NC (Emerson): TIED
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 04, 2023, 08:52:48 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  NC (Emerson): TIED
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: NC (Emerson): TIED  (Read 1678 times)
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 15, 2020, 09:02:09 PM »

Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,226
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 09:02:46 PM »

Looks about right. Good to see there are pretty much no undecideds left.
Logged
Asta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 645


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 09:06:25 PM »

Looks about right. Good to see there are pretty much no undecideds left.

Pretty sure that Emerson usually has far fewer undecideds than the average pollster.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,031
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 09:07:00 PM »

MTurkerson
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,020


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 09:07:08 PM »

Emerson polling has been all over the place this cycle but this poll seems pretty realistic, though I still believe Biden has the slightest edge. Most polling for NC on the Presidential level shows a pretty narrow range outcomes unlike some other states, and a tied poll for Trump in NC is generally considered good for him. I'm genuinely curious to see2 things about NC this cycle; which direction polling is off, and if the state trends left.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,554
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 09:07:26 PM »

Yikes. If even Emerson canít even show a Trump lead, this is definitely Tilt D, closer to Lean.
Logged
Darthpi Ė Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 09:10:15 PM »

Into the average.
Logged
Stockdale for Veep
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 800


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 09:13:12 PM »

Respect the 101% effort.
Logged
republican1993
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 388
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 09:28:08 PM »

Yikes. If even Emerson canít even show a Trump lead, this is definitely Tilt D, closer to Lean.

ya realize the final emerson poll had clinton +3
Logged
Rafe
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,086
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 09:32:57 PM »

My question is, who does the remaining 99% of America support (if weíre going off a 200% = 100% model).
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,031
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 09:33:43 PM »

Yikes. If even Emerson canít even show a Trump lead, this is definitely Tilt D, closer to Lean.

ya realize the final emerson poll had clinton +3

Emerson has radically changed their methodology since 2016 and not for the better.
Logged
republican1993
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 388
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 09:35:36 PM »

Yikes. If even Emerson canít even show a Trump lead, this is definitely Tilt D, closer to Lean.

ya realize the final emerson poll had clinton +3

Emerson has radically changed their methodology since 2016 and not for the better.

How have they been more R leaning? In 2018, they had Nelson + 5 in Florida race, and Gilum +5 which at the time sounded right? (St.Pete Polls and Gilum + 5 too lol)
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 09:36:52 PM »

Emerson has Trump losing MI by 10 and Florida by 2.  There is no bias
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,706
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2020, 09:37:40 PM »

I want to say this looks about right since both are above 48%, but I also don't trust Emerson's methodology
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,031
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2020, 09:38:56 PM »

Emerson has Trump losing MI by 10 and Florida by 2.  There is no bias

I've called every Emerson poll regardless of outcome junk.
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,706
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2020, 09:48:25 PM »

Emerson has Trump losing MI by 10 and Florida by 2.  There is no bias

It's not bias, it's a matter of questionable data collection methods.
Logged
DaleCooper
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,946


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2020, 09:53:40 PM »

Yeah, I don't think Emerson has a predictable bias. I just don't trust them, whether I like the results or not.
Logged
Rep Jessica
Jessica
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 831
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2020, 10:06:38 PM »

Looks like Trump still can win NC. That is wonderful news for Trump! Smiley
Logged
pantsaregood
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 412
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2020, 10:08:41 PM »

Emerson has Trump losing MI by 10 and Florida by 2.  There is no bias

Emerson's issue isn't bias, it is methodology. If this poll came out as Biden+6, it would still be junk.
Logged
Rafe
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,086
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2020, 10:12:09 PM »

Looks like Trump still can win NC. That is wonderful news for Trump! Smiley

Nobody said he couldnít.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,250
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2020, 10:14:41 PM »

Yikes. If even Emerson canít even show a Trump lead, this is definitely Tilt D, closer to Lean.

Emerson isn't really R-biased. It's just wrong.
Logged
Storr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,662
Moldova, Republic of


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2020, 11:39:52 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2020, 11:46:21 PM by Storr »

You can't spell "recount" without NC.....oh, wait...
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,595


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2020, 05:09:57 AM »

With leaners:
Biden 49% (n/c, -2)
Trump 49% (-1, n/c)
Someone else 2% (not previously included)

721 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%
October 13-14
Changes with August 8-10 and September 16-18
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,343


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2020, 12:04:32 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Emerson College on 2020-10-14

Summary: D: 49%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,112
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -0.65, S: -1.57

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2020, 05:57:08 PM »

Looks like Trump still can win NC. That is wonderful news for Trump! Smiley
If trump only ďstill canĒ win NC, he is beyond helping.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 12 queries.