I appreciate that pollsters aren't herding but Q looks increasingly detached from the consensus. A fitting name for the times.
Q has Biden getting 36% of Whites in GA and 89% of Blacks. On a good night for Biden, I don't see how that's impossible. If anything, he likely hits 90%+ with Blacks, and if Whites are really turning against Trump, Biden getting to 36% is not that out of the realm of possibility.
Except that it would be in defiance of the longest and stubbornest trends of all: the movement of Deep South white voters, particularly rural/small-town southern white voters, away from the Democratic Party. If Biden's managing mean reversion, this isn't going to be where it happens much, if at all.
I thought the trend here was that Democrats were starting to win suburban/college-educated whites (or at least improve their abysmal margins) while basically hitting their floor with rural/non-college-educated whites?
That's true but a huge percentage of whites in Georgia are rural/small town. If you look at GA whites by CVAP, you get:
44.1% in rural and small-town Georgia.
25.4% in Atlanta's core 5 counties
19.8% in exurban Atlanta
10.6% in Georgia's mid-sized metros
If Trump wins the last group 90-10, that means Biden has to win the other three groups by a cumulative 55-45. Ultimately, I don't see that happening. If Biden wins Atlanta whites 65-35 (unprecedented but not impossible), he has to get at least 35% with white people in places like Cumming, Warner Robbins, and Peachtree City. I just don't see that happening. A majority of white Dem votes in GA come out of urban and inner-suburban Atlanta and that just can't stand up to the rest of the white population population-wise.
What is interesting is the white vote by CD. Traditionally, Democrats have only won the white vote in GA-05 (ITP Atlanta). This time around, they might be able to win it in GA-06 (North Atlanta) which has traditionally been second closest. I don't see anywhere else being viable yet.
