MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Suburbia]

Why are we so worried about this seat and we have IA, OH and NC

Like Missouri, Iowa AND Ohio are probably gone.

Dems need to focus on holding on to GA/NV/AZ/NH, while gaining PA/NC/WI.....FL as insurance....if they want to make Manchin and Sinema irrelevant in 2023...then contest FL/TX and hold on to OH or WV in 2024...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we so worried about this seat and we have IA, OH and NC

Like Missouri, Iowa AND Ohio are probably gone.

Dems need to focus on holding on to GA/NV/AZ/NH, while gaining PA/NC/WI.....FL as insurance....if they want to make Manchin and Sinema irrelevant in 2023...then contest FL/TX and hold on to OH or WV in 2024...

No OH and NC aren't gon, the most these candidates are down by are 5/8 points Brown and Biden plans on endorsing Ryan and Beasley when they win the primary

How can OH be gone, Renacci or DeWine will win the Gov race, WHALEY is a bad candidate, but Ryan is definitely a blue collar D that can beat Vance or Josh Mandel, Mandel performance in 2012 was abysmal

The only poll we have in OH was Vance 39/37

NC is definitely a Tossup, we have a D Gov and Fink is gorgeous

[NewYorkExpress]

After Ferguson, Nixon would have drawn a strong primary challenge from an African-American/Justice Democrat.

We'd probably be talking about Cori Bush as the Democratic nominee if Nixon had run.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cori Bush isn't gonna leave the H as a Freshman H member already The Rs are gonna win FL and MO, but OH, IA, Mac and potentially AK with Gross beating out Murkowski to place second against a Palin are wave insurence especially if we loose GA.


Don't underestimate Gross he is dangerous if he goes against especially Kelly and he wins the Runoffs

Don't underestimate Ryan or Fink and Cook has NC and WI as Tossups

[JMT]

Missed this news a few days ago, but State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick is NOT running for Senate. He instead announced a campaign for State Auditor:

https://twitter.com/fitzpatrickmo/status/1420770680967204867?s=21

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/1422524916960743424

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/1422524916960743424

It's amazing the extent to which all Republicans have come to deploy Trumpian political attacks against the Democrats.

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/1422524916960743424

Every statement released by a Republican is just cartoonish nowadays. The absurdity of it all.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/1422524916960743424

Every statement released by a Republican is just cartoonish nowadays. The absurdity of it all.

This is what I was just saying above. Republican statements seem heavy on the use of words such as "radical", "leftist", "socialist", "far-left", "BLM", "Antifa", "cancel culture", "woke", and all of the associated terms.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1422723200849522689?s=21

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Long has met with Trump and Kellyanne Conway will be his senior advisor.. I expect a endorsement soon.

[Calthrina950]

Long has met with Trump and Kellyanne Conway will be his senior advisor.. I expect a endorsement soon.

Hasn't Long been a staunch Trump supporter? I recall him being very enthusiastic at Trump's last State of the Union address. I wouldn't be surprised if he receives Trump's endorsement.

[NewYorkExpress]

First off, unless Republicans dramatically shore up her district, I don't think Ann Wagner is winning reelection, and if Republicans do dramatically move her district to the right, she probably loses a primary to a challenger from her right.

I think she should have jumped into the Senate race.

As for Long, if he can get Trump's endorsement, he'll win the primary. Indeed, whichever candidate can get Trump's endorsement should win the primary.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

First off, unless Republicans dramatically shore up her district, I don't think Ann Wagner is winning reelection, and if Republicans do dramatically move her district to the right, she probably loses a primary to a challenger from her right.

I think she should have jumped into the Senate race.

As for Long, if he can get Trump's endorsement, he'll win the primary. Indeed, whichever candidate can get Trump's endorsement should win the primary.

What's your reasoning behind Wagner not winning re-election..? Most of Atlas believed she would lose by double digits in 2020, but she had a relatively comfortable victory (6 points).

[NewYorkExpress]

First off, unless Republicans dramatically shore up her district, I don't think Ann Wagner is winning reelection, and if Republicans do dramatically move her district to the right, she probably loses a primary to a challenger from her right.

I think she should have jumped into the Senate race.

As for Long, if he can get Trump's endorsement, he'll win the primary. Indeed, whichever candidate can get Trump's endorsement should win the primary.

What's your reasoning behind Wagner not winning re-election..? Most of Atlas believed she would lose by double digits in 2020, but she had a relatively comfortable victory (6 points).

Her current district was the closest in the nation at the top of the ballot.

Trump won it 49.18-49.16.

While Republicans could shore it up, it's very difficult to do without weakening other Republican districts, so it's likely the district stays roughly the same (unless Republicans figure out a way to legally crack St. Louis).

Wagner is probably the most vulnerable Republican in the country for that reason, and if I were advising her politically, I would have said to jump into the Senate race.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

First off, unless Republicans dramatically shore up her district, I don't think Ann Wagner is winning reelection, and if Republicans do dramatically move her district to the right, she probably loses a primary to a challenger from her right.

I think she should have jumped into the Senate race.

As for Long, if he can get Trump's endorsement, he'll win the primary. Indeed, whichever candidate can get Trump's endorsement should win the primary.

What's your reasoning behind Wagner not winning re-election..? Most of Atlas believed she would lose by double digits in 2020, but she had a relatively comfortable victory (6 points).

Her current district was the closest in the nation at the top of the ballot.

Trump won it 49.18-49.16.

While Republicans could shore it up, it's very difficult to do without weakening other Republican districts, so it's likely the district stays roughly the same (unless Republicans figure out a way to legally crack St. Louis).

Wagner is probably the most vulnerable Republican in the country for that reason, and if I were advising her politically, I would have said to jump into the Senate race.

Well, I don't think that's particularly true.. given the fact there's individuals like Mike Garcia, a hardline conservative in a double digit Biden district.

Trump won the 2nd and Wagner herself outran Trump..in a year that will likely be, although not a definite, a better national environment for republicans, I don't see her losing..

[Pollster]

Interestingly, Long has always seemed to do poorly in his primaries by incumbent standards. Even after becoming a loyal Trump footsoldier, he only took 66% in his primary in 2020, and this was the highest share he ever received. In the general elections, he underperformed both Romney and Trump and saw the libertarian candidate receive significant support each time.

I don't know why he seems to have issues with his base, but I'm not sure he's the one I'd bet on.

[Joseph Cao]

First off, unless Republicans dramatically shore up her district, I don't think Ann Wagner is winning reelection, and if Republicans do dramatically move her district to the right, she probably loses a primary to a challenger from her right.

I think she should have jumped into the Senate race.

As for Long, if he can get Trump's endorsement, he'll win the primary. Indeed, whichever candidate can get Trump's endorsement should win the primary.

What's your reasoning behind Wagner not winning re-election..? Most of Atlas believed she would lose by double digits in 2020, but she had a relatively comfortable victory (6 points).

Her current district was the closest in the nation at the top of the ballot.

Trump won it 49.18-49.16.

While Republicans could shore it up, it's very difficult to do without weakening other Republican districts, so it's likely the district stays roughly the same (unless Republicans figure out a way to legally crack St. Louis).

Wagner is probably the most vulnerable Republican in the country for that reason, and if I were advising her politically, I would have said to jump into the Senate race.

At least two things have to happen for Wagner to be the most vulnerable Republican in the country:

- the district does not change in redistricting (and it most certainly will shift at least a good bit right, simply from the Missouri Republican standpoint of self-preservation; you don't even need to crack St. Louis proper to bump it up to a double-digit Trump 2020 district)
- every other vulnerable Republican gets some kind of break. Notably, Malliotakis and Tenney being at risk of getting their districts exploded in New York, Kinzinger facing the same fate plus an inevitable primary, and the Mike Garcia and Young Kim predicaments in districts far more hospitable to Democrats don't seem to play a factor in this reasoning

Wagner might be the most vulnerable Republican of the cycle… in 2028 or 2030 when all the actually vulnerable Republicans are long gone and suburban shifts finally catch up to whatever baseline Likely R district is drawn for her next year, but no earlier.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

First off, unless Republicans dramatically shore up her district, I don't think Ann Wagner is winning reelection, and if Republicans do dramatically move her district to the right, she probably loses a primary to a challenger from her right.

I think she should have jumped into the Senate race.

As for Long, if he can get Trump's endorsement, he'll win the primary. Indeed, whichever candidate can get Trump's endorsement should win the primary.

What's your reasoning behind Wagner not winning re-election..? Most of Atlas believed she would lose by double digits in 2020, but she had a relatively comfortable victory (6 points).

Err…most on Atlas had that as Lean R/Tilt R

[VAR]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1403081325775577094
As shown here, it’s incredibly easy to shore up Ann Wagner without drawing ugly lines and/or endangering nearby GOP-held seats. This is basically guaranteed to happen (even if Republicans decide not to crack Kansas City), and Wagner knows this. So let’s please stop paying attention to NYE’s nonsense.

[MarkD]

Holy cow, I can't believe Jabba wants to be a Senator!
Whatta s***show of a primary the Republicans will have next year: Greitens, Hartzler, Long, and Schmitt -- their cup runneth over!

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1403081325775577094
As shown here, it’s incredibly easy to shore up Ann Wagner without drawing ugly lines and/or endangering nearby GOP-held seats. This is basically guaranteed to happen (even if Republicans decide not to crack Kansas City), and Wagner knows this. So let’s please stop paying attention to NYE’s nonsense.

If the Missouri legislature does adopt a map like that, they will indeed be changing the 2nd District very drastically: over half of Wagner's district will end up being new to her. I'm guessing that Wagner will have only a quarter, or less, of St. Louis County. St. Charles County has not been united into one congressional district since the 1970s (and back then the county had only a fraction of the population it has now), and in this map St. Charles will very heavily dominate the new 2nd District, instead of the 2nd being dominated by St. Louis County, which it had been for several decades. I understand you posted this twitter page just to show us what is possible, but I wonder if a map like that is really what very many Missouri legislators are interested in adopting next year?

[VAR]

I wonder if a map like that is really what very many Missouri legislators are interested in adopting next year?

Probably (unless they want Democrats to flip the seat.)

[Utah Neolib]

If Billy Long is the nominee, he holds the same house seat that Roy Blunt held before he decided to run for senate

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1460367646864543747?t=_ALigr7vBzefPWx9qY...

[Roll Roons]

Wow: https://twitter.com/HafnerMO/status/1492531277383319552

Honestly, in a primary as crowded and uncertain as this one, it could be a big deal.