MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

The MO GOP is mess, so as for whose going to take over :shrug:
But I doubt the state's winnable.

It will be nice to see the contemptable Blunt family finally go away though

[brucejoel99]

BY GAWD, IS THAT JASON KANDER'S MUSIC !?!

(Alas, a man can dream.)

[NYSforKennedy2024]

BY GAWD, IS THAT JASON KANDER'S MUSIC !?!

(Alas, a man can dream.)

My username will finally be relevant

[ElectionsGuy]

Weird 5  senate republicans and zero democrats are retiring. Maybe they know something we don't.

What they "know" is that large parts of the party base have suspicion for many of these career establishment GOP senators that keep winning off the back of Trump and "not a Democrat". Every Republican that's retiring is doing so not because they're scared of the electoral environment (2022 should be better for them than 2028, for example), but because they don't like what the GOP has become and/or are scared of getting primaried. This is especially likely due to Trump's threats of primary endorsements (even though he's only endorsed 3 incumbents so far lol). In the case of Shelby it's probably just age, but everybody else probably would've run had the party not been Trumpified.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Even if Kander wanted to run, which it seems like he doesn't, he maybe shifts the race to Likely R instead of Safe R. This one is gone for Democrats for a while.

[Suburbia]

I knew that Blunt did not care for beyond

He is a very unappealing politician, Robin Carnahan would have beaten him in a McCain midterm...

Sen. Ann Wagner or Sen. Sarah Steelman?

[user12345]

Well, looks like Missouri might be getting another Hawley.

[Sir Mohamed]

I thought he already announced that years ago?

[JoeInator]

Safe R -> Still Safe R.

Also, this might be a bit off topic but I think Blunt will be the final Senate retirement of the 2022 cycle, unless we get a surprise retirement from someone like Wyden and Murray. I just don't see anyone else retiring, even Grassley or Leahy. But at the same time I didn't expect Blunt to retire, either, so I'll wait and see what happens.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R -> Safe R

[2016]

Missouri has moved too much to the right! Probably a good choice for Blunt to retire now. Kit Bond did the same thing after 2008. Democrats don't have a bench here anymore. Only Democrat who would have a remote shot is Kander but he won't run.
Missouri Democratic State Party is run by leftwing Extremists.

[Pollster]

Kander reaffirming that he's out:

https://twitter.com/JasonKander/status/1368952464494522369?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

55/45 Senators and 240 House D

Lucky break for SIFTON

[brucejoel99]

And here I thought that they might mostly be retiring because they can see the writing on the wall of not only Democrats being in the final stages of passing a massively popular piece of legislation aimed at providing real relief to struggling Americans during one of the biggest crises of the last century, but of Republicans themselves enabling them to do so on a straight party-line vote. How stupid must some of us be to have thought that might maybe, just maybe result in the Democrats actually doing well with a 1962/1998/2002, even in spite of 2022 being an INFALLIBLE BIDEN MIDTERM !?1?

[Greedo punched first]

Will we end up with Todd Akin or Courtland Sykes?

[Greedo punched first]

Who will the GOP nominee be?

[HAnnA MArin County]

Who will the GOP nominee be?

I have a feeling the establishment is going to get behind Ann Wagner.

Nonetheless, nothing to see here, folks. This state is gone for Dems. And Jason Kander just tweeted a few minutes ago that he's not running.

[tmthforu94]

Not super thrilled with this, as it increases the chances of Greitens getting it. But I have to hope the reason Blunt didn't run is because he knew Greitens wouldn't either. As boring as he may be, Blunt was the best shot at defeating Greitens in a primary.

Statewide, AG Eric Schmitt and SoS Jay Ashcroft are both possibilities. Ann Wagner also seems like someone likely to run, especially considering the trends of her district. She is my top choice for now.

[MT Treasurer]

If you were a Democrat, would you prefer it if several of your party's "incumbents" in competitive/-ish states retired in a midterm under a Republican president or if they retired six years later in a presidential year of which you have no way of knowing who will be at the top of ticket/how trends will change/how it will turn out/etc.? There’s absolutely no need to overinterpret these retirements (especially since polling has actually been showing Republicans in a very good position in this particular state, not that we needed [potentially inaccurate] polling to come to that conclusion when common sense would/should have sufficed).

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1368963530465116167?s=19

[WD]

tossup imo

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1368963530465116167?s=19

Ok, but it's not a Shermanesque denial

[Hope For A New Era]

Likely R remains Likely R


Move along, nothing to see here

[MT Treasurer]

tossup imo

especially with trump not on the ballot and the fink on the ballot in ia tbh

[One Term Floridian]

Is it-is it Kander time?!