Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH

[wbrocks67]

Big if true. But press X for doubt, especially with regard to Georgia. Quinnipiac seems to be too Democratic-friendly in many of their polls.

Or maybe they are detecting what's happening in states when Biden IS up double digits nationwide? We'll know in 3 weeks but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that many pollsters could not be picking up a lot of support for Biden.

[Buzz]

This forum:

“Yeah the state polls just don’t match up with Biden up by 11 points, sorry!”

[high quality state polls are released consistent with a Biden double digit national lead]

“Outlier!!1! Trash poll!!1!!”

“High Quality” and Quinnipiac are words that’s should not be shared in the same thread.

[riceowl]

The +7 is probably a stretch, but it's more noteworthy that this is 4 points better for him than the last Q poll of Georgia (end of September)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is there something wrong with Quinnipiac's methodology or do its results just feel implausible and outlier-y to people? I'm not up on the exact reasons why different pollsters have the reputations they do these days, other than obvious jokes like Trashlolgar unskewing its own polls or Nate Cohn thinking undecided voters are too stupid to be worth pushing.

[President Johnson]

Big if true. But press X for doubt, especially with regard to Georgia. Quinnipiac seems to be too Democratic-friendly in many of their polls.

Or maybe they are detecting what's happening in states when Biden IS up double digits nationwide? We'll know in 3 weeks but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that many pollsters could not be picking up a lot of support for Biden.

Georgia is a tossup and Joe Biden could win it, obviously, but not by seven. Clearly an outlier unless proven otherwise.

[Badger]

I wish those Georgia numbers were true, but I sincerely doubt it. Still probably lean Biden at this point.

Can anyone suggest from the crosstabs why the number might be a bit optimistic for Biden? Or is it more likely just an issue of m o e?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Georgia is maybe a bit exaggerated but clearly Tilt Biden at this point.

Ohio is a pure toss-up but Republicans usually win pure toss-ups in Ohio, so Tilt Trump.

And usually tilt D states break evenly, so GA is a tossup, and since the GOP usually wins tossups, tilt R. Now the whole map is titanium tilt R!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Does any other pollster release outliers at such a frequency as Quinnipiac ?

They're nearly worse than Trafalgar.

[redjohn]

Big if true. But press X for doubt, especially with regard to Georgia. Quinnipiac seems to be too Democratic-friendly in many of their polls.

Or maybe they are detecting what's happening in states when Biden IS up double digits nationwide? We'll know in 3 weeks but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that many pollsters could not be picking up a lot of support for Biden.

Georgia is a tossup and Joe Biden could win it, obviously, but not by seve. Clearly an outlier unless proven otherwise.

If Biden is up in GA by a couple points, which isn't crazy at all depending on your voter screen, a Biden+7 result isn't insanely unrealistic in my opinion. GA swung from R+5 to R+1 in 2018, and demographics this year will certainly be more favorable to Democrats than in 2018. I could see Biden winning GA by mid single-digits on a good night.

[VAR]

Atlas’ affinity for this pollster has always confused me.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Biden will win GA by 2-3 points.

And then Stacey Abrams will run in 2022 and permanently put down the GA GOP forever (a generation at least)

[wbrocks67]

Is there something wrong with Quinnipiac's methodology or do its results just feel implausible and outlier-y to people? I'm not up on the exact reasons why different pollsters have the reputations they do these days, other than obvious jokes like Trashlolgar unskewing its own polls or Nate Cohn thinking undecided voters are too stupid to be worth pushing.

I don't get why people are so anti-Q-pac. First of all, their OH poll lines up perfectly with the average. Also, if Biden is really up about 11 nationwide, that is a 9% shift from Clinton. That would be Biden +4 in GA then, so if that's really the case, you would see a Biden +7 poll once in a while.

[new_patomic]

They seem to have a real lean-D bias in the South.

[wbrocks67]

I wish those Georgia numbers were true, but I sincerely doubt it. Still probably lean Biden at this point.

Can anyone suggest from the crosstabs why the number might be a bit optimistic for Biden? Or is it more likely just an issue of m o e?

I don't think the numbers are really that outlier-ish. Biden is getting 36% of Whites and 89% of Blacks. If anything, he could do a few % better with blacks in the end, and given Biden's strength with White voters, 36% doesn't seem like that *much* of a stretch.

[wbrocks67]

Does any other pollster release outliers at such a frequency as Quinnipiac ?

They're nearly worse than Trafalgar.

OH is not an outlier. SC was not an outlier. PA was not an outlier. They either hit the averages or had other high quality polls backing them up.

[Crumpets]

Biden is now favored in Georgia on both 538 and RCP. I repeat, Georgia is now favored in Georgia on both 538 and RCP.

[VAR]

Does any other pollster release outliers at such a frequency as Quinnipiac ?

They're nearly worse than Trafalgar.

OH is not an outlier. SC was not an outlier. PA was not an outlier. They either hit the averages or had other high quality polls backing them up.

lmao

[Buzz]

LMAO.  I guess Ohio is locked in for Trump then.  The Georgia number is obviously junk.  

Something tells me that if this poll showed Trump up by 7 in GA you'd move your rating of GA to safe R.

You would be correct.  The have a Dem bias, so that would lead me to think Trump would win GA by double digits.

[redjohn]

GA's going to go for Biden, just watch. The trends are there, the polling is there, it's happening in three weeks.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I appreciate that pollsters aren't herding but Q looks increasingly detached from the consensus. A fitting name for the times.

Q has Biden getting 36% of Whites in GA and 89% of Blacks. On a good night for Biden, I don't see how that's impossible. If anything, he likely hits 90%+ with Blacks, and if Whites are really turning against Trump, Biden getting to 36% is not that out of the realm of possibility.

Except that it would be in defiance of the longest and stubbornest trends of all: the movement of Deep South white voters, particularly rural/small-town southern white voters, away from the Democratic Party. If Biden's managing mean reversion, this isn't going to be where it happens much, if at all.

[Gass3268]

538 has Biden winning Georgia now!

[VAR]

GA's going to go for Biden, just watch. The trends are there, the polling is there, it's happening in three weeks.

GA looks pretty bad for the GOP in the long term.

[new_patomic]

I appreciate that pollsters aren't herding but Q looks increasingly detached from the consensus. A fitting name for the times.

Q has Biden getting 36% of Whites in GA and 89% of Blacks. On a good night for Biden, I don't see how that's impossible. If anything, he likely hits 90%+ with Blacks, and if Whites are really turning against Trump, Biden getting to 36% is not that out of the realm of possibility.

Except that it would be in defiance of the longest and stubbornest trends of all: the movement of Deep South white voters, particularly rural/small-town southern white voters, away from the Democratic Party. If Biden's managing mean reversion, this isn't going to be where it happens much, if at all.

I thought the trend here was that Democrats were starting to win suburban/college-educated whites (or at least improve their abysmal margins) while basically hitting their floor with rural/non-college-educated whites?

[Pollster]

Biden getting 36% of Georgia whites would be +11 over Abrams, +15 over Clinton, +13 over Nunn and Obama 2008. It is, needless to say, a huge stretch.

The party breakdown in the Georgia sample is far too generous to Democrats, Ohio's conversely is a bit generous to Republicans.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

GA
October 8-12
1040 likely voters
MoE: 3%
Changes with September 23-27

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 44% (-3)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Don't know/no answer 4% (+2)

OH
October 8-12
1160 likely voters
MoE: 2.9%
Changes with September 17-21

Biden 48% (n/c)
Trump 47% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no answer 4% (n/c)