The move drew ire from some of her long time supporters, who believed that she was selling out to try and bolster her own chances. Her sudden criticisms of single-payer healthcare, in particular, hurt her image as a progressive advocate, and led to the resignation of at least two mid-senior level campaign staff.

Bloomberg also substantially shifted his strategy, though in a different manner than Warren. Perhaps recognizing the writing on the wall, Bloomberg slowed down his spending in the four early primary states, while nearly tripling his ad buys and campaign staffing in Super Tuesday States. The move was a desperate attempt to rescue a campaign rapidly losing steam, but Bloomberg and his advisers believed that if they could place second in the Super Tuesday Contests, that they could box out the non-Sanders candidates and then face the Vermont Senator in a one-on-one.

The last notable shift in campaign strategy came from Brown himself. With nearly an 8 point lead in Iowa, and only a little less than double the amount of campaign stops as his nearest rival, Brown shifted his campaign's focus away from Iowa and towards New Hampshire. The Ohio Senator believed that the Hawkeye state was locked down, and thus sought to get a jump on subsequent contests in New Hampshire and, to a lesser extent, Nevada. With two weeks to go before Caucus day, Brown would hold his last pre-election event, leaving the state in the hands of his campaign surrogates.
This strategy opened the door for any candidate to catch up and try and close the gap. The one most poised to do so was second place candidate Bernie Sanders. Sanders maintained a noticeable lead in nationwide opinion polling, and nearly upset Hillary Clinton in Iowa four years prior, but he struggled to break down Sherrod Brown’s lead. Organized labor and older activists in the state had flocked to Brown’s campaign in the previous months, seeing him as a preferable option to Biden and more viable than Sanders or Warren. Accordingly, Sanders campaign team set a strategy of targeting young voters and maximizing youth turnout. This task, as it turns out, is far easier said than done. Motivating youth to vote at all was difficult, let alone vote in primaries. Combine this with a 2019 bill that made voting for college students in the state far more difficult, and the Sanders campaign had their work cut out for them. Still, leveraging a substantial donor network, Sanders surged his field operations in the state. His supporters in the state also crafted a strategy of campaigning against Brown, rather than for Sanders. To do this, many of his volunteers, including some 2016 campaign Alumnus, campaigned with Warren or Biden supporters, and emphasized the weaknesses of Brown, rather than any particular strength of the other candidates. The move was met with some backlash, leading Sanders to call for a “clean campaign” and discouraging his supporters from “dishonest tactics.” Still, there was a method to the madness. The Sanders campaign was improving, and by the end of the month, he had narrowed the gap between himself and Brown to only 3 points.

That leaves but one major candidate: Joe Biden. The Biden campaign started with what seemed an air of inevitability. The former vice president led the polls, and had the money and the institutional support needed to leverage that lead. But somewhere along the way, Democrats had lost faith in their once-favorite-son. The campaigns of Bloomberg and Holder were perfect representations of that, and the month of January failed to reverse the trend. If anything, it made it far worse, as rumors of Biden’s mental acuity circulated in the press and conservative circles. In the month of January alone, Biden named the wrong state at 4 different events, plus calling Iowa (the Hawkeye state) the wrong nickname twice in a row, once calling it the Granite State (New Hampshire) and then “correcting” that to the Buckeye state (Ohio). Biden surrogates and spokespeople downplayed the rumors, and the former Vice President even made a self-deprecating joke at one the debates. But still, it raised serious concerns among some in the party about Biden’s ability to handle the campaign trail.

On the Republican side, Trump personally acknowledged Flake for the first time at an event in Florida, calling the former senator a “Democratic plant.” But this acknowledgement was literally the only major change in the state of that race. Paul Ryan made some headlines when declining to say which of the candidates for President he was voting for. Had he still been relevant in the Republican Party, this might have been news. But he isn’t, so let's move on.

Republicans at the state level continued their campaign against voting in Florida and Georgia. Unlike Arizona and Texas, however, Florida and Georgia had Democratic governors, and Republicans lacked the votes to overturn those vetoes. This position put a unique focus on Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum, with both stepping into the national spotlight to become the faces of the fight for the vote. Both vetoed bills that would have shuttered dozens of precincts, prompting outrage from conservatives on both fronts, who put forward the claim that the two governors were undermining the integrity of elections in their states.

On the policy side of things, much of Trump’s mental bandwidth was consumed by the campaign, but the campaign was the perfect excuse to make “policy” statements. At the aforementioned Florida event, Trump took the chance to ponder the possibility of military action against Venezuela, much to the terror of the international community and diplomatic corps. At least for the time being though, it seemed like empty threats, but it was enough to kick start candidates' interest in foregin policy for two weeks. The foreign policy hacks were truly having their moment in the sun in January, as Trump also kicked started Gen Z’s fear of World War 3 with the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. Nothing would come of these elevated tensions.

Trump also took the chance to push the standard culture war issues - Abortion, immigration, and voting rights. These were all standard affairs for the Party in campaign season, but Trump made sure to pursue them with extra fervor and rage. He encouraged his supporters to blockade abortion clinics (a crime) and to “closely monitor” polling stations in the upcoming election (likely a crime). On immigration, Trump brought back his infamous wall, claiming Democrats in congress had stopped his wall and that “throwing them out” was the only way to get the wall passed.

On their end, the Democrats in DC had keenly focused all of their efforts on doing absolutely nothing. It's not that there was a lack of legislation to move on. Democrats had crafted ambitious healthcare reform bills, gun control laws, campaign finance reform, even a bill making community college free and forgiving college debt. The problem was that Democrats couldn’t agree on what to move. The ambitious healthcare bills were conflicting in their calls for a single-payer system, versus a public option, versus expanding medicaid, and even more. Neither the House nor the Senate leadership teams felt like hashing out these political fights when the Republican president was certain to veto anything (if they could get him to the White House in the first place). 

There was a new pending political fight brewing behind the scenes - a new impeachment movement. The closed door Select Committee hearings had been investigating Whistleblower complaints, and several of the members had expressed their “deepest concerns” about the testimony they had received in these hearings. But democratic leadership was split. The concern was that the first impeachment attempt had burned too much political capital to pursue the complaints any further. Many in congress, however, felt that to ignore these complaints would be to eschew justice. The majority of house democrats, especially those in competitive elections, felt content following leadership’s lead and putting a pin in the matter for now, but progressives in the party were holding on to hopes that the party would be more willing to move on it once the primaries had concluded.

By the end of January, Democrats could breathe a sigh of relief that there (probably) would not be any new candidates for president. That's probably the only positive at this point - global tensions remained high, a new virus was making the rounds in China, and the path to the nomination seemed impossibly long. Still, things were only going to get more chaotic.

--
Next time will finally have some graphics, and should be out relatively soon

[Edgeofnight]

The 2020 Iowa Caucus
Because nothing can ever be simple

   The Iowa Caucuses opened a bitterly cold morning to massive, massive crowds of Democratic voters. The cold did not tame excitement at all - for many voters, this was their first ever caucus, and they were optimistic about the future, brimming with energy for their chosen candidates, and all around happy to be taking part in a classic American tradition.
   How naïve they were. The Caucus system itself was archaic, and it thrived on the odd chaos that was caused by that archaism. But this year’s Democratic contest was uniquely chaotic, in an exhausting and soul crushing way for those on the ground and those trying to follow the results. Many of these were rooted in well-intentioned, poorly implemented reforms aimed at increasing the accessibility, representativeness, and overall manageability of the Caucuses. But issues in managing larger than expected crowds, the confusing ranked choice voting rules, and software difficulty only served to slow down the caucus process. Add in the allowance of absentee ballots, and the difficulty in factoring those into the on-the-ground caucuses, and it shouldn’t be a surprise that the race was a hot mess.
But Republicans didn’t have any of those, so we’ll start with that.

No one was shocked that Trump won a resounding victory, but it was shocking that he didn’t win by more. Flake’s relative overperformance caught a number of people in both campaigns off guard. In Flake’s camp, many of his campaign staff had come to the conclusion that the best the Senator could hope for was a 5% performance in a couple of states before quietly ending his campaign and signing on with Kasich. Now 13% isn't a winning number by any stretch of the imagination, but it was a “moral victory” according to the insurgent candidate. In Trump’s camp, many seemed concerned about the implications of this result, but you couldn’t tell that from the President himself. Trump acted as if he had no challenger and won the contest unanimously, though the unphasable gravitas of the man is one of his defining features. But Flake’s performance is at least notable for already being the most successful challenge to a sitting president since Buchanan’s 1992 bid, although even that campaign failed to make any impact. Still, Flake was not ready to give up the goat yet.
And now, the main event - The Democratic sh**tshow. Brown and Sanders both claimed an early victory on election night, and then promptly ignored the other man’s declaration of victory. It's not hard to see why - less than 100 votes separated the two Senators, and with recounts and ranked choice voting, they were effectively tied before the final results were certified. Even if both candidates ignored the other’s victory declaration, their supporters could not, nor could the media. Mainstream talking heads claimed that this was indicative of a divided Democratic party and an omen for a contested convention, and the terminally online crowd claimed that this was evidence that the process was rigged (despite the party establishment being generally ambivalent about Brown).
The Iowa caucus results would take a full 72 hours to calculate. In those three days, Troy Price and Tom Perez would spend most of the time not fixing the issues and instead trading barbs at each other, with Price blaming DNC micromanagement for the delay, and Perez accusing Price of “underperforming” as party chair. The candidates seemed similarly disinterested in resolving anything. While the full results where still unknown, the candidates outside of the top two all instead focused on damage control - particularly the Biden and Steyer camps. Both candidates massively underperformed, and Biden’s folks in particular had to “temper [their] expectations.” The Warren and Klobuchar campaigns had a pleasant surprise with their performance. It wasn’t clear which of the two women would place third, but it was clear that one of them would be third and the other would be fourth. Considering both of them were trailing the nationwide pack, in 5th and 7th place respectively, the strong finish in Iowa gave both candidates a legitimate claim to momentum.
Regardless, after three days, final results were finally available to the public and the candidates, and only confirmed the fact that the Iowa caucuses produced no clear frontrunner.

And onto New Hampshire next.

2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Results, as of February 6th, 2020*
Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH) - 13 Delegates/42,565 PV/23.4%
Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) - 12 Delegates/42,455 PV/23.3%
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA) - 9 Delegates/23,777 PV/13.1%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN) - 7 Delegates/17,878 PV/9.8%
Fmr. NYC May. Michael Bloomberg (NY) - 0 Delegates/15,693 PV/8.6%
Fmr. Vice Pres. Joe Biden (DE) - 0 Delegates/12,799 PV/7.0%
Mr. Tom Steyer (CA) - 0 Delegates/9,121 PV/5.0%
Fmr. A.G. Eric Holder (DC) - 0 Delegates/7,391 PV/4.1%
Sen. Michael Bennet (CO) - 0 Delegates/3,186 PV/1.8%
Mr. Andrew Yang (NY) - 0 Delegates/3,095 PV/1.7%
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (HI) - 0 Delegates/2,895 PV/1.6%
Others - 0 Delegates/1,202 PV/0.7%
3,938 Delegates Remaining, 1,991 needed to win
First Round PV used for states with Ranked Choice Voting

2020 Republican Presidential Primary Results, as of February 6th, 2020
Pres. Donald Trump (NY/FL/DC) - 476 Delegates/39,285 PV/82.9%
Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake (AZ) - 5 Delegates/7,596 PV/16.0%
Others - 0 Delegates/507 PV/1.1%
2,069 Delegates Remaining, 1,276 needed to win

[Edgeofnight]

Redacted Pending Possible Revival