MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Real Texan Politics]

Hopefully Trump can endorse her next. I supported Long but if he’s got hardly any shot then I’ll go for Hartzler.

[MarkD]

Well, in a little under six months, we'll see the results of the GOP primary in Missouri and then we'll find out whether Mitt Romney was right to say that endorsements are not worth a thimble of spit. I mean that Hartzler will probably still end up in third place, with either Greitens or Schmitt winning the race.

[Forum explorer]

Eric Greitens is Kris Kobach all over again. The Dems will be deluded into thinking they can beat a flawed candidate in an r state only for said flawed candidate to lose the primary and the Dem nominee getting obliterated and a ton of money that could have actually been spent on winnable seats will have been thrown away.

[Roll Roons]

Eric Greitens is Kris Kobach all over again. The Dems will be deluded into thinking they can beat a flawed candidate in an r state only for said flawed candidate to lose the primary and the Dem nominee getting obliterated and a ton of money that could have actually been spent on winnable seats will have been thrown away.

I don't think Democrats seriously think they have a shot at winning Missouri, even with Greitens.

[ElectionsGuy]

Eric Greitens is Kris Kobach all over again. The Dems will be deluded into thinking they can beat a flawed candidate in an r state only for said flawed candidate to lose the primary and the Dem nominee getting obliterated and a ton of money that could have actually been spent on winnable seats will have been thrown away.

Look at the 2018 New Jersey Senate race for a guide to how that will go, even if he is the nominee and is as bad as everyone says he is.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Eric Greitens is Kris Kobach all over again. The Dems will be deluded into thinking they can beat a flawed candidate in an r state only for said flawed candidate to lose the primary and the Dem nominee getting obliterated and a ton of money that could have actually been spent on winnable seats will have been thrown away.

Look at the 2018 New Jersey Senate race for a guide to how that will go, even if he is the nominee and is as bad as everyone says he is.

Eric Greitens is best described as the Andrew Cuomo of Missouri.
I'm usually more bullish on Republicans than most users on this forum, but Missouri would be Lean R imo if Greitens is the nominee. Going back to my previous example, its like if New York was a D+15 state in a Republican midterm with Andrew Cuomo as the nominee, he's clearly favored, but is vulnerable.

[Real Texan Politics]

Hopefully Trump can endorse her next. I supported Long but if he’s got hardly any shot then I’ll go for Hartzler.

Speaking of which, I stand corrected...
https://twitter.com/esquirenews/status/1494894344184209408?s=20&t=CpxS_b5B43...

[MarkD]

Yesterday was the first day of filing for candidates who want to appear on the August ballot as a candidate for party nomination. The filing period, as it stands now, is to run through March 29. Yesterday, a total of 15 Republicans filed to run for the US Senate, one more Republican filed today, and yesterday, 8 Democrats filed to run, but no more today. So now there are twice as many Republicans who are running as Democrats -- 16 to 8. I'm sure 16 candidates in one primary for one office is a record in Missouri history (never mind that there might be even more by the end of March).

Of course, the four who we're most familiar with -- Greitens, Schmitt, Hartzler, and Long -- filed yesterday, as did McCloskey and state Senator Schatz. There are nine candidates who I have never heard of before. But there is one other name that is very familiar to me among the 16 Republicans who are running, and that's a guy by the name of Bernie Mowinski. I know that name because he is one of a handful of Missouri's perennial candidates. I've researched his history, and in the last 24 years, he has run for various offices nine times, starting with 1998 and continuing through 2020 (the only even-numbered years he has not run for any office were in 2000, 2008, and 2018). Mowinski has run for state representative five times (the first time as a Democrat, and all subsequent occasions as a Republican), twice for state senator, once for US House, and once before for US Senate. This year will mark the second time in a row in which he has run for the Class III Senate seat. He almost always came in last place in the various primaries in which he ran; the only time he didn't come in last place was when he came in 4th place in a five-way race. In any event, I'm pretty sure this is going to be a pretty tight race between Schmitt, Greitens, and Hartzler; Long will come in a not-close fourth place, McCloskey and Schatz will compete for fifth and sixth place, and the rest will all be in the single digits -- less than 3% apiece for Mowinski and the other nine also-rans.

On the Democratic side, among the eight who have filed so far is one woman whose name I recognize: Carla Coffee Wright. I recognize her because four years ago, she ran against Claire McCaskill in the primary. McCaskill, of course, won that 2018 primary by a landslide, with 82.60% of the votes; C.C. Wright came in a distant second place with 6.77%, beating five other minor candidates. Of course, this year, the only two people who have a chance to win the Democratic primary are Lucas Kunce and former state senator Scott Sifton.

In other (unrelated) statewide race news, only three people so far have filed to run for state Auditor: Republicans David Gregory and Scott Fitzpatrick, and Democrat Alan Greene. Gregory is a three-term state representative from south St. Louis County while Fitzpatrick is the current state Treasurer (and a former state rep). Greene, who is black, is a former state representative from Northeast St. Louis County, having won election to the state house in 2014, 2016, and 2018, and then he unsuccessfully tried for the state senate two years ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map but it's VBM it's not same day voting and anything can can happen we won 80 M votes in 2020 not the Rs on VBM and Minorities and females vote by mail ballot urban vote not the rural vote Grietans is leading only by 4 in a new poll

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump just released a statement praising Greitens.
I honestly don't think he'll endorse in this race. Literally everyone is telling him not to endorse Greitens and he doesn't want to "risk a Senate seat" like that, but he also doesn't want to reward McConnell by endorsing against one of the only people promising not to support him as leader.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Honestly, I think Trump is about to endorse Greitens soon.
He just met with him last week, he praised him in a statement and Greitens is clearly trying to impress him more than any other candidate.
Originally I thought Trump would stay out of the race (and yet secretly hope Greitens wins) because he talks with Hawley (who hates Greitens) often about the race and literally every Republican is begging him not to endorse him, but I think he's really wowed by him, ESPECIALLY his pledge to not support McConnell.
According to a new Politico article Trump is seriously considering endorsing him. If he does, he's guaranteed the Senate seat.

I do think Greitens will underperform another R. He's the Andrew Cuomo of Missouri. But his floor is a 10% win, and he'll likely win by about 12-15%, while someone else would win by more than 20%.

[MarkD]

Honestly, I think Trump is about to endorse Greitens soon.
He just met with him last week, he praised him in a statement and Greitens is clearly trying to impress him more than any other candidate.
Originally I thought Trump would stay out of the race (and yet secretly hope Greitens wins) because he talks with Hawley (who hates Greitens) often about the race and literally every Republican is begging him not to endorse him, but I think he's really wowed by him, ESPECIALLY his pledge to not support McConnell.
According to a new Politico article Trump is seriously considering endorsing him. If he does, he's guaranteed the Senate seat.

I do think Greitens will underperform another R. He's the Andrew Cuomo of Missouri. But his floor is a 10% win, and he'll likely win by about 12-15%, while someone else would win by more than 20%.

That's hardly as inevitable as you make it seem. Trump's endorsement is not gold. Ask Susan Wright and Luther Strange. As Romney said, endorsements are not worth a thimble of spit, and that's true even in terms of Trump's endorsements. Recent polls have indicated that many Republicans are getting tired of Trump talking about his theory that election 2020 was stolen. His every word is simply not going to be continued to be worshipped blindly.

In other news about the race for the Republican nomination, there are now 18 candidates who have filed to run. A dozen of these candidates are nobodies who will probably end up with no more than 1% each. Imagine seeing a Missouri primary election with 18 candidates on the ballot, maybe more!

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Honestly, I think Trump is about to endorse Greitens soon.
He just met with him last week, he praised him in a statement and Greitens is clearly trying to impress him more than any other candidate.
Originally I thought Trump would stay out of the race (and yet secretly hope Greitens wins) because he talks with Hawley (who hates Greitens) often about the race and literally every Republican is begging him not to endorse him, but I think he's really wowed by him, ESPECIALLY his pledge to not support McConnell.
According to a new Politico article Trump is seriously considering endorsing him. If he does, he's guaranteed the Senate seat.

I do think Greitens will underperform another R. He's the Andrew Cuomo of Missouri. But his floor is a 10% win, and he'll likely win by about 12-15%, while someone else would win by more than 20%.

That's hardly as inevitable as you make it seem. Trump's endorsement is not gold. Ask Susan Wright and Luther Strange. As Romney said, endorsements are not worth a thimble of spit, and that's true even in terms of Trump's endorsements. Recent polls have indicated that many Republicans are getting tired of Trump talking about his theory that election 2020 was stolen. His every word is simply not going to be continued to be worshipped blindly.

In other news about the race for the Republican nomination, there are now 18 candidates who have filed to run. A dozen of these candidates are nobodies who will probably end up with no more than 1% each. Imagine seeing a Missouri primary election with 18 candidates on the ballot, maybe more!

He's the clear frontrunner still after millions of dollars have poured in from out-of-state trying to stop him. If Trump endorses him I don't see how he loses.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

in a Biden midterm

You all keep saying this. In the last six midterm elections, three have had the non-Presidential party gain, two have had the Presidential party gain, and one has had no change in overall composition.

It seems like the House is much more likely to dramatically swing against the President's party in a midterm.

So what if it's a Biden Midterm Trump got impeached and still managed to hold onto the Senate in under 5 PERCENT unemployment

The forum thinks just because it's a Midterm Biden is set to lose lol it ain't over until the votes are counting

[MarkD]

Honestly, I think Trump is about to endorse Greitens soon.
He just met with him last week, he praised him in a statement and Greitens is clearly trying to impress him more than any other candidate.
Originally I thought Trump would stay out of the race (and yet secretly hope Greitens wins) because he talks with Hawley (who hates Greitens) often about the race and literally every Republican is begging him not to endorse him, but I think he's really wowed by him, ESPECIALLY his pledge to not support McConnell.
According to a new Politico article Trump is seriously considering endorsing him. If he does, he's guaranteed the Senate seat.

I do think Greitens will underperform another R. He's the Andrew Cuomo of Missouri. But his floor is a 10% win, and he'll likely win by about 12-15%, while someone else would win by more than 20%.

That's hardly as inevitable as you make it seem. Trump's endorsement is not gold. Ask Susan Wright and Luther Strange. As Romney said, endorsements are not worth a thimble of spit, and that's true even in terms of Trump's endorsements. Recent polls have indicated that many Republicans are getting tired of Trump talking about his theory that election 2020 was stolen. His every word is simply not going to be continued to be worshipped blindly.

In other news about the race for the Republican nomination, there are now 18 candidates who have filed to run. A dozen of these candidates are nobodies who will probably end up with no more than 1% each. Imagine seeing a Missouri primary election with 18 candidates on the ballot, maybe more!

He's the clear frontrunner still after millions of dollars have poured in from out-of-state trying to stop him. If Trump endorses him I don't see how he loses.

Yes, Greitens has been the frontrunner. But what I'm saying is that Trump's endorsement is not a clincher. Trump's endorsement has not been proven to be a consistent indicator of success; like I said before, think about Luther Strange and Susan Wright. The Missouri Republican primary this year is going to be a very tight three-way race between Greitens, Schmitt, and Hartzler. Yes, according to every poll Greitens is ahead, but he has not been consistently far ahead.

[ibagli]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1505947481275781123?t=pGbGA5m6ojRLgTcL...

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

He's not dropping out and is calling the allegations lies.
If the anti-Greitens field is still split by the primary (as looks likely) he'll still win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RS should be worried about FLORIDA Crist is not gonna lose to Rick Scott whom is not a Trumpian, Crist is running against DeSantis whom is a Trumpian

There is gonna be surprises in 2022, whom did Carville recruit, Demings he said it was his upset special

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1506739467696103429?s=21

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Lol at Trump slightly propping up the weakest of the 3 anti-Greitens candidates.
This primary is like the 2016 GOP nomination. There's Greitens and there's "the rest", and no one wants to be the one to drop out.

[Lambsbread]

Imagine if Obama released statements like this. Imagine if Obama was like “hey has anyone taken a look at this Shaun Donovan guy for Mayor of New York City??”

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Imagine if Obama released statements like this. Imagine if Obama was like “hey has anyone taken a look at this Shaun Donovan guy for Mayor of New York City??”

"Have the great people of New Hampshire been considering the great Deval Patrick for President? Not an endorsement, but just askin'?"

[lfromnj]

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/greitens-investigator-pleads-guilty-to-evidence-tampering-on-eve-of-trial/article_936189af-4922-5771-8edc-ec41f2b312c6.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scott-sifton-drops-u-senate-011753989.html


With Grietans tied in the polls Sifton drops out making it easier for Kunce

Endorsed Kunce he is tied or leading in a red state like Cristvis

[user12345]

He endorsed Trudy Busch Valentine, not Kunce.