What is the Democrats' absolute ceiling on their best possible night?

[Ferguson97]

^

[YE]

58 all of which are quasi-competitive right now. Core 4 + IA, GAx2, SC, MT, KS, AK, TX.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I agree, 58.  Even on their best night I still don't think they can win KY, MS or AL.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

58 all of which are quasi-competitive right now. Core 4 + IA, GAx2, SC, MT, KS, AK, TX.

This, but on the absolute best night I'd toss in the seats where they can still assemble a winning federal coalition but have  a <5% chance (so safe R but not intractably so): AL (with Jones as the incumbent), KY and MS.

I'd also add the LA runoff in this scenario not because they could lead on election night (they wouldn't no matter what) but on the off-chance that Trump blasts GOP Senators after the election and it manages to tank Cassidy in the runoff.

[MT Treasurer]

Hold AL and MI.
Flip CO, AZ, NC, ME, IA, KS, SC, AK, GA-R, GA-S, MT, TX, MS, LA (runoff).

61D, 39D. Will this happen? No, it’s just their absolute ceiling. You could make a case for adding KY to the list.

[Pericles]

I agree, 58 Senate seats. I'll go further and do the presidency, House and governorships too.

Probably this-

There are probably a few more House seats that are not absolutely safe Republican, but then the overall number gets way too high.

Maybe WV is Safe R though, I considered NH but Sununu's numbers are so high.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Too lazy to make a House map but prolly a little over 250 house seats

[Roll Roons]

Senate:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/Mw99Pa. Get a supermajority by holding all of their seats, including Alabama, and picking up 13.

House:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/L5VXZOq. Hold all of their seats, and pick up nearly 40.

Biden probably gets close to 450 electoral votes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Senate:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/Mw99Pa. Get a supermajority by holding all of their seats, including Alabama, and picking up 13.

House:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/L5VXZOq. Hold all of their seats, and pick up nearly 40.

Biden probably gets close to 450 electoral votes.

What went down in NY-18? SC-2 and TX-3 prolly both flip on D's best night

[Roll Roons]

Senate:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/Mw99Pa. Get a supermajority by holding all of their seats, including Alabama, and picking up 13.

House:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/L5VXZOq. Hold all of their seats, and pick up nearly 40.

Biden probably gets close to 450 electoral votes.

What went down in NY-18? SC-2 and TX-3 prolly both flip on D's best night

NY-18 and TX-03 were accidents. And I'm not sure about SC-02.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Senate:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/Mw99Pa. Get a supermajority by holding all of their seats, including Alabama, and picking up 13.

House:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/L5VXZOq. Hold all of their seats, and pick up nearly 40.

Biden probably gets close to 450 electoral votes.

What went down in NY-18? SC-2 and TX-3 prolly both flip on D's best night

NY-18 and TX-03 were accidents. And I'm not sure about SC-02.

If you're not sure, you should give the party who's winning the mega landslide the benefit of the doubt

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn is only up by 3 pts he is gonna lose

[The Legend]

58 sounds right.

[Xing]

I’d say that if we’re talking about absolute ceilings, maybe you could make an argument for 59 seats (MS plus the competitive ones), but realistically, I’d be stunned if they ended up with more than 54 or possibly 55.

[TarHeelDem]

There are probably a few more House seats that are not absolutely safe Republican, but then the overall number gets way too high.

NC-11 is definitely competitive.

[Hope For A New Era]

Absolute ceiling?

428 electoral votes (413 + SC + AK + MT)

58 Senate seats (lose AL, win CO AZ NC ME IA MT GA-R GA-S SC KS AK TX)

3 governorships in MT, MO, and WV, for 27 total

Too lazy to do a House map right now, but it would involve holding all of the surprise 2018 gains + Collin Peterson's district, flipping places that came close in 2018 like KS-02 (seriously, Kansas geography is incredibly favorable to Democrats), winning places like CO-03 and NC-11 that have weakened Republican candidates, winning districts that got a bit left-behind or forgotten-about in 2018 like NE-02, and flipping MT-AL and AK-AL to get 26 state delegations as a safeguard against a now-very-unlikely 269-269 scenario.

[Stuart98]

This question needs to define "best possible night" (eg, what's the PV margin in the presidential race?). There's a clear separation between the 58th seat and the 59th seat, but I don't think there's as much separation between the Tier 4 races (MS,AL,KY) and the Tier 5 races (LA,TN,SD) as people make there out to be.

[😥]

[Alcibiades]

[Orser67]

Depends on how crazy you want to get with the ceiling, but with less than three weeks to go, I think the ceiling and floor are a lot more constrained than they were earlier in the cycle.

So I'll say 58 Senate seats and 270 House seats. But I'd be ecstatic if we won 52/250.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY will go D before MS, MS which is safe R

[MillennialModerate]

Some of these posts are a little extreme. Best possible scenario?

Senate +8
AZ, ME, CO, IA, SC, GA, MT, GAS, KS (lose AL)

House +20
260-175

Presidency:
390-410EV

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Some of these posts are a little extreme. Best possible scenario?

Senate +8
AZ, ME, CO, IA, SC, GA, MT, GAS, KS (lose AL)

House +20
260-175

Presidency:
390-410EV

Do you think Dan Sullivan is a lock for reelection in Alaska?