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October 24, 2020, 12:56:36 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  Monmouth-AZ: Biden +6 (RV) | Biden +7 (HLV) | Biden +2 (LLV)
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Author Topic: Monmouth-AZ: Biden +6 (RV) | Biden +7 (HLV) | Biden +2 (LLV)  (Read 1050 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 15, 2020, 10:02:40 AM »

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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 10:03:07 AM »

Wow... Huge gap between low and high turnout
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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 10:03:34 AM »

Biden is at exactly 50 in nearly all Arizona polls
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 10:05:15 AM »

I think it's time for Monmouth to retire their low turnout model.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 10:07:24 AM »

Low turnout models are completely useless to look at for this election especially if you have been following the news
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 10:08:38 AM »

Support for marijuana legalization is up to abound 56% as well!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 10:08:43 AM »

Continuing the trend of higher turnout now benefiting Biden.
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 10:10:26 AM »

Biden up 7 points in Maricopa.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 10:12:09 AM »

Wow itís almost as if high quality state polls are consistent with a double digit Biden lead. 🤔
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Beida
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 10:12:59 AM »

Great poll for Biden, I expect him to win AZ by anywhere from 2 to 6 points.
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Arch
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 10:20:29 AM »

Looks like an even better polling week for Biden this week than the last.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 10:23:05 AM »

Biden is at exactly 50 in nearly all Arizona polls

Does this alter your gut feeling that Arizona may be friendlier to Trump than expected, Buzz?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2020, 10:27:19 AM »

Monmouth needs to ask their registered voters how likely they are to vote on a 0-10 scale.

If they get 70%+ saying they are a 10/10 (absolutely certain), they should just release their high turnout number.

Below 60%, just their low turnout number.

If 60-70% are certain to vote, a mix of high/low.

Releasing 3 different sets this time is idiotic. They need to stop.
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Buzz
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2020, 10:33:46 AM »

Biden is at exactly 50 in nearly all Arizona polls

Does this alter your gut feeling that Arizona may be friendlier to Trump than expected, Buzz?
it does not.  I had a feeling that Monmouth wasnít going to be friendly for Trump today, hence why I made the update last night (didnít want people to think I was hack trolling).  I think Arizona will be the closest state on 11/3 and Trump will win by 0.2%.
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2020, 10:36:37 AM »

Feminist icon ACB hearings bump.

Biden is at exactly 50 in nearly all Arizona polls

Does this alter your gut feeling that Arizona may be friendlier to Trump than expected, Buzz?
it does not.  I had a feeling that Monmouth wasnít going to be friendly for Trump today, hence why I made the update last night (didnít want people to think I was hack trolling).  I think Arizona will be the closest state on 11/3 and Trump will win by 0.2%.

Legions of Sinema voters for Trump, right? Itís highly unlikely that Trump wins Arizona, especially given Republicans donít underpoll there.
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Buzz
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2020, 10:38:18 AM »

Feminist icon ACB hearings bump.

Biden is at exactly 50 in nearly all Arizona polls

Does this alter your gut feeling that Arizona may be friendlier to Trump than expected, Buzz?
it does not.  I had a feeling that Monmouth wasnít going to be friendly for Trump today, hence why I made the update last night (didnít want people to think I was hack trolling).  I think Arizona will be the closest state on 11/3 and Trump will win by 0.2%.

Legions of Sinema voters for Trump, right? Itís highly unlikely that Trump wins Arizona, especially given Republicans donít underpoll there.
McSally was not and is still not a good candidate. 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2020, 10:40:31 AM »

Support for marijuana legalization is up to abound 56% as well!

The tax increase on the rich is passing too!
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You Reap What You Sow
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2020, 10:41:33 AM »



A R I J O E N A
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2020, 10:52:07 AM »

October 11-13
502 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with September 11-15

registered voters
Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 44% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (-2)
Other candidate 1% (+1% from at 0% but with some voters)
No one 0% (no voters) (-1)
Undecided 4% (+1)

high turnout
Biden 51% (+3)
Trump 44% (-2)
Other 2% (-1)

low turnout
Biden 49% (+2)
Trump 47% (n/c)
Other 1% (-2)
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ηєω Éяσηтιєя
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2020, 11:02:19 AM »

Feminist icon ACB hearings bump.

Biden is at exactly 50 in nearly all Arizona polls

Does this alter your gut feeling that Arizona may be friendlier to Trump than expected, Buzz?
it does not.  I had a feeling that Monmouth wasnít going to be friendly for Trump today, hence why I made the update last night (didnít want people to think I was hack trolling).  I think Arizona will be the closest state on 11/3 and Trump will win by 0.2%.

Legions of Sinema voters for Trump, right? Itís highly unlikely that Trump wins Arizona, especially given Republicans donít underpoll there.
McSally was not and is still not a good candidate. 
And Trump is? Trump is a terrible fit for Arizona.

He only won by 3.5% in 2016 and by a plurality, much lower than Romney's 9% in 2012 and McCain's 8.5% in 2008.
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xavier110
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2020, 11:07:51 AM »

Biden is at exactly 50 in nearly all Arizona polls

Does this alter your gut feeling that Arizona may be friendlier to Trump than expected, Buzz?
it does not.  I had a feeling that Monmouth wasnít going to be friendly for Trump today, hence why I made the update last night (didnít want people to think I was hack trolling).  I think Arizona will be the closest state on 11/3 and Trump will win by 0.2%.

I can say with almost complete confidence that AZ will not be the closest state after all the votes are counted.

Demographically, it is terrible for Trump. A core segment of the historically GOP base here is openly hostile toward him (the Flake/McCain wealthy & educated suburbanites), and then you have a rapidly growing group of Hispanic/young voters.

If McSally couldn't win in 2018, I don't know how Trump suddenly does here.
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darthpi
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2020, 11:45:37 AM »

Pretty great poll.
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tenyasha
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2020, 11:46:03 PM »

very different to OHPI though
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2020, 04:21:02 AM »

Wow, leading even in the low turnout scenario. Impressive.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2020, 01:31:47 PM »

Wow, leading even in the low turnout scenario. Impressive.

Trump (or any republican TBF) is not winning AZ lol.
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