Yikes. I doubt there's a seven-point gap between this and the Senate race, but it's not looking good for Cooney.
Consider toplines as well as margins. This race has the highest percentage of undecided voters out of any polled this time around (with the exception of the ballot initiative), so there's plenty of room for a fightback.
Eh, the writing on the wall is there. Montana will have its first Republican governor since 2005 
If "the writing is on the wall" with a lead of 45% to 40% then you may as well write off Collins, Tillis, James, etc. (and Trump's reelection bid months ago). Gianforte is decently favoured in my view (a firm lean R) but Cooney has a semi-decent chance of turning it around and the party/donors would be stupid to triage it. It's important to note that final margins tend to mean less in non-federal races because voters tend to have a bit more flexibility that far downballot and so there are more people open to persuasion who might end up breaking heavily for one candidate in the final stretch.
