AK-Harstad (D): Gross +1

[ON Progressive]

Al Gross (D) 47
Dan Sullivan (R-inc) 46

https://drive.google.com/file/d/19_wiB30w2j7j9i0dSIBT4oZYAnr0oiGo/view

[libertpaulian]

Don't sleep on Al Gross.

[SevenEleven]

I told you, I told you, I told you.

Sure, it's a D internal in a difficult-to-poll state with a negligible lead. But it's going to be a bloodbath for the GOP.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol to all you who laughed at me when back on April 5th when I stated AK-Sen would be competative and everyone laughed at me. Lean -> Tilt R

[swf541]

It's a tossup, and has been a tossup for months.

More affirmation of that, Alaska is weird.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

D internal, so grain of salt applies.. Siena poll tomorrow should give us a better idea.

[Roll Roons]

D internal, so grain of salt applies.. Siena poll tomorrow should give us a better idea.

Knowing them, it'll be something like Sullivan at 43 and Gross at 41 with a bunch of undecideds.

[swf541]

D internal, so grain of salt applies.. Siena poll tomorrow should give us a better idea.

Knowing them, it'll be something like Sullivan at 43 and Gross at 41 with a bunch of undecideds.

Nah thats too high for Siena, watch them both be under 40 lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blue wave is happening, Gross and Bullock are leading, time to change your map progressive moderate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol to all you who laughed at me when back on April 5th when I stated AK-Sen would be competative and everyone laughed at me. Lean -> Tilt R

I have never doubted you, I told you I will color all the competetive races atlas red due to fact, I  underestimated Obama and Biden in 2008-2012.  Don't underestimate Biden in a Covid Environment

[ProgressiveModerate]

D internal, so grain of salt applies.. Siena poll tomorrow should give us a better idea.

I guarentee you NYT will have something ridiculous like 20% undecides, which really won't be that helpful, especially in a state like AK. My guess is the NYT poll will be Sullivan +3-5

[WD]

D internal, so grain of salt applies.. Siena poll tomorrow should give us a better idea.

Knowing them, it'll be something like Sullivan at 43 and Gross at 41 with a bunch of undecideds.

Nah thats too high for Siena, watch them both be under 40 lol

inb4 it’s 37-35

[AncestralDemocrat.]

D internal, so grain of salt applies.. Siena poll tomorrow should give us a better idea.

Knowing them, it'll be something like Sullivan at 43 and Gross at 41 with a bunch of undecideds.

lol.. it is rather frustrating that they don't push undecided's for their senate data.

[YE]

IIRC this was Obama's internal pollster from 2008/2012.

[Pericles]

Gross seems like a badass, he deserves the win.

[SevenEleven]

IIRC this was Obama's internal pollster from 2008/2012.

So they're geniuses, basically.

[brucejoel99]

D internal, so grain of salt applies.. Siena poll tomorrow should give us a better idea.

Knowing them, it'll be something like Sullivan at 43 and Gross at 41 with a bunch of undecideds.

lol.. it is rather frustrating that they don't push undecided's for their senate data.

And then say the high number of undecideds doesn't matter because you can just extrapolate the information from the 1972 presidential race.

Am I doing this right, Nate?

[KaiserDave]

Al Gross has tied but he hasn't lead. Don Young also has never lead a poll

Well, Al has one where he is ahead now!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 2-6
600 likely voters
Gross 46% (+1)
Sullivan 46% (n/c)

October 10-13
606 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Gross 47% (+1)
Sullivan 46% (n/c)

[Skye]

I was asleep when this poll was released, forgive me y'all 😔✊

[Sir Mohamed]

Definitely a sleeper race, though I believe Sullivan is somewhat favored. It's a Dem internal, though they have proven to be more accurate on average than GOP-internals. Lean R.

[Pollster]

I suspect we'll see at least a Gross +1 poll in the next 2.5 weeks

Came even sooner than I thought!

I'm very curious to see the results of the NYTimes poll, especially since Nate Cohn is apparently bragging on twitter about how good of a job they did reaching Alaska Natives. That is something we have been struggling with consistently in the AK polling we've been doing.

[wbrocks67]

I suspect we'll see at least a Gross +1 poll in the next 2.5 weeks

Came even sooner than I thought!

I'm very curious to see the results of the NYTimes poll, especially since Nate Cohn is apparently bragging on twitter about how good of a job they did reaching Alaska Natives. That is something we have been struggling with consistently in the AK polling we've been doing.

I love all of your takes. Is there any thing you can share from polling you've done recently in the senate races?

[Pollster]

I suspect we'll see at least a Gross +1 poll in the next 2.5 weeks

Came even sooner than I thought!

I'm very curious to see the results of the NYTimes poll, especially since Nate Cohn is apparently bragging on twitter about how good of a job they did reaching Alaska Natives. That is something we have been struggling with consistently in the AK polling we've been doing.

I love all of your takes. Is there any thing you can share from polling you've done recently in the senate races?

Don't sleep on Alaska.

[Badger]

D internal, so grain of salt applies.. Siena poll tomorrow should give us a better idea.

Knowing them, it'll be something like Sullivan at 43 and Gross at 41 with a bunch of undecideds.

Nah thats too high for Siena, watch them both be under 40 lol

You weren't far off!