Minutes to Midnight: Rage and Partisanship in America

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Gillibrand jumps into the Presidential race; “It’s time to put a woman in charge!”



Please No.

[Edgeofnight]

Jan 22, 2019

Democratic House sends a series of progressive legislation.

   Taking advantage of their majorities in both chambers, Democrats in the house see a chance to force a vote on a number of progressive issues, including background checks for firearm purchases, campaign finance reform, and immigration reform, within the US Senate. It is unclear if any of them have a path forward, as all of these issues require a 60 vote threshold to break a Republican filibuster. A bipartisan criminal justice reform bill is also likely to pass the house in the next week.

Jan. 23, 2019

Controversial Attorney Michael Avenatti is seeking the Democratic Nomination

Controversy magnet and California Attorney Michael Avenatti has announced his intention to run for President as a Democrat. Avenatti, who has represented poronographic actress Stormy Daniels against the President and his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. Avenatti’s personal life came under heavy scrutiny  at the start of the year, leading him to demur on a potential Presidential campaign. However, Avenatti has seemingly shaken off that reluctance, and has now entered the Presidential race, with a formal launch set for an event in Iowa.

Feb. 1, 2019

Cory Booker makes long awaited Campaign announcement

   Up and coming Democratic Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey joined his colleagues in announcing his Presidential campaign. Booker, a first term senator, has consistently made national headlines throughout his tenure, with harsh questioning of Trump’s nominees for Attorney General and the Supreme Court. His charisma, policy chops, and fundraising skills make him a serious contender for the Democratic nomination.
   However, Booker is also weighed down by heavy ties to the pharmaceutical industry, frequently attacked over them by the party’s left wing. He was heckled at the 2016 DNC by Sanders supporters, and has frequently been branded as a “corporatist” by those in the party’s left wing. Although he has shifted towards the party’s left wing since the election of Donald Trump, his past record as a moderate and ties to big party donors will certainly weaken him among the party’s liberal and activist bases. 

Feb. 9, 2019

Sanders to launch second White House bid.

   Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, the leader of the American Progressive movement, has announced his plan to launch a second campaign for the White House in a statement put out to his Twitter. Sanders was previously a candidate during the 2016 Primaries, where he was defeated by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
   Sanders is credited with leading an ideological shift within the Democratic Party, leading the party’s establishment to adopt a more economically progressive platform in 2016 and 2018. In his statement on twitter, Sanders said that the country was in “dire peril” at the hands of Donald Trump, and presented his argument for a more progressive platform to defeat the incumbent President. Sanders undoubtedly starts as a front runner in the primary, consistently placing in the top three in opinion polling.

Feb. 13, 2019

Trump’s Trade war is killing the stock market and hurting him among rural voters

   Today, the stock market closed at a 1200 point loss, making it one of the most severe single day drops in history. The cause? Most analysts argue that the market uncertainty caused by the escalating trade war between the United States and China. As access to emerging markets is limited and supply lines are strained, investors are pulling back and the markets are hurting.
   But Wall Street isn’t the only one recoiling. Rural America is struggling without access to Chinese markets. As a result, Trump is losing ground in rural America, which backed him overwhelmingly in 2016. Republican strategists for both House Republicans and Trump himself have sounded their alarm over growing concerns that Trump’s trade war will cost the Presidency and the House in the upcoming 2020 elections.
 
Feb. 15, 2019

Former Vice President Joe Biden to enter the Democratic Primary.

   Rounding out the top tier of Democratic candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden has announced his intention to run for the Democratic nomination for President. Biden cited Trump’s conduct following the violence in Charlottesville as his motivation for running,  calling the President’s conduct “despicable.”
   Biden’s entrance into the race is unsurprising. The former Vice President had expressed regret over not running in 2016, and had been widely speculated as a candidate since 2017. Biden’s entrance makes him an immediate front runner in the race, as he holds a solid lead in public polling and in name recognition.

Feb. 23, 2019

Trump fires Mueller

   In a break from his prior statements, Trump has organized the dismissal of Special Counsel Robert Mueller. By ordering the resignation of Acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, Trump cleared the way for the new Acting-AG, Noel Francisco, to end the special counsel probe. The move has been met with swift backlash from both sides of the political aisle, with both Former Speaker Paul Ryan and Speaker Nancy Pelosi tweeting that the President had overstepped his boundaries and set a dangerous new precedent. Nationwide protests are planned for tomorrow evening. 



Opinion Polling in the 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Primary:
Fmr. Vice Pres. Joe Biden -- 21% (+5%)
Sen. Bernie Sanders -- 19% (+7%)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren -- 8% (-2%)
Sen. Cory Booker -- 5% (--)
Mr. Michael Avenatti -- 4% (+4%)
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 3% (-1%)
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 2% (-1%)
Fmr. Gov. Martin O’Malley -- 2% (--)
Mr. Howard Schultz -- 2% (--)
Fmr. Gov. Deval Patrick -- 2% (--)
Sen. Amy Klobuchar -- 2% (+1%)
Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 1% (-1%)
Sen. Sherrod Brown -- 1% (--)
Gov. Steve Bullock -- 1% (--)
Gov. Andrew Cuomo -- 1% (--)
May. Eric Garcetti -- 1% (--)
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 1% (+1%)
Mr. Andrew Yang -- 1% (+1%)
Rep. John Delaney -- 0% (--)
Rep. Tim Ryan -- 0% (--)
Ms. Marianne Williamson -- 0% (--)
Mayor Bill De Blasio -- 0% (--)
Undecided/Others -- 23% (-4%)

Opinion Polling in the 2020 Republican Party Primary:
Pres. Donald Trump -- 85%
Undecided/Others -- 15%

Other Candidates:

• Ben Gleib
• Henry Hewes
• Ami Horowitz
• Brian Moore
• Ken Nwadike Jr.,
• Sam Sloan
• Robby Wells

[Edgeofnight]

Endorsements in the 2020 Democratic Primary
As of February 23, 2019

Former Vice President Joe Biden:
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
Sen. Thomas R. Carper (D-DE)
Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE)
Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA)
Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL)
Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA)
Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA)
Rep. Dwight Evans (D-PA)
Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE)
Rep. Thomas Suzzoi  (D-NY)
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA)
Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-LA)
Gov. John Carney (D-DE)
Fmr. Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA)


Senator Bernie Sanders:
Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT)
Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT)
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA)
Rep. Mark Takano (D-CA)
Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ)
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH)
Fmr. Senator Donald Riegle (D-MI)
Fmr. Shadow Senator Jesse Jackson (D-DC)
Fmr. Governor Jesse Ventura (I-MN)
Fmr. Aníbal Acevedo Vilá (PPD-PR)

Senator Elizabeth Warren:
Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA)
Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-MA)
Rep. Lori Trahan (D-MA)
Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA)
Fmr. Gov. Mike Dukakis (D-MA)
Mayor Marty Walsh (D-MA)

Senator Cory Booker:
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ)
Rep. Donald Norcross (D-NJ)
Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D-NJ)
Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ)
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ)
Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ)
Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ)
Rep. Albio Sires (D-NJ)
Rep. Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D-NJ)
Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-NJ)
Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ)
Rep. Bonnie Watson-Coleman (D-NJ)

Senator Kamala Harris:
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA)
Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA)
Rep. Barbra Lee (D-CA)
Rep. Julia Brownley (D-CA)
Rep. Nanette Barragán (D-CA)
Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA)

Mr. Michael Avenatti:
None Notable

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand:
Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY)

Former Governor Martin O’Malley:
Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL)
Rep. Anthony Brown (D-MD)
Fmr. Sen. Gary Hart (D-CO)
Fmr. Gov. Jim Folsom Jr. (D-AL)
Mayor Catherine Pugh (D-MD)

Senator Amy Klobuchar:
Fmr. Vice President Walter Mondale (D-MN)
Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN)
Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN)
Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-CA)
Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN)
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN)
Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN)
Rep. Bett McCollum (D-MN)
Fmr. Gov Roy Barnes (D-GA)

Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro:
Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX)
Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX)
Rep. Vincente Gonzalez (D-TX)

Mr. Howard Schultz:
Fmr. Mayor Michael Nutter (D-PA)

Former Governor Deval Patrick:
Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA)
Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA)
Rep. Bobby Rush (D-IL)

Mayor Eric Garcetti:
Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-CA)

Representative Tulsi Gabbard:
Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson (L-NM)

Former Representative John Delaney:
Rep. Juan Vargas (D-CA)
Rep. David Trone (D-MD)

Mr. Andrew Yang:
Fmr. Mayor Steve Marchand (D-NH)

Representative Tim Ryan:
None Notable

Author Marianne Williamson:
Fmr. Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH)

Mayor Bill De Blasio:
None Notable

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Endorsing Michael Avenatti, $25 donation to his campaign

[Proud Houstonian]

Tragic to see this TL Die

[Edgeofnight]

Tragic to see this TL Die

TL is not dead, new update will come tomorrow (probably).

I am moving irl and thats been rough in terms of getting things set up and finding time to write.

[Edgeofnight]

February 25, 2019

Mueller protests turn violent in several states, killing 12.

   As protesters in several cities clashed with counter protesters and even law enforcement, in four cities the Muller events turned violent and deadly, leaving a dozen people dead and even more injured. Los Angeles, Lincoln, Albany, and Atlanta all experienced violence that caused at least one death during last night's protests.

February 25, 2019

Progressive Democrats call for a general strike after Trump’s dismissal of Mueller

   On a T.V. Interview, Our Revolution President Nina Turner floated the possibility of a general strike in response to the firing of Robert Mueller. “If we don’t make this sting, he’ll get away with it,” said Turner when asked what Democrats should do to hold Trump accountable for his decision to fire Mueller. “I think there should be a general strike. Everyone should be out in the streets demanding that something be done about this.”

February 26, 2019

Democrats clamor for impeachment as Trump’s approval ratings fall.

   President Trump has landed in possibly his hottest water yet. 39 members of Congress have publicly called for impeachment of President Trump. Articles of Impeachment are being drafted and circulated among the members. Even leaders in his own party are condemning his actions. As articles of impeachment circulate among the members of the chamber, Trump’s Presidency stands at its rockiest point yet, with approval ratings rapidly plummeting. Currently, the President sits at 38% approval ratings,  and even among members of his own party, the President is losing ground.

February 26, 2019

Presidential Candidates are mixed on impeachment.

   As congressional Democrats begin the impeachment process into President Trump, Democratic Presidential candidates are split over the prospect of impeachment. Senators Sanders and Warren, both leading Progressive candidates, have publicly supported impeachment, and plan to vote for conviction if articles of impeachment reach the Senate. On the other side of the coin, Tulsi Gabbard, Martin O’Malley, and even Joe Biden have all expressed doubts about the impeachment process. “I would prefer to see him removed by the Democratic process,” said Biden when pressed by reporters. 

February 27, 2019

Cities Brace for further violence as third night of Mueller Protests begins

   As Americans continue to protest the Trump administration's decision to dismiss Mueller, cities across the country brace for violence. Earlier today,  Eddie Johnson, the Chicago Police Superintendent, issued a public plea for protests to remain peaceful, but stated that the Chicago Police Department was prepared for violence if things were to come to that.

February 28, 2019

Organizer of deadly Albany counter-protest arrested on conspiracy charges.

   Charles Lamb, a man from Northern New York, was arrested on conspiracy charges after law enforcement obtained documents detailing his plans to attempt the assassination of several New York politicians in what Police call a “political hit-list.” The list includes New York DA Cyrus Vance, Attorney General Lelita James, and Governor Andrew Cuomo, among others.

February 28, 2019

Senator Jeff Flake forms exploratory committee to challenge Trump

   In an op-ed in the Washington Post, Former Arizona Senator Jeff Flake announced the formation of an exploratory committee to challenge President Trump in the Republican Party primary. “If someone in our party doesn’t stand up and hold the President accountable, then our party will be lost for a generation.”


Opinion Polling in the 2020 Republican Party Primary:
Pres. Donald Trump -- 81%
Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake -- 9%
Undecided/Others -- 10%


Democratic Presidential Candidates' stance on Impeachment:
Avenatti - Against
Biden -  Against
Booker - For
Castro - For
De Blasio - For
Delaney - Unknown
Gabbard - Against
Garcetti - Unknown
Gillibrand - For
Harris - For
Klobuchar - Unknown
O’Malley - Against
Patrick - Unknown
Ryan - Unknown
Sanders - For
Schultz - For
Steyer - For
Warren - For
Williamson - Unknown
Yang - Unknown

[BigVic]

Trump firing Mueller ITTL

[Edgeofnight]

March 2, 2019

Trump’s silence on Mueller protests worries Republicans

   As protesters stage sit-ins in congressional offices, and some cities prepare day six of marches, Trump remains silent on the decision to dismiss Special Counsel Mueller. Having made no public appearances since the protests began, Republican leaders are worried that Trump’s absence is an implicit admission of guilt. A spokesperson for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell stated that “the Minority Leader would prefer to see the President make some sort of statement about the decision.”

March 4, 2019

Flake formally enters Presidential race

   Jeff Flake has made his longshot presidential campaign official today, declaring his intention to “reclaim the soul of Reagan” from President Trump. The former Senator opened his campaign with a home state rally in Phoenix Arizona. To a crowd of roughly 200 supporters, Flake acknowledged that he was an underdog, saying “the road before us is long and uncertain,” but argued that once the campaign begins in earnest that “conservatives will come to their senses.”

March 5, 2019

Pelosi won’t stop impeachment proceedings, but won’t commit to them either.

In a bizarre  public statement, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gave her blessing to the House to begin their impeachment inquiry into President Trump over his decision to fire Robert Mueller. However, Pelosi also states that high ranking Democratic leadership would “remain neutral” during the initial inquiry. The move is seen by some as a strategic decision to distance the unpopular speaker from the impeachment process, but some Democratic strategists believe that Pelosi is waiting to see how popular the inquiry is before committing to it.

March 7, 2019

Avenatti aims at Warren: “She's a dunce.”

   At a campaign event outside of Waterloo, IA, Democratic presidential hopeful Michael Avenatti took aim at fellow contender Elizabeth Warren. Opening a tirade against the Massachusetts Senator, Avenatti discussed her plans for a wealth tax, immigration reform, and healthcare. “She’s a dunce. She’s a fool. Who’s gonna vote for her?” said the California Attorney to a crowd of a few hundred supporters. But Warren was not the only target of Avenatti’s rage. He called Senator Sanders “a spook,”
   Avenatti’s stock as a candidate has risen in recent weeks, troubling Democratic leaders. Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, who has yet to endorse any one candidate, told Politico “we shouldn’t nominate someone who doesn’t take the job seriously”  when asked about Avenatti.

March 10, 2019

Lesser known Democrats see chaos as a chance to rise up

   As congressman Seth Moulton enters the presidential contest, he joins four other Democrats who have entered the race in the past three weeks. Two governors, John Hickenlooper of Colorado and Jay Inslee of Washington, as well as fellow Congressman Eric Swalwell and former Senator Mike Gravel have all launched longshot campaigns for the Democratic nominations.
   These men all have one thing in common: None of them have a serious shot at winning the Democratic nomination. All of them are unknowns, plagued by low name recognition. Recent polls note that Jay Inslee is the most known of the new candidates, with 13% of Democrats having an opinion of any kind towards Inslee.
   Despite this, the new crop of candidates remains energized. The main reason, as Moulton’s campaign put it, was the “total chaos” of the field. “There is appetite for an insurgent,” said Robby Mook, a former Clinton campaign lead and political strategist. “There is room for someone to catch fire.”

March 13, 2019

Trump calls for organizers of “Mueller Riots” to be investigated

   In typical Trump fashion, President Trump made a public statement today to throw fuel on the nearest fires. When asked about the ongoing protests across the country, the President pressed the organizers of the “Mueller Riots” should be investigated by federal law enforcement for “inciting violence.” Despite the plethora of evidence that most protests were peaceful, President Trump has taken to making the protests a wedge issue as the presidential campaign heats up, using the issue to decry Democratic leadership and claim that they can not control their cities.




Opinion Polling in the 2020 Republican Party Primary:
Pres. Donald Trump -- 77% (-4%)
Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake -- 13% (+4%)
Undecided/Others -- 10% (--)

Opinion Polling in the 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Primary:
Fmr. Vice Pres. Joe Biden -- 22% (+1%)
Sen. Bernie Sanders -- 21% (+2%)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren -- 8% (--)
Mr. Michael Avenatti -- 6% (+2%)
Sen. Cory Booker -- 3% (-2%)
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 3% (--)
Mr. Tom Steyer -- 3% (+1%)
Fmr. Gov. Martin O’Malley -- 2% (--)
Mr. Howard Schultz -- 2% (--)
Sen. Amy Klobuchar -- 2% (--)
May. Eric Garcetti -- 2% (+1%)
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 1% (-1%)
Fmr. Gov. Deval Patrick -- 1% (-1%)
Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper - 1% (+1%)
Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 1% (--)
Gov. Jay Inslee -- 1% (+1%)
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 1% (--)
Mr. Andrew Yang -- 1% (--)
Fmr. Rep. John Delaney -- 1% (+1%)
Rep. Eric Swalwell -- 0% (--)
Rep. Tim Ryan -- 0% (--)
Rep. Seth Moulton -- 0% (--)
Ms. Marianne Williamson -- 0% (--)
Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel -- 0% (--)
Mayor Bill De Blasio -- 0% (--)
Undecided/Others -- 18% (-5%)

Other Candidates:

• Rocky De La Fuente

Other Candidates:

• Ben Gleib
• Henry Hewes
• Ami Horowitz
• Brian Moore
• Ken Nwadike Jr.,
• Sam Sloan
• Robby Wells

All images are either Public Domain or allowed for use by Gage Skidmore under CC BY-SA 2.0 or CC BY-SA 3.0

Democratic Presidential Candidates' stance on Impeachment:
Avenatti - Against
Biden -  Against
Booker - For
Castro - For
De Blasio - For
Delaney - Unknown
Gabbard - Against
Garcetti - Unknown
Gillibrand - For
Gravel - For
Harris - For
Hickenlooper - Unknown
Inslee - For
Klobuchar - Unknown
Moulton - Against
O’Malley - Against
Patrick - Unknown
Ryan - Unknown
Sanders - For
Schultz - For
Steyer - For
Swalwell - For
Warren - For
Williamson - Unknown
Yang - Unknown

[Utah Neolib]

bump

[Edgeofnight]

Bumping Ahead of an update sometime in the next week. Regular updates should resume during the month of August, before another pause in September.

[Edgeofnight]

I am going to bring this timeline back, would it be better to do a summary part covering everything between the last update and Winter 2019? That way, we've jumped ahead to the start of the primaries, or would the preference be traditional style posts?

[Lord Admirale]

I am going to bring this timeline back, would it be better to do a summary part covering everything between the last update and Winter 2019? That way, we've jumped ahead to the start of the primaries, or would the preference be traditional style posts?

Summary would probably be best papi

[BigVic]

I am going to bring this timeline back, would it be better to do a summary part covering everything between the last update and Winter 2019? That way, we've jumped ahead to the start of the primaries, or would the preference be traditional style posts?

Jump to the start of the primaries then cover the GE and fallout

[Edgeofnight]

I've decided on summary posts for Spring, Summer, Fall and maybe winter 2019. After that, I will revert it to the traditional news excerpts style format, since I think that covers the "horse-race" stuff better.

Spring 2019

     With an energized base, an unpopular and legally challenged incumbent, and enough candidates to field a football team, the Democratic Primary was well underway by Spring 2019. By mid-March, a consistent top tier of candidates had emerged between Biden, Sanders, Warren, Avenatti,  Booker, Harris, Steyer and Schutlz, consistently topping the polls. Steyer and Schutlz were wealthy enough to self fund campaigns, and Avenatti was consistently boosted by controversial statements and a bombastic campaign style. At a rally in New Hampshire, Avenatti said “when they go low, we kick them in the ass,” referencing his prior riff on Michelle Obama’s famous quote. Avenatti’s crass demeanor and quip centered campaigning drew a number of news headlines comparing him to Donald Trump, and it was a frequent point of criticism from his fellow Democrats. Biden told reporters “we don’t win by running our own Donald Trump,” and Warren accused Avenatti of sketchy legal practices and implied misogyny on a number of occasions. Ultimately, there was no denying that Avenatti’s strategy was working, as by the end of March, Avenatti sat with 7% in the polls, placing him firmly in 3rd place.

   The remaining top tier candidates all tried to carve out more traditional or expected paths to the nomination. Biden and Harris ran as more centrist alternatives to their progressive counterparts, with Harris emphasizing the need for a fresh face, and Biden emphasizing his decades of experience in politics. Warren and Sanders, predictably, centered their campaigns around the standard “progressive wish-list,” putting forward plans for tuition free colleges, universal healthcare, and large scale criminal justice reform.  These campaigns also based their funding on a network of committed small donors, skewing the traditional practices of large scale, big ticket fundraisers. Booker, meanwhile, tried to angle himself between these two groups, positioning himself to be more progressive than Biden and Harris, but more “mainstream” than Warren and Sanders. It remained to be seen how effective this strategy would be under fire, but for the moment, his pitch as a “humble city boy with ambitious ideas” seemed to give enough of a niche to remain relevant as more candidates jumped in.

   Meanwhile, the Months of March and April brought a number of new candidates to the race as well. Most notably among them were New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown. Cuomo, sensing weakness in Biden, sought to position himself as a “pragmatic progressive” who could make change happen, but wouldn’t completely upend the status quo. Behind closed doors, the move drew ire from Biden and his camp. The former Vice President had called Cuomo before his announcement, and the New York Governor promised his support to President Biden once the race heated up. But for some reason, communications between the two men broke down, and Cuomo apparently decided that he could make his own way as a candidate. Sherrod Brown, on the other hand, had a unique positon within the party. While still decidedly less progressive, Sherrod Brown was one of the more populist members of his party, and was popular with organized labor and blue collar workers, a group that Democrats believe cost them the 2016 election. Despite also being from a relatively red state, Brown managed to win re-election easily, and did so without shrinking to the political center. Still, Brown would have a long road ahead of him. With a crowded primary filled with big personalities that ate up most of the air, Brown’s low name recognition seemed damning at this stage of the primary. And with the debate qualifying deadline only a few weeks away, every candidate was clamoring to get new donors onboard with their campaign. Also worth noting were a few candidates who passed on presidential bids, namely South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Texas Senator Beto O’Rourke. Buttigieg had made some smaller waves during the 2017 race for DNC chair, and seemed poised to launch a presidential campaign, but for whatever reason pulled out last minute to launch a congressional bid instead. O’Rourke attracted some attention, having unseated Ted Cruz during the 2018 midterms, but repeatedly noted that he was committed to his job in the U.S. Senate.

   On the Republican Side of the race, former Senator Jeff Flake’s longshot bid to unseat President Trump continued to pick up some steam. By the end of the quarter’s fundraising deadline, Flake had raised over four million dollars, far more than any other intra-party challenger to a sitting president in years. He had also picked up a number of medium-profile endorsements, mostly former Bush cabinet secretaries, ex-Governors, and a few libertarians. While Flake enjoyed a brief moment in the sun, peaking in the polls at about 15%, he would soon hit a stumbling point. When former Congressmen Joe Walsh and Mark Sanford entered the race, Flake’s small niche of “anti-Trump Republicans” narrowed even further. By the end of April, Flake’s polling had dropped to only 6%, with Sanford and Walsh having 4% and 3% respectively.

   The down ballot races remained relatively quite, drowned out by the overwhelming noise about the Presidential race. At this point in time, Congressman Ben Ray Lujan consolidated Democratic support to replace retiring senator Tom Udall in New Mexico.  Without Hickenlooper in the race, the Colorado Senate election quickly became crowded, as Democrats and Republicans alike sought to unseat unpopular incumbent Cory Gardner. And in Arizona, appointed Republican Martha McSally was too busy fending off a challenge from her right to focus on the growing strength of the Democratic candidates. The most watched races, however, came out of the South East in Alabama and Georgia. In Alabama, Republicans clammored to be the guy to take on Doug Jones, the Democratic incumbent who was seen as a massive underdog in the race for re-election. While no clear leaders had emerged yet, former Attorney General Jeff Sessions was quietly reading himself for another bid at his old seat. Meanwhile in Georgia, Stacey Abrams upset win against Brian Kemp in the 2018 Governor’s race convinced Democrats that they had a fighting chance to unseat incumbent David Perdue. Additionally, the other incumbent, Johnny Isakson, was facing worsening health, and Democrats were preparing for a possible run at his seat as well. But before they could face either Perdue or an open seat, Democrats had to face each other first. Sarah Riggs Amico, who narrowly lost the Lt. Governor’s race the previous year, opened the primary as a weak leader. Amico had underperformed Abrams by a substantial margin, enough to sway the results of the election in Republican Geoff Duncan’s favor, and Democrats were wary of giving her another chance when the stakes were so high. Her leading opponents, Jon Ossoff and Theresa Tomilinson, both angled for high-profile backers. Ossoff had the support of Representatives John Lewis and Hank Johnson, the former a famous civil rights icon. Tomilinson, meanwhile, touted her support among state legislators and branded Ossoff as a DC insider and Amico as a career political loser. Notably absent from each candidate’s endorsements was Governor Stacey Abrams, who was seen as a kingmaker in the race. Still, each Senate race remained relatively fluid this early into the cycle.

   Outside of the horse-race campaigning, politics outside of Washington became increasingly dominated by a sudden controversy. According to leaked text messages and voicemails,  Governor Pete Ricketts (R-NE) had apparently thought very little of the “March for Democracy” protesters who were slain by anti-Mueller counter-protestors. In the clips, Ricketts called the protestors “twerps,” “pr*cks,” “communists,” and “slugs,” among a few other derogatory names. The remarks garnered controversy in his home state, as politicians on both sides of the aisle jumped to attack Ricketts. However, the Governor had a number of defenders, including the President and a number of Republican Senators, including Senator Rand Paul and former Senator Ted Cruz.

   Meanwhile, in Texas, a legislative firestorm emerged when State House Republicans put forward an “electoral reform package”  that seemed to be in clear response to growing Democratic strength in the state. The package included four main components, the first two were relatively tame by Republican standards - ending state support for local election clerks, and requiring two forms of valid identification for voting would normally draw ire from activists, but the second two components were what really attracted a firestorm. Under the proposal, all statewide elections, bar the Presidential election, where the leading candidate has less than 50%, are to be settled by the state legislature. Perhaps even more egregious for liberal activists was the last provision, which introduced a “Maine Rule” in the state of Texas - allocating electoral votes by the number of Congressional Districts won. The bill was immediately  condemned by Texas Democrats and almost every Democratic Presidential candidate (Avenatti  declined to comment on the bill) as an authoritarian power grab, but President Trump praised the bill for “securing American Democracy” and encouraged other Republican states to put forward similar bills. Democrats have sworn to challenge the bill if it is passed. 
   
   In DC, meanwhile, the Impeachment of President Trump pressed on. Most of the “big time” testifiers in the Pre-impeachment process provided unexpectedly tame testimony. Both Comey and Wray provided their testimony first, but both stopped short of accusing the President of anything overtly criminal. Comey did note that the President had asked him to drop investigations into former National Security Advisor MIchael Flynn and had demanded loyalty from the former FBI chief. Wray, on the other hand, had to repeatedly decline to investigate Hillary Clinton, to the disappointment of Congressional Republicans. The remaining pre-impeachment witnesses similarly had low-key testimony, including Jeff Sessions and Rod Rosenstein. Notably absent from the House’s investigation were any current West Wing officials. While the House initially included them in their planned witnesses, leadership had them pulled from the witness roster to avoid a legal showdown with the Administration, punting that issue to the Senate for their trial. The most significant impeachment witness was former Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. McCabe, in his testimony, portrayed the FBI under Trump as a hollowed out organization designed to serve the President's political whims. He stated that he had been constantly aware of the President’s efforts to undermine the organization, and the efforts to oust both himself and Comey from their positions. McCabe’s comments where dismissed by President Trump, who tweeted that McCabe was “bitter AND dishonest, and calling him “an unrespectable loser,” and “closted liberal.” By the season's end, Democrats had drafted three articles of impeachment, two for obstruction of justice and one for abuse of power, and the vote was set for this summer.   

   In other news, the Administration continued its spat with China over trade issues. Trump accused China of currency manipulation, and China accused the US of “economic” imperialism in East Asia. The impacts of the economy continued to grow, and the nation was barreling towards a recession within the year.  Rumors in DC swirled of a potential cabinet reshuffling, as Trump elevated Kellyanne Conway to be his next Chief of Staff. An internal memo, allegedly drafted by Conway and her staff, showed that she was already interviewing prospective candidates for Secretary of Education, though the incumbent Secretary insisted that she was firm in her position.Trump again pushed to overturn the Affordable Care Act, at the urging of his new Chief of Staff. And the Crisis in Venezuela continued to divide DC, though no one really wanted to do anything about it. 

All the while, Trump’s public conduct, from his speeches at rallies and statements to the press, showcased an increasingly desperate President. It also brought with it new rumors. The President’s cognitive health was a frequent topic of discussion in the left-leaning press, and these rumors only continued to grow as the President’s speaking style became more “unhinged.” With a President feeling pressure from all sides,  and an increasingly disorganized opposition party, the political climate in the US was heading towards a breaking point.


Polling in the 2020 Republican Party Presidential Primary (May 1, 2019)
Opinion Polling in the 2020 Republican Party Primary:
Pres. Donald Trump -- 76%
Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake -- 7%
Fmr. Rep Mark Sanford -- 4%
Fmr. Rep. Joe Walsh -- 3%
Undecided/Others -- 10%

Opinion Polling in the 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Primary (May 1, 2019):
Sen. Bernie Sanders -- 16%
Fmr. Vice Pres. Joe Biden -- 13%
Sen. Elizabeth Warren -- 12%
Mr. Michael Avenatti -- 9%
Mr. Tom Steyer -- 5%
Sen. Cory Booker -- 4%
Mr. Howard Schultz -- 4%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar -- 3%
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 3%
Sen. Sherrod Brown -- 3%
Gov. Jay Inslee -- 2%
Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
Fmr. Gov. Deval Patrick -- 1%
Gov. Andrew Cuomo -- 1%
Mr. Andrew Yang -- 1%
Fmr. Gov. Martin O’Malley -- 1%
May. Eric Garcetti -- 1%
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 1%
Sen. Michael Bennet -- 1%
Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper - 1%
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 1%
Fmr. Rep. John Delaney -- 1%
Rep. Eric Swalwell -- 0%
Ms. Marianne Williamson -- 0%
Gov. Steve Bullock -- 0%
Rep. Tim Ryan -- 0%
Rep. Seth Moulton -- 0%
Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel -- 0%
Mayor Bill De Blasio -- 0%
Undecided/Others -- 20%


Republican Candidates Fundraising Data (March 31st):
President Donald Trump - $46,057,000/116,000 unique donors*
Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake - $4,323,000/14,000 unique donors*
Fmr. Rep. Mark Sanford - $326,000/3,000 unique donors*
Fmr. Rep. Joe Walsh - $182,000/ 5,000 unique donors*

Democratic Candidates Fundraising Data (March 31st):
Mr. Howard Schultz - $38.560,000/15,700 unique donors
Mr. Tom Steyer - $37,665,000/34,500 unique donors
Sen. Bernie Sanders - $20,054,000/187,600 unique donors
Fmr. VP Joe Biden - $18,056,000/98,000 unique donors
Fmr. Rep. John Delany - $13,050,000/5,300 unique donors
Sen. Elizabeth Warren - $11,035,000/122,000 unique donors
Sen. Kamala Harris - $10,200,000/106,000 unique donors
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand - $8,760,000/31,000 unique donors
Sen. Corey Booker - $6,980,000/64,000 unique donors
Sen. Amy Klobuchar - $6,645,000/49,000 unique donors
Mr. Michael Avenatti - $6,127,000/37,000 unique donors
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard - $3,202,000/54,000 unique donors
Gov. Andrew Cuomo - $2,905,000.17,000 unique donors
Fmr. Gov. Martin O’Malley - $2,310,000/17,000 unique donors
Rep. Eric Swalwell - $2,182,000/ 8,000 unique donors
Gov. Jay Inslee - $2,150,000/14,000 unique donors
Sen. Sherrod Brown - $1,805,000/ 24,000 unique donors
Rep. Seth Moulton - $1,634,000/6,000 unique donors
Mr. Andrew Yang - $1,583,000/37,000 unique donors
Fmr. Gov. Deval Patrcik - $1,380,000/19,000 unique donors
Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper - $1,278,000/11,000 unique donors
Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro - $1,205,000/21,000 unique donors
Ms. Marianne Williamson - $1,202,000/30,000 unique donors
May. Eric Garcetti - $1,030,000/14,000 unique donors
May. Bill De Blasio - $980,000/7,000 unique donors
Rep. Tim Ryan - $765,000/9,000 unique donors
Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel - $286,000/11,000 unique donors
May. Wayne Messam - $63,000/980 unique donors

* denotes an estimate. Republican candidates are not required to release the total number of individual donors.

This image is excessively large, so to actually see the infobox you'll need to click into it and open the original.

[Edgeofnight]

Summer 2019 (Pt. 1)

The Summer season was particularly warm - another record-breaking season. This fact, one of many signs of a growing climate crisis, was quickly known in the scientific communities. And in non-scientific communities, as every single American voter had this fact beat into their skull by the Democratic Presidential candidates. 

   Indeed, the summer heat was felt even in the Democratic Primary, as candidates shed suit jackets and dress pants for dark-colored polo’s, button-up shirts, and light-colored jeans. All except for Eric Swalwell, who made the mistake of wearing a light gray polo on a particularly sweltering Texas Summer afternoon. A picture of the congressman quickly made rounds on the internet and became a meme in conservative circles. But the candidates were also joined by a number of new faces, namely Colorado Senator Michael Bennet and Montana Governor Steve Bullock, who made late entries into the race in May. Joe Sestak would later join the race in June, the day of the first Democratic Debate.

   The memes about Swalwell’s sweaty back reached their apex point in early June when the Congressman became the first candidate to withdraw from the race. The decision likely had nothing to do with the bad memes, and more to do with bad poll numbers and poor fundraising. The California Congressman never rose above 1% in any poll and had fewer than 12,000 unique campaign donors. While his campaign probably could have held on for a few more weeks, the looming qualifying deadline and a growing primary challenge in his Congressional District likely sped up his decision.

   The race was also upended when in late May, Michael Avenatti was indicted for charges of tax evasion, extortion, fraud, and other white-collar crimes. These numbered over 50 in both New York and California and included allegations that he stole money from clients and attempted to extort Nike into paying him over 20 million USD. Avenatti’s legal troubles got worse when federal officials announced an investigation into “grievous misuses of Campaign funds” by Avenatti. The announcement stated that Avenatti had been siphoning money off of his campaign funds to pay for personal expenses, including staffing his own law firm, purchasing expensive clothing and dinners, and undisclosed payments to his ex-girlfriend for “campaign consulting.” His ex-girlfriend, who had previously accused him of domestic abuse, refused to comment through her own lawyer, and all these legal challenges prompted Avenatti to call foul play, accusing President Trump and the DNC of collaborating to stop his campaign. In actuality, Federal officials delayed bringing charges against Avenatti due to his position as a Democratic frontrunner, and the charges came as a result of a year-long investigation into Avenatti’s finances. Despite growing calls to end his campaign, Avenatti remained defiant and argued that Donald Trump was using the investigations to further divide the Democratic Party.

   The other looming game-changer was the first round of Primary Debates. 20 candidates, spread across two different nights would be invited to participate should they have either 65,000 unique donors or have hit at least 1% in major national polls. The DNC’s 20 candidate limit, which once seemed preposterously high, created a major crunch for candidates at the bottom of the political ladder. Yang, Williamson, and Gravel were niche candidates on the cusp of meeting the qualifying criteria, while candidates like O’Malley, Inslee, Patrick, and Garcetti had met the qualifications for inclusion, but were on the risk of being bumped out of the debate by that 20 candidate limit. With a crowded field, the first debate was seen as a make-or-break moment for most of the candidates outside of the top 8 or so, and thus failing to qualify could be a death knell for any one of these candidates.

   And that is exactly what happened. The 20 candidate lineup for the first round of debates included all of the top tier candidates: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Avenatti, Booker, and Harris, as well as middle-tier candidates such as Gabbard, Klobuchar, Schultz, and Steyer. It also featured the following, in no particular order: Hickenlooper, Gillibrand, Cuomo, Castro, Brown, Inslee, Garcetti, O’Malley, Patrick, Bennet. This left Bullock, De Blasio, Delaney, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Gravel, Williamson, and Yang excluded from the debate. The choice of line-up led to criticism from a number of activists, particularly due to Avenatti’s inclusion and Yang’s exclusion. Yang, who had well over 65,000 unique donors, was often excluded from major polling at this point in the race, and the active and numerous investigations into Avenatti should have been disqualifying for the California Attorney. In response to a mountain of criticism, including from many of the candidates in the debate, the DNC officially sanctioned a “lesser-known candidates” forum for the night before the debate, and promised to “reconsider” their qualifications before the next debate, but remained firm in their picks for the first round. And so, the damage was mostly done for some of these smaller campaigns. After the first debate rosters were released, Ryan and de Blasio both suspended their campaigns.

The candidates were randomly placed across the two nights of the event, rather than being sorted by polling position. Night 1 featured Warren, Harris, Klobuchar, Avenatti, Steyer, Gillibrand, Brown, Inslee, Garcetti, and Patrick. Senator Warren dominated the first night, with candidates either praising or admonishing the different planks of her platform. Warren herself called this fact out, saying that the other candidates had a lot to say about her ideas, but not much to say about their own. Warren also dedicated a substantial amount of her time to attacking Avenatti, comparing him to President Trump and calling his presence on stage a “vile distraction.” Avenatti fired back, calling Warren a “toothless dog,” which drew harsh criticism from Senators Gillibrand and Harris, as well as Warren herself. The other candidates all had a scattershot of different moments and quips, but none were truly worthwhile. In the end, the winners were declared to be Warren, Harris, and Brown, while the losers were labeled as Steyer, Avenatti, and Klobuchar.

The second night of the debate went similarly, with the other candidates dogpiling on either Sanders or Biden depending on which “wing” of the party they belonged to. The debate, which featured Sanders, Biden, Bennet, O’Malley, Booker, Gabbard, Schultz, Hickenlooper, Castro, and Cuomo, opened with Biden stumbling through his opening statement, much to the charaign of the President and the press. From there, the floodgates opened. Castro and Gabbard both got in shots on Biden, with Castro questioning Biden’s mental acuity and Gabbard denouncing his prior support for the Hyde Amendment. Cuomo and Hickenlooper both tried repeatedly to pick a fight with Senator Sanders, arguing that his ideas were too radical for the average American, and Sanders repeatedly invoked his grassroots support as evidence of his “electability.” In all, Sanders, Castro, and Booker were considered the winners, while Hickenlooper, Schultz, and Biden were considered the losers.

Whether or not debates actually matter is a frequent (and meme-worthy) debate among political talking heads. However, there clearly were some impacts to be derived from the first debate. Still, there were some noticeable shifts in the polling following the first debate. Brown, Warren, Sanders, and more all gained traction following the debate, while Biden, Avenatti, and Klobuchar all seemed to stall after the event. Biden had been teetering on the verge of third place before the debate but was firmly passed by Senator Warren afterward. Meanwhile, perhaps because of the debate, perhaps because of the legal trouble he was in, Avenatti’s polling numbers deflated, falling from an average of 10% all the way down to 3%, firmly placing him in 8th place. There was a lot of movement towards the bottom of the polls, but at this point none of that was relevant.

Despite prior promises to revise the qualification procedures, the DNC Debate committee did not change any of its qualifications between the first and second debates. Instead, the DNC simply allowed two additional competitors, bringing the total number of participants on each night to 11 candidates. More significantly, however, the DNC announced two days before the July 1 qualifying deadline, that Michael Avenatti would be barred from future debates due to the ongoing criminal charges. Again, this was met with a long-winded Twitter tirade from Avenatti, who also took legal action against the DNC to try and force his way into the debate. Despite this, Avenatti would not be present at the second debate, opening up a third new slot for a candidate to slip into. In the end, every other candidate present at the first debate was also present at the second debate as well, and Bullock, Delaney, and Yang joined that roster. After failing to qualify for the second debate in a row, Congressman Moulton ended his campaign.

Ultimately, the inclusion of a new candidate did little to change any of the prior debate’s dynamics. In terms of notable moments, Senator Brown scored a few good digs against Howard Schultz, Warren and Klobuchar spared over healthcare, Gabbard successfully ripped into Senator Harris, and Castro and Booker spent several minutes arguing in Spanish. The most notable change was the performance of President Biden. While the former Vice President didn’t have a particularly good night, he was able to avoid much of the attacks from the first debate by simply flying under the radar most of the evening. Unfortunately, the end of the second debate only meant that the jockeying for a spot in the third debate would increase. The third debate had far higher qualification thresholds, doubling those of the first two debates and reimposing the 20 candidate limit.

However, for Vice President Biden, the third debate would not be the only thing on his mind. On July 26th, former Attorney General Eric Holder announced his entrance into the Democratic Primary. Holder represented yet another former Biden ally reigning in on their decision to not run and enter the race against him. To many observers, Holder’s decision to run represented a growing concern with Biden’s prospects and a desire for an alternative option should Biden continue to stumble. Of course, Holder was just one of many candidates shooting for that angle, but he was the most obvious “Biden but not Biden” type of candidate.

On the Republican side, there were no debates to talk about. Not that they didn’t happen, just that they aren’t worth mentioning. Trump refused to participate, and so each of the debates was mostly his three challengers pretending they were running in a traditional primary. Conservative thought-leaders tried to consolidate anti-Trump support behind one candidate, usually Flake, but were struggling to do so. Meanwhile, former Ohio Governor John Kasich officially left the GOP, ahead of an anticipated third-party Presidential bid. Kasich officially denied the rumors, but at this point, it was all but confirmed that he would be launching a campaign later in the year when he onboarded new top-level advisors, mostly McCain-Campaign Alumni.

The 2020 down-ballot races remained nothing more than background noise, but this season they were even further relegated to third-string status as the 2019 Gubernatorial Elections began to heat up. While the media repeatedly attempted to make these races into proxies for the 2020 election, these races were all far more nuanced than that. In Louisiana, Governor John Bel Edwards was a conservative Democrat seeking re-election to a second term. The state’s jungle primary system meant that all six of his challengers and the incumbent himself would appear on an October primary ballot. Those challengers included Republican Congressman Ralph Abraham, Republican donor Eddie Rispone, and businessmen Gary Landrieu and John Georges. Georges was running on the newly minted “Serve America Movement,” which had previously fielded a candidate in New York’s 2018 Gubernatorial Election, while Landrieu ran as an unaffiliated candidate. Polling for the primary had Edwards with a large lead, with Rippsone and Abraham effectively tied for second, and Georges and Landrieu tied for fourth. In Mississippi, state Attorney General Jim Hood had effectively locked down the Democratic nomination, while Lt. Governor Tate Reeves was struggling to get the more conservative factions of his party under control. Meanwhile, in Kentucky, the highest-profile race of the year, State Attorney General and incumbent Governor Matt Bevin both prevailed in their respective primaries, setting the stage for a high-stakes showdown in the fall.


2019 Louisiana Gubernatorial Election, Jungle Primary Polling:
Gov. John Bel Edwards* -- 36%
Mr. Eddie Ripsone -- 18%
Rep. Ralph Abraham -- 17%
Mr. John Georges -- 6%
Mr. Gary Landrieu -- 5%
Undecided/Others -- 18%

2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Election, Hood vs Reeves
State A.G. Jim Hood -- 44%
Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves 42%
Undecided/Others -- 14%

2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Election, Hood vs Waller
State A.G. Jim Hood -- 47%
State Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. -- 40%
Undecided/Others -- 13%

2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Election, Republican Primary
Lt. Gov Tate Reeves -- 37%
State Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. -- 30%
State Rep. Robert Foster -- 20%
Undecided -- 13%

2019 Kentucky Gubernatorial Election, Republican Primary Results:
Gov. Matt Bevin* -- 41.4%
Rep. James Comer -- 31.0%
State Rep. Robert Goforth -- 25.4%
Others -- 2.2%

2019 Kentucky Gubernatorial Election, Democratic Primary Results:
State A.G. Andy Beshear -- 36.4%
State Rep. Rocky Adkins -- 33.5%
Fmr. State Auditor Adam Edelen -- 28.2%
Others -- 1.9%

2019 Kentucky Gubernatorial Election, General Election Polling:
State A.G. Andy Beshear -- 43%
Gov. Matt Bevin* -- 39%
Undecided/Others -- 18%

There is a lot of "stuff" that happens in the Summer Season, so it was split into two parts to avoid character limits. Part 2 should be up tomorrow, with an updated candidates box and all that good jazz.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Go Biden! Good posts

[Edgeofnight]

Summer 2019 (Pt. 2)

At the state level, a new wave of abortion bills were set to challenge Roe v. Wade again. In all, 15 states enacted new laws limiting or even banning abortion entirely. While not the most ergigous of these abortion bans, the one in Louisiana attracted national attention due to the upcoming election, and the Democratic Party alignment of the sitting Governor. But beyond that, the strategy seemed entirely within the standard Republican playbook: pick a wedge social issue to fire up the base, and hit home on that at every possible chance. To their credit, it seemed to work, as fundraising for Republican organizations jumped up by nearly 20% once this strategy was rolled out.

Additionally, Texas Republicans were able to move forward their election reform package, despite Democrats staging a massive resistance to the bill, led mostly by U.S. Senator Beto O’Rourke and State Rep. Rafael Anchia. Texas Republicans did drop the State-Legislature run-off for Federal elections, but it remained in place for State Elections. The bill moved into the Senate, where it passed without further major revisions. Governor Abbott signed the bill into law, despite large-scale protests.  Now, the bill set the stage for a legal battle, one that could end up before the Supreme Court. However, it seems unlikely that the Courts will do anything to stop the bill, given the Conservative-bent of the Court, and Republicans in Texas where certainly assuming that they wouldn’t. Republicans in Arizona and Georgia made similar assumptions, introducing bills that where almost the exact same as the one passed in Texas. Governor Abrams (D-GA) promised to fight the bill, while Governor Doug Ducey (R-AZ) declined to comment on it.

The allegations against, and subsequent call for Governor Rickett’s resignation continued, but fell out of national spotlight in the wake of everything else going on. Still, the issue remained salient at the State level, and continued to put pressure on Senator Ben Sasse. Already targeted by Trump’s allies, Sasse’s silence pushed Governor Ricketts further against him. This became complicated when former legislator Beau McCroy entered the Republican primary against Sasse, setting up yet another “Trump vs Establishment” race.

One the impeachment front, House Democrats moved forward on voting for impeachment early in the season. In late June, the House began its final debate, and after three days, voted on the three articles of impeachment. They each passed in mostly a party-line vote, Article 1 Passed 228-200-1, Article 2 Passed 226-202-1, and Article 3 Passed 233-194-1. Gabbard voted “present” on the first two articles for the Obstruction of Justice, while voting for Article 3. Justin Amash (R-MI) voted for Articles 1 and 3, but against Article 2. In total, 6 Democrats voted against all three articles of impeachment: Jared Golden (ME-02), Collin Peterson (MN-07), Nate McMurry (NY-27), Kendra Horn (OK-05), Paul Davis (KS-02) and Ben McAdams (UT-04). Dan Feehan (MN-01) voted for Article 1, against Article 2, and Present on Article 3. The impeachment managers were set, with Adam Schiff leading, joined by Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Jason Crow, Amy McGrath, and Joaquin Castro.

The Senate decided to take the trail slowly, a decision probably influenced by the sheer number of Democratic members seeking the White House. The trial in the Senate was set with a tenative start date in early August, but that didn’t stop both sides of the trial from making early movements. In response to the House naming its impeachment managers, Trump named his legal team, to be led by former Attorney General Bill Bar, as well as White House Counsel Pat Cipollone, Professor Alan Dershowiz, former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, and former Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr. The Senate, in turn, formed its list of impeachment witnesses. This list overlapped with the House’s witness list, but also featured a number of White House Staff, including current Chief of Staff Kellyanne Conway, former Chief of Staff John Kelly, OBM Director Mick Mulvaney, and many more. It also featured both Sessions, Rosenstein, and Francisco, and Mueller himself, alongside most of his team. The White House had already been working on squashing testimony from as many witnesses they could, including Mueller. The schedule that the Senate set would have these witnesses testify over the course of ten weeks, ending with a vote tentatively scheduled for late November.

In other D.C. news, with most of the congressional bandwidth dominated by impeachment, little past in the means of substantive legislation. Trump, however, kept the DC media working with his new cabinet forming. In the span of the season, Trump lost five cabinet secretaries, one of which was his acting AG Noel Francisco. Alongside Francisco, Secretaries Betsy Devos (Education), Kirstjen Nielsen (Homeland Security), Sonny Perdue (Agriculture), and Steve Mnuchin (Treasury) all found themselves out of a job by the end of Summer. Each of them, except for Devos, all claimed to have left their roles willingly, but the message around DC was that they were each told to either resign or be fired. With the Justice Department hallowed out, Trump’s first batch of replacements came for the top four roles of that division: Josh Hawley for Attorney General, Matt Whitaker for Deputy Attorney General, Makan Derahim for Associate Attorney General, and Jeffery Rosen for Solicitor General. Trump also slotted in fmr. Rep. Luke Messer to be his new Secretary of Education. The Senate seemed pretty uninterested in moving on any of them, but both Hawley and Whitaker drew staunch opposition from Senate Democrats, including Sanders and Warren. 


Opinion Polling in the 2020 Republican Party Presidential Primary (August 1, 2019) :
Pres. Donald Trump -- 74%
Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake -- 9%
Fmr. Rep. Joe Walsh -- 5%
Undecided/Others -- 12%


Opinion Polling in the 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Primary (August 1, 2019) :
Sen. Bernie Sanders -- 17%
Sen. Elizabeth Warren -- 12%
Fmr. Vice Pres. Joe Biden -- 11%
Sen. Cory Booker -- 4%
Mr. Tom Steyer -- 4%
Mr. Howard Schultz -- 4%
Sen. Sherrod Brown -- 4%
Gov. Andrew Cuomo -- 3%
Mr. Michael Avenatti -- 3%
Fmr. A.G. Eric Holder -- 2%
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 2%
Gov. Jay Inslee -- 2%
Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
Mr. Andrew Yang -- 2%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar -- 1%
Fmr. Gov. Deval Patrick -- 1%
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 1%
Fmr. Gov. Martin O’Malley -- 1%
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 1%
Gov. Steve Bullock -- 1%
May. Eric Garcetti -- 1%
Sen. Michael Bennet -- 1%
Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper - 1%
Fmr. Rep. John Delaney -- 1%
Ms. Marianne Williamson -- 0%
Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel -- 0%
Undecided/Others -- 16%

[Edgeofnight]

I have been severely ill with food poisoning the past few days and only just got out of the hospital yesterday. This effort to reboot the reboot of the original timeline is not finished, but will be pushed back a bit. Bumping this thread for now.

[Edgeofnight]

Fall 2019

The horse race marched on into the fall, but not all horses kept marching. August itself saw the end of seven presidential campaigns; Inslee, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Gillibrand, Avenatti, Garcetti, and O’Malley all ended their campaigns in just a three week span. The reasons for each of these range wildly - Hickenlooper ended his campaign to pursue a Senate Showdown with Cory Gardner, O’Malley had entered the race to reclaim the Baltimore Mayor’s office, and Inslee was seeking re-election. Gillibrand, once seen as a promising rising star, had failed to catch fire, and her campaign ended unceremoniously with an endorsement of Senator Warren. Avenatti, bared again from the debates, and with increasing legal scrutiny, ended his campaign to “spend more time with family and friends,” but the decision likely had more to do with a pending court date.

   But because the Democratic Party is an absolute mess, there remains one more candidate to enter the race: Michael Bloomberg. The professional grifter entered the race in similar fashion to Cuomo and Holder: after declining to be a candidate early in the primary season, he had a sudden and inexplicable change of heart. Bloomberg’s late entry in the race meant that he had a lot of ground to make up, and his strategy to do this was to take a page from Steyer and Schultz playbook and spend as much of his riches as he could as fast as he could. The main difference in their executions of this strategy is that Bloomberg has far more money and so can do this in a much deeper, more expensive way. His late entry also kept him out of the next round of debates, but it didn’t seem to bother him.

   The higher qualifying standards for the debate did little to raise the standards of debate on the DNC stage. If anything, they worsened the overall quality, as the DNC shoved all 12 qualifying candidates onto the same stage. There was little of substance at all in the debate, and it would be hard to brand any one candidate a winner, though the status quo certainly benefited the top three candidates more than the others.

   At this point, Sherrod Brown’s Iowa strategy was finally beginning to pay off. The strategy was one tried by a number of candidates in the past - camp out in Iowa, hope to win the state big, and turn that into enough momentum to capture the nomination. But to Brown’s credit, it seems to be working. The most recent Iowa Polling has the candidate with a 5 point lead, and the press coverage from this lead is causing a noticeable uptake in his nationwide polling numbers.
   But, while Fall shed fortune on one campaign, it had not yet claimed all of its victims yet. The September withdrawals of Castro and Harris were unsurprising. Like Gillibrand, both were rising stars that failed to catch steam, and both were toiling in the middle of the pack before they ended their campaigns. Harris in particular had seen her campaign collapse financially in the final few weeks of her bid, and her withdrawal left her campaign in heavy amounts of debt.

What was surprising was a double-barreled news day that ended two different Presidential campaigns. First, early in the morning, Howard Schultz surprisingly ended his campaign. In his withdrawal video, Schultz cited “significant policy disagreements” with Democratic leadership. Upon ending his campaign, Schutlz unenrolled from the Democratic Party and re-registered as an independent.  He also was, totally unrelated to anything else, brought on to chair a pro-Kasich superPAC.

But Schultz's withdrawal was drowned out just a few hours later when bombshell allegations were revealed against Governor Cuomo. What started as allegations of inappropriate touching by one former aid quickly sprawled into nearly a dozen different women coming forward to accuse the New York Governor of sexual misconduct. While Cuomo would remain defiant in calls to end his campaign and resign, it would take over a week for him to even respond to the allegations, and then another two weeks before he ended his campaign. Although his time as Governor was also limited, it will be quite some time before there’s any movement on that front.
In this time, Deval Patrick and John Delaney also ended their campaigns, although no one really seemed to care.

The next Democratic Debate would be in October, after Cuomo ended his campaign. The remaining 9 major candidates all performed about as expected. Biden floundered, Sanders grumpily answered questions, Brown emphasized his working class support, Warren touted her platform, etc.  This time mostly solidified the strategies of each candidate. Biden, Warren, Sanders, Bloomberg and Steyer ran nationwide campaigns, while Brown, Klobuchar, and Booker each focused on Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina respectively, and Yang and Bennet were sorta just there for the ride. However, cracks even in this dynamic where beginning to show. Biden was struggling to keep up with the grassroots support of Sanders and Warren, and the massive pockets of Bloomberg and Steyer. Advisors to Biden wanted him to shift his focus to South Carolina, with hopes of locking that state down. At this point though, the former Vice President chose to ignore them, and instead move forward with a nationwide strategy.

Down-ballot, the 2019 elections where reaching their apex point. In Louisiana, a stronger-than-expected third party showing was not enough to upend anything major in that race, and Rep. Abraham and Gov. Bel Edwards both moved forward to the general election. In Mississippi, Reeves barely beat back his more conservative primary opponents, and seemed to be in a weakened state for the general election. That race, however, was complicated by Mississippi's archaic election rules, which was set to introduce yet another election-law-centered legal battle. In Kentucky, where the nominees had been set over the summer, a state-wide teacher’s strike galvanized Democrats in the state. While Beshear desperately avoided being associated with any of the Democratic Presidential candidates, the strikes undoubtedly fired up the Democratic base, and attracted the attention of all of the Presidential candidates. Bevin attempted to use the opportunity to nationalize the race, trying to tie Beshear to the striking teachers and then the striking teachers to Sanders and Warren. The strategy seemed somewhat effective, and the race further narrowed in the weeks before the election.
For the 2020 elections, the battle strategy for both sides took form, but Republicans still struggled with candidate recruitment. In Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia, the Republican’s first and second choices all declined to run. In Minnesota, Republican’s rallied around Jim Hagedorn, a failed congressional candidate who entered the race at Trump’s urging. In New Hampshire, Republicans had a heavily contested primary, consisting of mostly C Tier candidates. And in Virginia, while Former Rep. Scott Taylor seemed poised to become the Republican frontrunner, he pulled out of the race to seek his old House Seat instead. Like in New Hampshire, this decision led to a crowded primary, although Oliver North’s decision to form an exploratory committee (again, at President Trump’s urging) may lead to its eventual clearing.

On the Democratic side, The DSCC’s recruitment efforts were beginning to bear fruit. DSCC-backed challengers had effectively locked down the nominations in four target states, and were leading in three others.  Most significantly, the DSCC formally threw its weight behind Ossoff in the Georgia Senate race, giving the activist a sizable boost in the very tight primary race. In Iowa, Democrats were able to recruit Lt. Governor Rita Hart to challenge Senator Joni Ernst, giving them a fighting chance against the first term incumbent.  Texas, however, remained a frustration for the Democratic Party. Despite O’Rourke’s upset victory in 2018, no prominent Texas Democrats had stepped forward to challenge Cornyn. The DSCC threw its weight behind Michael Cooper, a pastor who made a strong run at Lt. Governor in 2018, but Pastor’s campaign had still been struggling to get his name out there, with only 36% of polled Texans having any opinion on the candidate. There was hope that Julian Castro, in ending his Presidential campaign, would make a run for Senate, but instead he accepted a position as Deputy Chair of the DNC, effectively shutting the door on a bid.  
In the lower chamber, House Democrats saw much of the same advantages as their Senate counterparts. House Democrats outraised Republicans by almost a 3-1 margin, and led in the generic ballot, 54%-39%.  Despite this, many Democrats felt anxiety about the House.To them, they saw the 2018 elections as a sort of “over-correction” in response to Trump’s presidency, and feared that American voters would “tone down” the Democratic House Majority. These fears seemed mostly unfounded for the moment. Aside from the aforementioned fundraising and polling advantages, Democrats had a clear incumbency and recruitment advantage. As of November 1, 2019, only 7 Democrats had announced their intentions to retire, while 24 Republicans had already announced their retirement. Across 435 House districts, Democrats had recruited challengers in all but six of them, whereas Republicans had yet to field a challenge against 30 different House Democrats. Additionally the quantity and quality of challengers clearly favored the Democrats. In the 80 or so competitive House Districts, the DSCC had recruited their top-tier choice candidate in 60 districts, while the NRCC got their first choice candidate in only 25 of those districts.

   Back home in DC, the Senate impeachment trial continued to dominate headlines. Now in the Senate, the trial brought a host of new challenges. A number of witnesses, mostly White House staff, outright refused to testify, despite Subpoenas compelling their apprecence. Congressional Democrats then had to make the decision whether to press the issue, and their decision ultimately was to drop the issue. The testimony of six witnesses was not worth delaying the trial any further, or so the Impeachment Managers reasoned. However, Democrats would have to make this decision a second time, when the Trump administration sought to block the testimony of three witnesses; former Special Counsel Muller and two of his staff. The administration sought to sequester the testimony on the basis that it may pose national security risks should it be made public. The move, while expected, still frustrated Congressional Leadership. Ultimately, Mueller would not testify. Rather than force the issue, Congressional Democrats instead invited Mueller to a closed-door briefing to discuss his findings, rather than have him testify publicly. This closed-door hearing, however, would be scheduled for after the impeachment vote, meaning that it was effectively pointless.

These two decisions ultimately meant that the impeachment trial proceeded much as the pre-impeachment hearings. Little was introduced in terms of new information, and ultimately the trial ran more as a formality than anything. What was more important was the behind-the-scenes jockeying that occurred for votes. Democrats accepted going into the trial that conviction was a longshot, but still the hope remained that an upset would happen. To this end, Democrats pushed for a secret ballot, hoping to convince their Republican colleagues that they could vote against President Trump without fear of retaliation. However, this push would be killed by red-state Democrats, namely Joe Donnelly (IN), Joe Manchin (WV), Phil Bredesen (TN), Claire McCaskill (MO) and Krysten Sinema (AZ). These six each insisted that the vote on impeachment be public, so that American voters could be aware of where each Senator stands. With that push, when it came time for the final vote, Democrats were hoping for a 55-45 decision, targeting Mitt Romney, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski for potential Republican turncoats. However, Democrats would fall far short of that goal. In the end, only Romney and Murkowski would vote for any article of impeachment, while Democrats lost votes in their own caucus. Article 1 (Obstruction of Justice) failed 46-51-3, with Manchin, Bredesen, and Donnelly voting against it, and O’Rourke, McCaskill, and Nelson voting “present.” Article 2 (Obstruction of Justice), the vote was split 51-49, with Bredesen and Manchin voting against and Romney voting for impeachment, still falling far short of the 67 votes needed to convict. The last article (Abuse of Power) failed as well, this time 53-37, with Bredesen again voting against conviction, and Murkwoski and Romney joining the remaining Democrats in voting for impeachment.
The result was celebrated as a resounding victory for the President and his allies. A bipartisan acquittal was exactly what the embattled incumbent could hope for, and he received it on all three articles. Democrats also tried to spin it as a moral victory, with two articles receiving majority votes. Behind the scenes, however, both President Trump and Democrats both sought to punish the turncoats who voted against their parties. However, these punishments would have to wait, as none of the Senators who voted against their own parties were up for re-election in 2020.

   In other DC news, a whistleblower complaint was making the rounds both on the Hill and in the press. The complaint alleged that President Trump was using the powers of the oval office to gather support for reelection from foreign governments. This complaint, however, would be drowned out in the press by news of impeachment or the horse race of the Presidential election, at least for now. The House would form a select committee to investigate the allegations, but they had yet to take any substantial steps towards this process. In the Senate, there was a moratorium on advancing Trump nominees until after the impeachment trial. With Trump acquitted in early October, this process would begin, with the Judiciary Committee holding hearings for Hawley and Whitaker and Health, Education and Labor hearing Messer’s nomination. Democrats put up a staunch challenge to Hawley and Whitaker’s nomination, Hawley for his lack of experience and “unwavering loyalty to the President’s agenda” and Whitaker for his role in the dismissal of Special Counsel Mueller. Hawley, however, would be able to move through the narrowly divided Judiciary committee, with cross-party support from Alabama Senator Doug Jones. Whitaker, however, would not be as fortunate, and his nomination died in the Judiciary Committee. Messer’s nomination, meanwhile, was comparatively less controversial. Though a number of Democrats, particularly those still seeking the White House, raised a fuss about his credentials, Messer was still able to pass through the Committee and move on to the full Senate. Trump also put forward his nominees for Homeland Security and Agriculture, shifting Energy Secretary Rick Perry into the Homeland Security role, and nominating the controversial former Congressman Tim Huelskamp from Kansas for the Agriculture role. The shift of Perry to Homeland Security also meant that Trump was beginning to vet new appointments for the energy post.
 
   Outside of DC, two Governors from different parties were under heat. Ricketts in Nebraska faced renewed calls for his resignation when Senator Sasse criticized the Governor’s comments. The move foreshadowed a coming leadership battle within the Nebraska GOP, one that would be kickstarted when former state legislator and Trump ally Beau McCoy launched a primary challenge against Sasse. The McCoy campaign mostly was running on a platform of criticizing Sasse for his lukewarm support of Trump.

   Meanwhile, in New York, Governor Cuomo’s allegations continued to be a thorn in his side. As an impeachment movement grew in the legislature, criminal investigations where opened by both the New York Attorney General and the New York District Attorney. Cuomo played these allegations off as a political hit, sponsored by political rivals. Still, with approval ratings bottoming out at 26%, the writing was on the wall.

   With only 3 months before the first Presidential primaries, the stage was set for the most painful presidential election of a generation.


Opinion Polling in the 2020 Republican Party Presidential Primary (November 1, 2019):
Opinion Polling in the 2020 Republican Party Primary:
Pres. Donald Trump -- 72% (-2%)
Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake -- 11% (+3%)
Fmr. Rep. Joe Walsh -- 4% (-1%)
Undecided/Others -- 13% (+1%)


Opinion Polling in the 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Primary (November 1, 2019):
Sen. Bernie Sanders -- 20% (+3%)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren -- 14% (+2%)
Fmr. Vice Pres. Joe Biden -- 10% (-1%)
Fmr. May. Michael Bloomberg - 9%
Sen. Sherrod Brown -- 6% (+2%)
Mr. Tom Steyer -- 6% (+2%)
Sen. Cory Booker -- 4% (--)
Fmr. A.G. Eric Holder -- 4% (+2%)
Mr. Andrew Yang -- 3% (+1%)
Sen. Amy Klobuchar -- 2% (+1%)
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 1%
Gov. Steve Bullock -- 1%
Sen. Michael Bennet -- 1%
Ms. Marianne Williamson -- 0%
Undecided/Others -- 19% (+3%)

Head to Head Democratic Primary Polling (Nov. 1, 2019):

Bernie Sanders - 41%
Elizabeth Warren - 37%
Undecided - 22%

Bernie Sanders - 42%
Joe Biden - 39%
Undecided - 19%

Bernie Sanders - 45%
Michael Bloomberg - 35%
Undecided - 20%

Bernie Sanders - 40%
Sherrod Brown - 37%

Joe Biden - 40%
Elizabeth Warren - 40%
Undecided - 20%

Joe Biden - 40%
Michael Bloomberg - 38%
Undecided - 22%

Joe Biden - 41%
Sherrod Brown -39%
Undecided - 20%

Elizabeth Warren - 42%
Michael Bloomberg - 37%
Undecided - 21%

Elizabeth Warren - 41%
Sherrod Brown - 41%
Undecided - 18%

Sherrod Brown - 45%
Michael Bloomberg - 38%
Undecided - 17%





Head to Head General Election Polls, Nationwide (Nov. 1, 2019):

Bernie Sanders - 46%
Donald Trump* - 42%
Undecided - 12%


Elizabeth Warren - 45%
Donald Trump* - 41%
Undecided - 14%

Joe Biden - 47%
Donald Trump* - 43%
Undecided - 10%

Michael Bloomberg - 44%
Donald Trump* - 44%
Undecided - 12%

Sherrod Brown - 46%
Donald Trump* - 40%
Undecided - 14%

[Edgeofnight]

Endorsements: November 1, 2019
New Endorsement's in Bold

Former Vice President Joe Biden:
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
Sen. Thomas R. Carper (D-DE)
Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE)
Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA)
Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL)
Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA)
Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA)
Rep. Dwight Evans (D-PA)
Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE)
Rep. Thomas Suzzoi (D-NY)
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA)
Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-LA)
Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA)
Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA)
Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-SC)
Rep. Carylon Maloney (D-NY)
Gov. John Carney (D-DE)
2020 Candidate and Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
2020 Candidate and May. Eric Garcetti  (D-CA)
Fmr. Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA)
2020 Candidate and Fmr. Rep John Delaney (D-MD)

Senator Bernie Sanders
Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT)
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT)
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA)
Rep. Mark Takano (D-CA)
Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ)
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH)
Fmr. Senator Donald Riegle (D-MI)
Fmr. Shadow Senator Jesse Jackson (D-DC)
Fmr. Governor Jesse Ventura (I-MN)
Fmr. Commissioner Aníbal Acevedo Vilá (PPD-PR)
2020 Candidate and Former May. Bill De Blasio (D-NY)

Senator Elizabeth Warren
Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA)
2020 Candidate and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-MA)
Rep. Lori Trahan (D-MA)
Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA)
Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-CA)
Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA)
Rep. Nanette Barragán (D-CA)
Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA)
Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX)
Fmr. Gov. Mike Dukakis (D-MA)
Mayor Marty Walsh (D-MA)
2020 Candidate and Fmr. HUD Sec. Julian Castro (D-TX)

Senator Cory Booker
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ)
Rep. Donald Norcross (D-NJ)
Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ)
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ)
Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ)
Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ)
Rep. Albio Sires (D-NJ)
Rep. Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D-NJ)
Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-NJ)
Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ)
Rep. Bonnie Watson-Coleman (D-NJ)
Rep. Barbra Lee (D-CA)

Senator Amy Klobuchar
Fmr. Vice President Walter Mondale (D-MN)
Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN)
Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN)
Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-CA)
Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN)
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN)
Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN)
Rep. Bett McCollum (D-MN)
Fmr. Gov Roy Barnes (D-GA)

Representative Tulsi Gabbard
Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson (L-NM)

Mr. Andrew Yang
Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA)

Mr. Tom Steyer
None Notable

Senator Sherrod Brown:
Gov. Richard Cordray (D-OH)
Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN)
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
Rep. Dan Feehan (D-MN)
Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-OH)
Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH)
2020 Candidate and Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH)
May. Pete Buttigeg (D-IN)
2020 Candidate and Fmr. Gov. Martin O’Malley (D-MD)

Senator Michael Bennet:
Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME)
Fmr. Sen. Gary Hart (D-CO)
2020 Candidate and Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO)
May. Michael Hancock (D-CO)

Governor Steve Bullock:
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT)
Fmr. Gov. Elliot Spitzer (D-NY)

Fmr. Attorney General Eric Holder
Rep. Juan Vargas (D-CA)
Rep. Julia Brownley (D-CA)
Rep. David Trone (D-MD)
2020 Candidate and Fmr. Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA)
Fmr. Gov. Jay Nixon (D-MO)
Fmr. Gov. Jim Folsom Jr. (D-AL)

Fmr. Mayor Michael Bloomberg
Rep. Bobby Rush (D-IL)
Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL)
Gov. Gina Raimondo (D-RI)
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA)
May. London Breed (D-CA)
May. Muriel Bowser (D-DC)
May. Stephen K. Benjamin (D-SC)
May. Slyvester Turner (D-TX)
Fmr. Mayor Michael Nutter (D-PA)

Not Yet Endorsing:
2020 Democratic Candidate Michael Avenatti (D-NY)
2020 Candidate and Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)
2020 Candidate and Representative Eric Swalwell (D-CA)
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA)
Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC)
Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH)
Rep. Annie Kuster (D-NH)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH)
Sen. Jeanne Sheheen (D-NH)
Sen. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX)
Rep. Anthony Brown (D-MD)
Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX)
Rep. Vincente Gonzalez (D-TX)

[deluxedriver]

Why did Pete not run in this scenario??

[Edgeofnight]

Why did Pete not run in this scenario??

The meta reason is that Pete doesn't run because he doesn't - the original timeline this is based on was written in 2018/2019, before he declared his campaign. Most people didn't consider him a serious contender at this point.

In-universe, he was a deputy chair of the DNC, and is now running for Congress in IN-02.

[Edgeofnight]

As a house keeping Point, and since the Cabinet is a focus in the upcoming months of the timeline, several resignations that happened OTL are not covered in this timeline, namely Ryan Zink as Interior, Nikki Haley as UN Ambassador, and Alex Acosta as Labor. Each of these are replaced by the same people that replaced them OTL.

Trump's Current Cabinet:

• State - Mike Pompeo
• Treasury - Justin Muzinich (acting)
• Defense - Mark Esper
• Attorney General - Jeffery Rosen (acting)/Josh Hawley (nominee)
• Interior - David Bernhardt
• Agriculutre - Stephen Censky (acting)
• Commerce - Wilbur Ross
• Labor - Eugene Scalia
• Health and Human Services - Alex Azar
• Housing and Urban Development - Ben Carson
• Transportation - Elanie Chao
• Energy - Rick Perry
• Education - Mick Zais (acting) / Luke Messer (nominee)
• Veteran's Affairs - Robert Wilke
• Homeland Security - David Pekoske (acting)
• Chief of Staff - Kellyann Conway
• Ambassador to the United Nations - Kelly Craft

[deluxedriver]

In-universe, he was a deputy chair of the DNC, and is now running for Congress in IN-02.

So he's more of a midwestern politician and not fully on the national stage.