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October 24, 2020, 01:43:09 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  NYT/Siena - AK: Trump +6
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Author Topic: NYT/Siena - AK: Trump +6  (Read 1335 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« on: October 16, 2020, 12:01:14 PM »
« edited: October 16, 2020, 12:34:34 PM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »



*EDIT:  (Thank you, GM) -- Cohn points out that these topline numbers are *rounded*.  The actual margin is closer to Trump +5. 



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Asta
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2020, 12:02:06 PM »

Decent poll for Biden but I am guessing Trump wins by double digit in the end.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2020, 12:02:33 PM »

Likely R -> Lean R for President

Gross getting a D label on the ballot is going to hurt.
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republican1993
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2020, 12:02:48 PM »

lol the undecideds
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2020, 12:02:52 PM »

Sad about Grossís numbers in AK.
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The Hunt for the Red October Surprises
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2020, 12:03:02 PM »

Not sure how much Stock to put into those third party numbers. They could break 5%, but Iím guessing less.
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The scissors of false economy
Nathan
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2020, 12:05:07 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2020, 12:10:43 PM by The scissors of false economy »

Consistent with Trump struggling among non-metropolitan seculars.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2020, 12:05:25 PM »


Considering (a) how rarely this state is polled, (b) how difficult it is to poll there, and (c) Alaska's unusual affinity for third-party candidates, 8% undecided isn't all that outrageous.  
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2020, 12:05:33 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2020, 12:10:26 PM by Roll Roons »

Get ready for lots of bedwetting about a state that:
1. Is known for highly volatile and unpredictable politics that are not necessarily indicative of trends in the Lower 48.
2. If anything, is a bonus when it comes to the Senate. A lot of seats (CO, AZ, ME, NC, IA, MT, GA regular, GA special, maybe SC and KS) would likely flip first.
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2020, 12:05:45 PM »

Wow, Trump approval 47/47

Embarrassing
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2020, 12:06:24 PM »

Anchorage is +9 for Biden proving the urban/suburban vs rural divide is even going to Alaska.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2020, 12:07:02 PM »

I was close



Im guessing this ends up like the 2012 Alaska #s, something like 55-40 Trump
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2020, 12:07:11 PM »

Crosstabs: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ak100920-crosstabs1/722c27f1f660cf21/full.pdf
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2020, 12:08:55 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2020, 12:24:41 PM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »

Anchorage is +9 for Biden proving the urban/suburban vs rural divide is even going to Alaska.

For reference:  

2008:  McCain won Anchorage by 16 pts.  (57-41)
2012:  Romney won Anchorage by 10 pts. (53-43)
2016:  Trump won Anchorage by 5 pts. (47-42*)
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Single Issue Covid Voter
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2020, 12:10:22 PM »

Horrid poll for Biden.
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Arch
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2020, 12:10:40 PM »


!?
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2020, 12:10:55 PM »


LOL.
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swf541
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2020, 12:11:42 PM »

Don't buy Howe at 10% no other poll showed 3rd party vote as high as this
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2020, 12:14:12 PM »

October 9-14
423 likely voters
MoE: 5.7%

Trump 45%
Biden 39%
Jorgensen 8%
Someone else 1%
Not voting for President 1%
Don't know/refused 6%
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2020, 12:16:16 PM »


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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2020, 12:20:41 PM »

Good for Biden. Consistent with a 10-12 point national lead.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2020, 12:23:14 PM »




Here's my view on this thingy (as always, there's a caveat of "if accurate" -- especially since Alaska is so rarely polled):  

It basically puts to bed any chance of Alaska flipping for the Democrats at the Prez level except on the best of best nights for Biden.  In that case, Alaska would be just one of many stunning flips.  

HST, this is a quirky state.  And a fourteen-point swing from Trump +5 to Biden +9 in Anchorage is pretty flooring.  
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2020, 12:24:31 PM »

Jorgensen at 8%? Somehow I doubt she'll do better than Johnson did in 2016.

Who else is on the ballot here? Hawkins, West, whoever the Constitution Party candidate is?
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Jayde
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2020, 12:24:33 PM »

HST, this is a quirky state.  And a fourteen-point swing from Trump +5 to Biden +9 in Anchorage is pretty flooring.  

Like Nate said, Anchorage is trending as if they're a colder, darker sunbelt city Tongue
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kph14
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2020, 12:24:56 PM »


Looking at these numbers I have the feeling they had problems reaching Democratic-leaning native Alaskans. They have Trump winning non-whites 40-39.
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