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October 26, 2020, 08:08:04 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  The Hill/Harris: Tie in FL, Biden +5 in PA, +11 in MI
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Author Topic: The Hill/Harris: Tie in FL, Biden +5 in PA, +11 in MI  (Read 1114 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 16, 2020, 01:22:05 PM »

Oct. 12-15.

FL:

48-48 Biden/Trump

PA:

51-46 Biden/Trump

MI:

54-43 Biden/Trump

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/521417-exclusive-poll-trump-and-biden-deadlocked-in-florida
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2020, 01:24:03 PM »

Muh Biden 1+ in MI Trafalgar poll tho
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2020, 01:24:28 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2020, 01:31:24 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Conducted by HarrisX
October 12-15

FL
965 likely voters

Biden 48%
Trump 48%
Unsure 4%

MI
1289 likely voters

Biden 54%
Trump 43%

PA
992 likely voters

Biden 51%
Trump 46%
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2020, 01:25:06 PM »

If Trump pulls out in PA, it's over. And to top it off, it would be absolutely humiliating for Biden to lose his birth state. Icing on the cake if Trump flips Lackawanna too.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2020, 01:26:54 PM »

If Trump pulls out in PA, it's over. And to top it off, it would be absolutely humiliating for Biden to lose his birth state.

This is what they rely on for this cycle, ifís and muah 2016
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2020, 01:29:48 PM »

Given Trump doing worse with the military and seniors the gap between Michigan and Florida will not be this big.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2020, 01:30:29 PM »

If Trump pulls out in PA, it's over. And to top it off, it would be absolutely humiliating for Biden to lose his birth state. Icing on the cake if Trump flips Lackawanna too.

Itís not over.

If Biden wins AZ and one of ME-02 or NE-02, he wins.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2020, 01:31:36 PM »

I've added details to my above post from the PA release: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/521421-biden-holds-five-point-lead-over-trump-in-pennsylvania-poll

MI release: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/521415-biden-holds-9-point-lead-over-in-michigan-poll
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republican1993
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2020, 01:32:11 PM »

yay go trump in fl!
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mijan
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2020, 01:32:57 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2020, 01:45:21 PM by mijan »

If Trump pulls out in PA, it's over. And to top it off, it would be absolutely humiliating for Biden to lose his birth state.
The Hill/Harris is one of the better poll for Trump.  So its a bad news for Trump that Biden is already over 50 in this poll.  Romney and Trump both lost their home states by 20. I think it was also very shameful for GOP.

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darthpi
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2020, 01:41:12 PM »

Seems like an overly exaggerated distribution across the states, but whatever. Into the average.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2020, 01:42:42 PM »

If Trump pulls out in PA, it's over. And to top it off, it would be absolutely humiliating for Biden to lose his birth state. Icing on the cake if Trump flips Lackawanna too.

Almost as humiliating as Trump getting blown out in his home state of New York, especially in the city where he spent most of his life. I mean, he got the lowest percentage of the vote for a Republican literally in NYC history.

Sad!
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ηєω Éяσηтιєя
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2020, 01:43:26 PM »

If Trump pulls out in PA, it's over. And to top it off, it would be absolutely humiliating for Biden to lose his birth state. Icing on the cake if Trump flips Lackawanna too.
Keep dreaming.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2020, 01:47:02 PM »

Given their Republican lean, pretty good polls for Biden.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2020, 01:47:36 PM »

This seems like too big of a range; I have a hard time seeing MI go to Biden by double digits while FL is dead even
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The scissors of false economy
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2020, 01:49:35 PM »

These margins are all believable in themselves, but it's weird to see them all in the same poll. Whatever, I'm not too concerned.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2020, 01:50:55 PM »

Good for Trump!

(funny how some hacks here will say that this IS good for Trump, and relative to his other polls, losing by 5 in a must win state is the best poll he has!)
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forza nocta
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2020, 01:52:29 PM »

This seems like too big of a range; I have a hard time seeing MI go to Biden by double digits while FL is dead even

That's almost exactly how both states went in 2012
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2020, 01:53:22 PM »

This seems like too big of a range; I have a hard time seeing MI go to Biden by double digits while FL is dead even

That's almost exactly how both states went in 2012

True, true. Still; the gap between MI and PA doesnít seem right
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President Johnson
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2020, 01:55:25 PM »

At this point, it looks like Michigan will come back to 2012 levels.

While Florida is not needed for a Biden victory, it would be good to drive up the electoral count. Trump must be destroyed completely.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2020, 02:02:16 PM »

This seems like too big of a range; I have a hard time seeing MI go to Biden by double digits while FL is dead even

That's almost exactly how both states went in 2012

True, true. Still; the gap between MI and PA doesnít seem right

Thats almost the same gap MI and PA had in 2012 too lol ik things have changed since then but it could happen
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VARepublican
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2020, 02:03:10 PM »

Yeah no. MI isnít 11 points to the left of FL lol.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2020, 02:41:34 PM »

I could definitely see MI as a 8-10 point race while FL is dead even. Itís happened plenty of times before. PA at +5 seems reasonable as well. Obviously the overall results are a little odd but considering they all have a MOE seems like a pretty consistent Biden lead of similar proportions to 2012.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2020, 02:53:10 PM »

If Trump pulls out in PA, it's over. And to top it off, it would be absolutely humiliating for Biden to lose his birth state. Icing on the cake if Trump flips Lackawanna too.

You're lucky this site is going to crash on Election Night so you can meltdown in private
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2020, 03:42:20 PM »

New Poll: Michigan President by Other Source on 2020-10-15

Summary: D: 54%, R: 43%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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