MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[brucejoel99]

BY GAWD, IS THAT JASON KANDER'S MUSIC !?!

(Alas, a man can dream.)

[brucejoel99]

And here I thought that they might mostly be retiring because they can see the writing on the wall of not only Democrats being in the final stages of passing a massively popular piece of legislation aimed at providing real relief to struggling Americans during one of the biggest crises of the last century, but of Republicans themselves enabling them to do so on a straight party-line vote. How stupid must some of us be to have thought that might maybe, just maybe result in the Democrats actually doing well with a 1962/1998/2002, even in spite of 2022 being an INFALLIBLE BIDEN MIDTERM !?1?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1368963530465116167?s=19

Ok, but it's not a Shermanesque denial

[brucejoel99]

And here I thought that they might mostly be retiring because they can see the writing on the wall of not only Democrats being in the final stages of passing a massively popular piece of legislation aimed at providing real relief to struggling Americans during one of the biggest crises of the last century, but of Republicans themselves enabling them to do so on a straight party-line vote. How stupid must some of us be to have thought that might maybe, just maybe result in the Democrats actually doing well with a 1962/1998/2002, even in spite of 2022 being an INFALLIBLE BIDEN MIDTERM !?1?

This is absurd, even by your standards, Biden's popularity is at -21 in MO so it is very unlikely that Blunt is retiring because he is seeing ''the writing on the wall'', and even assuming that democrats will get a decent midterm, which is not backed by the facts outside of some national polls where Biden voters are massively oversampled, it is hard to see how the climate could be good enough for them to win in a red state like Missouri.

As for Blunt, the dude is probably retiring because he wants to make more money as a lobbyist (1) or because he is tired of Trump's influence among the GOP base (2).

...

I- no, no words. Just lol.

Where did I even so much as imply (let alone outright state, as you're acting as if I did) that this had anything to do with Blunt as an individual or a state like MO in particular? Obviously, Blunt (&, not to mention, Senators like Portman, Burr, Toomey, & Shelby, though the latter admittedly might just be retiring on account of his age moreso than anything else) could & would win re-election if he sought it. That's not at all a question here. It goes without saying, which is why I didn't feel the need to say it, because it isn't something that should've even required an explicit statement thereof such as this.

What I was very clearly getting at (& which nobody else evidently had any problems understanding) is that Republican senators on the whole don't seem to be gung-ho with the possibility of what could be a long-haul tenure (i.e. >2 years) in the minority, & aren't inclined to remain in such a situation if they feel that they don't have to. Hence a retirement like Blunt's. Hence retirements like Portman's, & Burr's, & Toomey's, & possibly Shelby's.

Jesus, did I murder your cat or something? Seriously, what made you so blind with an evident hostility for me &/or my #analysis (given your blatantly uncalled-for "aBsUrD, eVeN bY yOuR sTaNdArDs" remark) that you completely f**king missed the underlying point thereof that was otherwise clear-as-day for seemingly everybody else?

[brucejoel99]

And Cori Bush, as hitherto noted:

https://twitter.com/jrosenbaum/status/1369108398701092866

[brucejoel99]

I was told the Lincoln Project was dead, & am saddened to see that the reports of said death were evidently exaggerated.

[brucejoel99]

Claire isn’t having it with the Lincoln Project’s delusion about purple MO.

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1370003483949154305?s=21

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1370004083680149510
Ok but Claire, it's impossible for a D to win this seat.

[brucejoel99]

Claire isn’t having it with the Lincoln Project’s delusion about purple MO.

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1370003483949154305?s=21

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1370004083680149510
Ok but Claire, it's impossible for a D to win this seat.

I mean it’s not impossible, republicans just need to nominate a pedophile like with Moore

Maybe in a special, but even regular midterm turnout would still probably be enough to push the GOP over-the-line in such a situation.

https://themissouritimes.com/eric-schmitt-to-announce-candidacy-for-us-senate/

Missouri Attorney General and former Missouri State Treasurer Eric Schmitt is in

Hawley 2: Electric Boogaloo

[brucejoel99]

Claire isn’t having it with the Lincoln Project’s delusion about purple MO.

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1370003483949154305?s=21

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1370004083680149510

Ok but Claire, it's impossible for a D to win this seat.

No it's not.

Doug Jones like to have a word with you about how impossible it was to win Alabama for god's sake.

It's how she said it. It's a stretch to call it a swing state, but it's not impossible to win that seat, but it will require a perfect storm and the perfect circumstances, just like for Doug Jones in 2017.

Once again: maybe in a special, sure, but this ain't a special, & even in the event of the GOP nominating a Roy Moore, regular midterm turnout would probably be enough to push the GOP over-the-line.

[brucejoel99]

Felony charges, sexual misconduct, & just generally being a scumbag? Greitens fits right in with where the GOP is currently at. It's too bad that the Democrats have literally no chance at all in any event here.

[brucejoel99]

If the Dems can’t stop him in MO they can at least use him as a wedge issue for candidates across the country in the general.

Why waste ads on him when we could be focusing our attention on the true monster of American politics, Young Kim?

[brucejoel99]

Remember when disastrous GOP candidates could lose by double-digits in this state not so long ago? Good times.

I believe Greitens could have lost in 2020 if the legislature had somehow decided not to impeach him. His approval had fallen into the 30s by March 2018. I imagine it was probably even lower by the time he resigned.

It would have been a narrow loss, but he would have been very defeatable.

More than 2-&-a-1/2 years is a long time, though. For all we know, he could just as easily have Northam'd himself.

[brucejoel99]

Oh god, we're really gonna try the "red-state Democratic Governor for Senate" card again, aren't we?

[brucejoel99]

We shouldn't even be having this megathread. Megathreads are for competitive races.

Megathreads merely ensure that there aren't 35 news stories that all pertain to one race clogging up the board. The presumed competitiveness of a race in the general - or, rather, the lack thereof - is wholly irrelevant in the matter.