MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Suburbia]

If Blunt retires in a Biden midterm, it's Likely R.

Sarah Steelman's seat if she wants it.

[Suburbia]

If Blunt retires in a Biden midterm, it's Likely R.

Sarah Steelman's seat if she wants it.

The race probably gets marginally easier for Republicans if Blunt retires in a Biden midterm and the nominee isn't Greitens. Blunt is a weak incumbent.

Yes, Blunt is one of the vulnerable Senate Republicans in 2022

[Suburbia]

Probably Sarah Steelman vs. Crystal Quade.

Likely R since it is a Biden midterm.

Steelman, like Hawley will be on GOP presidential lists for 2024, 2028

[Suburbia]

Probably Sarah Steelman vs. Crystal Quade.

Likely R since it is a Biden midterm.

Steelman, like Hawley will be on GOP presidential lists for 2024, 2028

Why not Ann Wagner?

Wagner could run as well, she was the MOGOP chair, she was an Ambassador, etc.

[Suburbia]

Even if Greitens defeated Blunt in the primary, he'd win the general election easily.

Missouri Democrats have a pretty strong track record of beating Republicans who are widely recognized as insane, terrible candidates. Obviously Greitens could still win, but against a good candidate he would not be a shoo-in. It may have been a gubernatorial race, but he only won by 5% when he WASN'T damaged goods.

This will be a Biden midterm, and Missouri is even redder than it was in 2016. After Claire McCaskill's 6-point loss to Josh Hawley, and Nicole Galloway's 17-point loss to Mike Parson, it really isn't possible.

Claire McCaskill was running as a unpopular incumbent whose luck ran out against a popular opponent who was a great fit for the 2018 electorate in Missouri. Galloway shouldn't have lost by 17 points (she ran a poor campaign), but Parson wasn't even high profile enough to be vulnerable this year, especially without the ability for Democrats to run a proper field operation. Missouri Republicans who have negative impressions with the public lose pretty frequently, and it's inane to pretend we know exactly how the national environment would shape a race against Greitens, especially with a bloody primary and against a top-tier opponent like Crystal Quade. I'm not saying it's lean D or even a tossup, but pretending it's completely safe R against Erotic Eric is ridiculous.

Greitens could beat Blunt or Wagner, and he'll run against Black liberal women like Kim Gardner and Cori Bush to get rural Missouri turnout outside of STL and KC in the general election, and tie Quade/Kander or Shackelford to those women.

[Suburbia]

I think Galloway holds on and wins reelection in 2022 to her Auditor seat.

She has to distance from AOC/Omar and run a Jay Nixon-type campaign

She can run up the score in STL and KC

She could run again for governor in 2024

As for MO-SEN 2022, it is Likely R since Kander won't run

The MO Dems should let Kander be the chair.

[Suburbia]

I knew that Blunt did not care for beyond

He is a very unappealing politician, Robin Carnahan would have beaten him in a McCain midterm...

Sen. Ann Wagner or Sen. Sarah Steelman?

[Suburbia]

No, Nixon should not run.

Bredesen, Bayh, Nixon are from a dying relic sadly....there is a reason why Christie, Pataki, Schwarzenegger, Hogan and Baker aren't running as blue state Republicans in Senate seats, because Senate races are too nationalized.

Nixon should be an elder statesman; Schumer hasn't learned his lesson about recruiting red state governors...Manchin is an exception, this may never happen again

[Suburbia]

We shouldn't even be having this megathread. Megathreads are for competitive races.

Not everyone only finds who wins between the Republican and the Democrat to be the only interesting part of an election.

You need a megathread for all races. Indiana, Kentucky, Kansas too...

[Suburbia]

When Jay Nixon was attorney general of Missouri in the 1990s, he handled a school desegregation case badly, and that could potentially cost him a third Senate bid...he lost in 1988 and 1998......

If he wins the nomination, Cori Bush may not endorse him, she may leave the ballot blank and tell her supporters......Nixon would have to make inroads in to his former rural base and excite Black voters to come out in Columbia, STL and KC....basically the Nixon 2008/McCaskill 2006/McCaskill 2012/Koster 2012 map....probably even the Galloway 2018 map....since a lot of Carnahan/McCaskill/Nixon's base are gone....

https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/06/16/cq/missouri.html

[Suburbia]

When Jay Nixon was attorney general of Missouri in the 1990s, he handled a school desegregation case badly, and that could potentially cost him a third Senate bid...he lost in 1988 and 1998......

If he wins the nomination, Cori Bush may not endorse him, she may leave the ballot blank and tell her supporters......Nixon would have to make inroads in to his former rural base and excite Black voters to come out in Columbia, STL and KC....basically the Nixon 2008/McCaskill 2006/McCaskill 2012/Koster 2012 map....probably even the Galloway 2018 map....since a lot of Carnahan/McCaskill/Nixon's base are gone....

https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/06/16/cq/missouri.html

What about Obama 2008's map? He nearly won Missouri, and if the urban/suburban margin could be expanded slightly, that could mean victory. (Of course, it's unlikely that map gets regenerated again in 2022.)

Maybe. Nixon should not run, he is too outdated for the state, probably. The Dems should just run with Lucas Kunce or someone like that.

[Suburbia]

Kunce can lose by 15 points or so....

Will any of the Carnahans run, or are they finished in politics like Nixon and McCaskill?

What about Chris Koster?

Likely R/Safe R...

It's shameful how red MO has moved since 2000

[Suburbia]

Nixon didn’t have a chance to begin with.

Nixon seems to have recognized this, and probably kept in mind what happened to Bayh, Bredesen, Strickland, and Bullock-all former Governors who lost Senate races by double digits in their now staunchly Republican states.

This.

Does any of the Carnahans run? Koster? Montee? Francis Slay?

[Suburbia]

Why are we so worried about this seat and we have IA, OH and NC

Like Missouri, Iowa AND Ohio are probably gone.

Dems need to focus on holding on to GA/NV/AZ/NH, while gaining PA/NC/WI.....FL as insurance....if they want to make Manchin and Sinema irrelevant in 2023...then contest FL/TX and hold on to OH or WV in 2024...

[Suburbia]

Democrats should not waste money here, Likely/Safe D unless a Roy Moore situation emerges.

Republicans should have recruited Kurt Warner. No baggage, could appeal to Black voters in STL.

[Suburbia]

Safe R I mean.