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October 24, 2020, 12:33:28 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  NC (Emerson): TIED
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Author Topic: NC (Emerson): TIED  (Read 936 times)
Buzz
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« on: October 15, 2020, 09:02:09 PM »

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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 09:02:46 PM »

Looks about right. Good to see there are pretty much no undecideds left.
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Asta
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 09:06:25 PM »

Looks about right. Good to see there are pretty much no undecideds left.

Pretty sure that Emerson usually has far fewer undecideds than the average pollster.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 09:07:00 PM »

MTurkerson
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 09:07:08 PM »

Emerson polling has been all over the place this cycle but this poll seems pretty realistic, though I still believe Biden has the slightest edge. Most polling for NC on the Presidential level shows a pretty narrow range outcomes unlike some other states, and a tied poll for Trump in NC is generally considered good for him. I'm genuinely curious to see2 things about NC this cycle; which direction polling is off, and if the state trends left.
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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 09:07:26 PM »

Yikes. If even Emerson canít even show a Trump lead, this is definitely Tilt D, closer to Lean.
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darthpi
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 09:10:15 PM »

Into the average.
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 09:13:12 PM »

Respect the 101% effort.
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republican1993
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 09:28:08 PM »

Yikes. If even Emerson canít even show a Trump lead, this is definitely Tilt D, closer to Lean.

ya realize the final emerson poll had clinton +3
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 09:32:57 PM »

My question is, who does the remaining 99% of America support (if weíre going off a 200% = 100% model).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 09:33:43 PM »

Yikes. If even Emerson canít even show a Trump lead, this is definitely Tilt D, closer to Lean.

ya realize the final emerson poll had clinton +3

Emerson has radically changed their methodology since 2016 and not for the better.
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republican1993
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 09:35:36 PM »

Yikes. If even Emerson canít even show a Trump lead, this is definitely Tilt D, closer to Lean.

ya realize the final emerson poll had clinton +3

Emerson has radically changed their methodology since 2016 and not for the better.

How have they been more R leaning? In 2018, they had Nelson + 5 in Florida race, and Gilum +5 which at the time sounded right? (St.Pete Polls and Gilum + 5 too lol)
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Buzz
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 09:36:52 PM »

Emerson has Trump losing MI by 10 and Florida by 2.  There is no bias
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Hammy
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2020, 09:37:40 PM »

I want to say this looks about right since both are above 48%, but I also don't trust Emerson's methodology
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2020, 09:38:56 PM »

Emerson has Trump losing MI by 10 and Florida by 2.  There is no bias

I've called every Emerson poll regardless of outcome junk.
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Hammy
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2020, 09:48:25 PM »

Emerson has Trump losing MI by 10 and Florida by 2.  There is no bias

It's not bias, it's a matter of questionable data collection methods.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2020, 09:53:40 PM »

Yeah, I don't think Emerson has a predictable bias. I just don't trust them, whether I like the results or not.
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Rep Jessica
Jessica
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2020, 10:06:38 PM »

Looks like Trump still can win NC. That is wonderful news for Trump! Smiley
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pantsaregood
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2020, 10:08:41 PM »

Emerson has Trump losing MI by 10 and Florida by 2.  There is no bias

Emerson's issue isn't bias, it is methodology. If this poll came out as Biden+6, it would still be junk.
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2020, 10:12:09 PM »

Looks like Trump still can win NC. That is wonderful news for Trump! Smiley

Nobody said he couldnít.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2020, 10:14:41 PM »

Yikes. If even Emerson canít even show a Trump lead, this is definitely Tilt D, closer to Lean.

Emerson isn't really R-biased. It's just wrong.
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Storr
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2020, 11:39:52 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2020, 11:46:21 PM by Storr »

You can't spell "recount" without NC.....oh, wait...
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2020, 05:09:57 AM »

With leaners:
Biden 49% (n/c, -2)
Trump 49% (-1, n/c)
Someone else 2% (not previously included)

721 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%
October 13-14
Changes with August 8-10 and September 16-18
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2020, 12:04:32 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Emerson College on 2020-10-14

Summary: D: 49%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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UBI man good
Liam
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2020, 05:57:08 PM »

Looks like Trump still can win NC. That is wonderful news for Trump! Smiley
If trump only ďstill canĒ win NC, he is beyond helping.
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