IA-DFP: Greenfield +4
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Author Topic: IA-DFP: Greenfield +4  (Read 1460 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 15, 2020, 08:36:10 AM »

Greenfield 47
Ernst 43

PRES: Trump 48-47

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-4/IA.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2020, 08:36:48 AM »

It also appears undecideds are breaking for Greenfield:

In Iowa, Democrat Theresa Greenfield is going up against incumbent Republican Joni Ernst. We find
that Greenfield has a four point lead over Ernst (47 percent Greenfield, 43 percent Ernst). This puts
Greenfield running five points ahead of Biden in the state. Compared to our last poll of this race in
July, where we found Greenfield with a two point lead and 11 percent of voters not sure, these results
suggest undecided voters are making up their minds in Greenfieldís favor. Libertarian Rick Stewart and
Independent Suzanne Herzog enjoy three percent support (2 percent Steward, 1 percent Herzog).
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riceowl
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2020, 08:41:20 AM »

Hum. Who are the 5% of voters who are voting for Trump but not voting for Senate?
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2020, 08:41:28 AM »

It also appears undecideds are breaking for Greenfield Greenfield gained two points (within the margin of error)
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2020, 08:43:34 AM »

Greenfield will most likely do better than Biden. IA and MT are important backup in case ME or NC go wrong, or the 51st seat, which would give me more comfort than a 50-50.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2020, 08:58:44 AM »

I hope Greenfield is using some of her money to get some conservatives to vote third party. It might make the difference.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2020, 09:08:07 AM »

Lean D takeover
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 09:09:43 AM »


Yikes a D takeover sounds scary
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2020, 10:06:33 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2020, 11:48:23 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

October 8-11
822 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with September 23-28

Greenfield 47% (+3)
Ernst 43% (+1)
Herzog (I)  2% (+1)
Stewart (L) 1% (n/c)
Other 0% (but some voters)
Not sure 6% (-6)
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2020, 11:32:56 AM »

While the fact that IA polling has been off the past several cycles shouldn't be ignored, I do have to say that polling over the past few months has been remarkably consistent in this race. With the exception of the very junky RABA poll, pretty much every poll has found Greenfield up by 2-5%. That's not enough of a lead to give me confidence, but Ernst does definitely need a decent polling error to win. It is true that Greenfield is just even with Biden, but even if we assume undecideds break somewhat in Ernst's favor, it seems more likely than not that she'll underperform Trump.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2020, 11:35:39 AM »

I'll believe Ernst losing when I see it. I think she wins by 3-4 points as of now, since IA polls systematically underestimate Republicans. Also, Greenfield and Biden are both at 47% in this poll, so that's probably her ceiling.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2020, 02:47:56 PM »

I'll believe Ernst losing when I see it. I think she wins by 3-4 points as of now, since IA polls systematically underestimate Republicans. Also, Greenfield and Biden are both at 47% in this poll, so that's probably her ceiling.


Iowa polls were pretty accurate in 2018.
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woodley park
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2020, 08:42:39 AM »

Ernst didn't know the break-even price for soybeans. Greenfield nailed the question on corn. Ernst is done!
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2020, 08:44:08 AM »

Ernst is done
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2020, 09:05:41 AM »

I'll believe Ernst losing when I see it. I think she wins by 3-4 points as of now, since IA polls systematically underestimate Republicans. Also, Greenfield and Biden are both at 47% in this poll, so that's probably her ceiling.


IA polls are not off 7-8 pts. Greenfield's average right now is +4.8. The polling in 2018 was off R+3.7, so that would still give Greenfield a 1% win.
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2020, 08:30:59 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2020, 08:36:33 PM by Use Your Illusion »

Ernst didn't know the break-even price for soybeans. Greenfield nailed the question on corn. Ernst is done!

Came here to say this. She just signed her own death warrant. It sounds trivial but that is a BIG ing deal to farmers. Not knowing the break-even price on soybeans gives the appearance of being out of touch and you better believe undecideds are gonna break for Greenfield heavily. I don't know about Biden winning IA but I'm rather confident now the senate seat is gonna flip. Not just because of this but Greenfield has been trending up and closing the gap for some time now.



Late edit: unrelated but more a blurb from my own heart. I would love to see an Iowa Democratic Farmer-Labor Party just like in Minnesota. I feel like if there's any other place it could work it would be there
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2020, 09:18:14 PM »

Ernst didn't know the break-even price for soybeans. Greenfield nailed the question on corn. Ernst is done!

Came here to say this. She just signed her own death warrant. It sounds trivial but that is a BIG ing deal to farmers. Not knowing the break-even price on soybeans gives the appearance of being out of touch and you better believe undecideds are gonna break for Greenfield heavily. I don't know about Biden winning IA but I'm rather confident now the senate seat is gonna flip. Not just because of this but Greenfield has been trending up and closing the gap for some time now.



Late edit: unrelated but more a blurb from my own heart. I would love to see an Iowa Democratic Farmer-Labor Party just like in Minnesota. I feel like if there's any other place it could work it would be there

The 2014 Democratic nominee made a comment about Grassley being "a farmer from Iowa without a law degree" in charge of the Senate Judiciary Committee, & Ernst successfully used it in a ton of attack ads, so yeah, I won't be surprised at all if/when the IA Dems capitalize on this by plastering the clip of it all over the state over these next few weeks.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2020, 09:22:58 PM »

Ernst didn't know the break-even price for soybeans. Greenfield nailed the question on corn. Ernst is done!

Came here to say this. She just signed her own death warrant. It sounds trivial but that is a BIG ing deal to farmers. Not knowing the break-even price on soybeans gives the appearance of being out of touch and you better believe undecideds are gonna break for Greenfield heavily. I don't know about Biden winning IA but I'm rather confident now the senate seat is gonna flip. Not just because of this but Greenfield has been trending up and closing the gap for some time now.



Late edit: unrelated but more a blurb from my own heart. I would love to see an Iowa Democratic Farmer-Labor Party just like in Minnesota. I feel like if there's any other place it could work it would be there

The 2014 Democratic nominee made a comment about Grassley being "a farmer from Iowa without a law degree" in charge of the Senate Judiciary Committee, & Ernst successfully used it in a ton of attack ads, so yeah, I won't be surprised at all if/when the IA Dems capitalize on this by plastering the clip of it all over the state over these next few weeks.

Yeah, Bob Belicheck was terrible.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2020, 10:57:36 PM »

Ernst didn't know the break-even price for soybeans. Greenfield nailed the question on corn. Ernst is done!

Came here to say this. She just signed her own death warrant. It sounds trivial but that is a BIG ing deal to farmers. Not knowing the break-even price on soybeans gives the appearance of being out of touch and you better believe undecideds are gonna break for Greenfield heavily. I don't know about Biden winning IA but I'm rather confident now the senate seat is gonna flip. Not just because of this but Greenfield has been trending up and closing the gap for some time now.



Late edit: unrelated but more a blurb from my own heart. I would love to see an Iowa Democratic Farmer-Labor Party just like in Minnesota. I feel like if there's any other place it could work it would be there

The 2014 Democratic nominee made a comment about Grassley being "a farmer from Iowa without a law degree" in charge of the Senate Judiciary Committee, & Ernst successfully used it in a ton of attack ads, so yeah, I won't be surprised at all if/when the IA Dems capitalize on this by plastering the clip of it all over the state over these next few weeks.

Yeah, Bob Belicheck was terrible.

Who is that? Do you mean Bruce Braley?
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2020, 11:26:25 PM »

Ernst didn't know the break-even price for soybeans. Greenfield nailed the question on corn. Ernst is done!

Came here to say this. She just signed her own death warrant. It sounds trivial but that is a BIG ing deal to farmers. Not knowing the break-even price on soybeans gives the appearance of being out of touch and you better believe undecideds are gonna break for Greenfield heavily. I don't know about Biden winning IA but I'm rather confident now the senate seat is gonna flip. Not just because of this but Greenfield has been trending up and closing the gap for some time now.



Late edit: unrelated but more a blurb from my own heart. I would love to see an Iowa Democratic Farmer-Labor Party just like in Minnesota. I feel like if there's any other place it could work it would be there

The 2014 Democratic nominee made a comment about Grassley being "a farmer from Iowa without a law degree" in charge of the Senate Judiciary Committee, & Ernst successfully used it in a ton of attack ads, so yeah, I won't be surprised at all if/when the IA Dems capitalize on this by plastering the clip of it all over the state over these next few weeks.

Yeah, Bob Belicheck was terrible.

Who is that? Do you mean Bruce Braley?

No, he means Brent Brasby.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2020, 11:41:19 PM »

I'm sure Ernst proving ust how out of touch she is with her constituents with her debate responses will help her.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2020, 03:57:10 AM »

Wow, amazing! And this was taken before the CORN bump and the SOYBEANS meltdown!
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WD
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2020, 04:02:32 AM »

Ernst didn't know the break-even price for soybeans. Greenfield nailed the question on corn. Ernst is done!

Came here to say this. She just signed her own death warrant. It sounds trivial but that is a BIG ing deal to farmers. Not knowing the break-even price on soybeans gives the appearance of being out of touch and you better believe undecideds are gonna break for Greenfield heavily. I don't know about Biden winning IA but I'm rather confident now the senate seat is gonna flip. Not just because of this but Greenfield has been trending up and closing the gap for some time now.



Late edit: unrelated but more a blurb from my own heart. I would love to see an Iowa Democratic Farmer-Labor Party just like in Minnesota. I feel like if there's any other place it could work it would be there

The 2014 Democratic nominee made a comment about Grassley being "a farmer from Iowa without a law degree" in charge of the Senate Judiciary Committee, & Ernst successfully used it in a ton of attack ads, so yeah, I won't be surprised at all if/when the IA Dems capitalize on this by plastering the clip of it all over the state over these next few weeks.

Yeah, Bob Belicheck was terrible.

Who is that? Do you mean Bruce Braley?

No, he means Brent Brasby.

Actually, itís Billy Brently.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2020, 06:47:11 AM »

Hum. Who are the 5% of voters who are voting for Trump but not voting for Senate?

We know many people who voted for Trump in 2016 donít have an automatic affinity for the GOP. Itís about him. They probably have a high misogyny risk, too.
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woodley park
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2020, 05:49:47 PM »

Ernst didn't know the break-even price for soybeans. Greenfield nailed the question on corn. Ernst is done!

Came here to say this. She just signed her own death warrant. It sounds trivial but that is a BIG ing deal to farmers. Not knowing the break-even price on soybeans gives the appearance of being out of touch and you better believe undecideds are gonna break for Greenfield heavily. I don't know about Biden winning IA but I'm rather confident now the senate seat is gonna flip. Not just because of this but Greenfield has been trending up and closing the gap for some time now.



Late edit: unrelated but more a blurb from my own heart. I would love to see an Iowa Democratic Farmer-Labor Party just like in Minnesota. I feel like if there's any other place it could work it would be there

The 2014 Democratic nominee made a comment about Grassley being "a farmer from Iowa without a law degree" in charge of the Senate Judiciary Committee, & Ernst successfully used it in a ton of attack ads, so yeah, I won't be surprised at all if/when the IA Dems capitalize on this by plastering the clip of it all over the state over these next few weeks.

Yeah, Bob Belicheck was terrible.

Who is that? Do you mean Bruce Braley?

No, he means Brent Brasby.

Actually, itís Billy Brently.

You're all wrong, he was Bum Bulling.
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