IA-DFP: Greenfield +4

[Xing]

While the fact that IA polling has been off the past several cycles shouldn't be ignored, I do have to say that polling over the past few months has been remarkably consistent in this race. With the exception of the very junky RABA poll, pretty much every poll has found Greenfield up by 2-5%. That's not enough of a lead to give me confidence, but Ernst does definitely need a decent polling error to win. It is true that Greenfield is just even with Biden, but even if we assume undecideds break somewhat in Ernst's favor, it seems more likely than not that she'll underperform Trump.