NYT/Siena - AK: Trump +6

[redjohn]

Both Trump and Biden will outperform the 2016 performances. Jorgensen probably won't end up with 8%; Johnson only got 5.88% in a year with moderately high third-party voting.

I could see a final result like this:

Trump 53%
Biden 42%
Jorgensen 5%

[redjohn]

Both Trump and Biden will outperform the 2016 performances. Jorgensen probably won't end up with 8%; Johnson only got 5.88% in a year with moderately high third-party voting.

I could see a final result like this:

Trump 53%
Biden 42%
Jorgensen 5%

I think it’ll be closer. Trump +5 if I had to guess.

Possibly, but only possible with a very low third party vote. Trump will get 50%+ here.

[redjohn]

Unfortunately, the main reason Trump will win AK is that approval rating. 47/47, and you can guarantee most of the Jorgensen votes come from that 47% disapproval number. Thankfully we don't have that many states with such a high preference for third-party candidates; the uncertainty from their high polling numbers in 2016 was ridiculous. We only see that in a few states now, most which aren't battlegrounds.

[redjohn]

The more I look at the cross tabs of this poll, the better it looks for Biden. LeanvR.

What part looks good for him? The very high # of undecideds+third-party support among younger voters is not good for Biden. He's doing well with women, but I don't think it'll be enough to make the state competitive on election day.