MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[GALeftist]

I agree that Nixon won't win, but I don't see any reason not to run him. He'll probably do at least a couple points better than generic D, and if there's a huge scandal it's not inconceivable that that would be useful. It's not like there's an opportunity cost, either, since this seat is Safe R regardless.

However, Democrats should not even think about treating this race as competitive in terms of fundraising and advertising unless something Roy Moore tier happens.

[Oryxslayer]

We shouldn't even be having this megathread. Megathreads are for competitive races.

Not everyone only finds who wins between the Republican and the Democrat to be the only interesting part of an election.

The GOP primary is quite literally a clown car with the entire House delegation, a few (former) statewide officials, and an always-online weirdo running.

[Suburbia]

We shouldn't even be having this megathread. Megathreads are for competitive races.

Not everyone only finds who wins between the Republican and the Democrat to be the only interesting part of an election.

You need a megathread for all races. Indiana, Kentucky, Kansas too...

[brucejoel99]

We shouldn't even be having this megathread. Megathreads are for competitive races.

Megathreads merely ensure that there aren't 35 news stories that all pertain to one race clogging up the board. The presumed competitiveness of a race in the general - or, rather, the lack thereof - is wholly irrelevant in the matter.

[Suburbia]

When Jay Nixon was attorney general of Missouri in the 1990s, he handled a school desegregation case badly, and that could potentially cost him a third Senate bid...he lost in 1988 and 1998......

If he wins the nomination, Cori Bush may not endorse him, she may leave the ballot blank and tell her supporters......Nixon would have to make inroads in to his former rural base and excite Black voters to come out in Columbia, STL and KC....basically the Nixon 2008/McCaskill 2006/McCaskill 2012/Koster 2012 map....probably even the Galloway 2018 map....since a lot of Carnahan/McCaskill/Nixon's base are gone....

https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/06/16/cq/missouri.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't gonna win MO anyways, not in a Neutral Environment

[Schiff for Senate]

I have to remark on Blunt's unpopularity, given that it was the original topic of this thread.

Although I think Blunt would be favored in a Biden midterm, with numbers like this it wouldn't surprise me if he decided to retire rather than run for reelection. Blunt's approvals are no better than they were in 2016, when he almost lost to Jason Kander-and was rescued from defeat by Trump. Why exactly has Blunt always been so unpopular?

For the same reasons Mitch McConnell, of neighbouring KY, is: he's an aloof 'insider' who doesn't especially appeal to rural voters (or at least not nearly as much as Trump does), and who's not too good at campaiger (I'd say McConnell's better at it). Pollster describes Blunt's situation best:

Classic Washington insider in a state that despises insider politics in both parties, has a literal family of lobbyists, neither visible in the state (lives in DC and only owns a small condo in Springfield) nor a high-profile frequenter of national media, lackadaisical campaigner who is awkward in person, has a tendency to be very quick to campaign negatively in an off-putting way, uniquely poor rural outreach in a state where statewide candidates need it to be superb.

But there's a problem nonetheless for Missouri Democrats who think they can do the converse of what happened in 2018 (when a long-term Democratic senator lost reelection in a Republican midterm).

Kander run again please

I don't think Kander running or not running (or even Nixon running or not running) while impact the outcome. MO's only become more polarized since 2016 (though Blunt did get a boost because Trump carried the state resoundingly that same day) and 2022 will be a Democratic midterm, which doesn't help Missouri Democrats. I agree with these quotes:

Still safe R

If even Claire McCaskill couldn't win re-election in 2018, there's no way any Democrat beats Roy Blunt in 2022, especially if Biden is President. Sorry, this one won't be too interesting.

Returning to the McConnell example - he's unpopular, but he's unpopular the same way Trump's unpopular with some suburban/religious voters (the word 'some' being key): they don't like him much as a person, and would prefer someone else, but they'll hold their nose and vote for him since he represents their interests (or at least more than his opponent does) and/or is better than a Democrat. There was noise that McGrath could beat McConnell, but funding doesn't cut it. McConnell's one of the most unpopular senators in the country, but KY's too red and too polarized to vote blue in a general election (gubernatorial elections are very different froms senatorial elections, especially in KY), and McConnell's too powerful to lose a primary. (Not that it matters - I think this term's going to be his last; he's in his seventh term.) Similarly, Kander and Nixon will also lose to Blunt. And a primary challenge, though it may gain a little traction, will fall flat at the end of the day.

Honestly, what'd be most interesting is what's about to happen - an open primary contest to determine Blunt's (Republican, doubtless) successor, since Blunt would win in both a primary and general, with his experience and establishment-ness being both a strength and weakness.

[Schiff for Senate]

When Jay Nixon was attorney general of Missouri in the 1990s, he handled a school desegregation case badly, and that could potentially cost him a third Senate bid...he lost in 1988 and 1998......

If he wins the nomination, Cori Bush may not endorse him, she may leave the ballot blank and tell her supporters......Nixon would have to make inroads in to his former rural base and excite Black voters to come out in Columbia, STL and KC....basically the Nixon 2008/McCaskill 2006/McCaskill 2012/Koster 2012 map....probably even the Galloway 2018 map....since a lot of Carnahan/McCaskill/Nixon's base are gone....

https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/06/16/cq/missouri.html

What about Obama 2008's map? He nearly won Missouri, and if the urban/suburban margin could be expanded slightly, that could mean victory. (Of course, it's unlikely that map gets regenerated again in 2022.)

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Fun fact that Jay Nixon's last moment in the spotlight was when he legally defended notorious and disgraced televangelist Jim Bakker for selling a phony coronavirus cure last year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Blks endorsed Biden whom had sexual misconduct with Tara Reade and was coy about Anita Hill and allowed Clarence Thomas on the SCOTUS by pushing him to floor vote as Chairman of Judiciary committee


Biden has also defended the segregationist tool the Filibuster, Biden took part of segregation by praising a segregationist, Biden doesn't have clean hands on this either

[Suburbia]

When Jay Nixon was attorney general of Missouri in the 1990s, he handled a school desegregation case badly, and that could potentially cost him a third Senate bid...he lost in 1988 and 1998......

If he wins the nomination, Cori Bush may not endorse him, she may leave the ballot blank and tell her supporters......Nixon would have to make inroads in to his former rural base and excite Black voters to come out in Columbia, STL and KC....basically the Nixon 2008/McCaskill 2006/McCaskill 2012/Koster 2012 map....probably even the Galloway 2018 map....since a lot of Carnahan/McCaskill/Nixon's base are gone....

https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/06/16/cq/missouri.html

What about Obama 2008's map? He nearly won Missouri, and if the urban/suburban margin could be expanded slightly, that could mean victory. (Of course, it's unlikely that map gets regenerated again in 2022.)

Maybe. Nixon should not run, he is too outdated for the state, probably. The Dems should just run with Lucas Kunce or someone like that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He is running as I said before most politicians even Biden and Teddy Kennedy advanced Clarence Thomas along with Arlen Specter and Fritz Hollings to the floor in a D lead Judicial Committee and didn't Filibuster Clarence Thomas in 1991

So, even Teddy Kennedy affirmed Clarence Thomas by advancing him to the floor eventhough he voted against him in the end like Biden

52/48

Biden is Bill Clinton both were uneasy about the Filibuster that's why Clinton didn't try to advance Health care reform or Reparations back during 90s and both had sexual predictor allegations Tara Reade Biden and Lewinsky for Clinton

Biden did rape Reade but it was shoved by the media just like Trump sexual predictor affair

[Schiff for Senate]

When Jay Nixon was attorney general of Missouri in the 1990s, he handled a school desegregation case badly, and that could potentially cost him a third Senate bid...he lost in 1988 and 1998......

If he wins the nomination, Cori Bush may not endorse him, she may leave the ballot blank and tell her supporters......Nixon would have to make inroads in to his former rural base and excite Black voters to come out in Columbia, STL and KC....basically the Nixon 2008/McCaskill 2006/McCaskill 2012/Koster 2012 map....probably even the Galloway 2018 map....since a lot of Carnahan/McCaskill/Nixon's base are gone....

https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/06/16/cq/missouri.html

What about Obama 2008's map? He nearly won Missouri, and if the urban/suburban margin could be expanded slightly, that could mean victory. (Of course, it's unlikely that map gets regenerated again in 2022.)

Maybe. Nixon should not run, he is too outdated for the state, probably. The Dems should just run with Lucas Kunce or someone like that.

Agreed. But I don't think any Democrat can win in 2022, and Nixon may be able to narrow the margin. It's not like running will cost him a House seat or anything since he's in retirement. I think I want Nixon to run to see how he performs in rural areas that he won as governor. Will he do as poorly as Clinton and Biden? As well as he did as governor (most likely not)? What will be the result in suburban/rural areas? On the other hand, if they nominate a generic Democrat like Kunce, the results will be similarly generic, with the GOP winning by around 17 points. With Nixon it will be interesting to also see the overall margin of GOP victory (as I said - even Nixon can't resuce the Missouri Democrats; so it's really a question of the GOP margin). It will probably be 10-15 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here we go again D's can't win, we don't know what will happen in 2022, we just know what will happen in 2021 in an Election 500 days

It's wave insurance

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/1420784776231936000 Don't have Nixon to kick around anymore.

[Gracile]

Nixon didn’t have a chance to begin with.

[Lambsbread]

KUNCEMENTUM

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's have zero chance in MO anyways

[Suburbia]

Kunce can lose by 15 points or so....

Will any of the Carnahans run, or are they finished in politics like Nixon and McCaskill?

What about Chris Koster?

Likely R/Safe R...

It's shameful how red MO has moved since 2000

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Biden sitting at 50(45 Approvals the same exact Approvals he had on Election night it's a Neutral Environment, and D's aren't gonna crack the red wall, I went on Tim Ryan website to donate, it's blocked, OH is Likely R went from a Tossup

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lucas Kunce probably got picked on so badly in grade school...

[Calthrina950]

Nixon didn’t have a chance to begin with.

Nixon seems to have recognized this, and probably kept in mind what happened to Bayh, Bredesen, Strickland, and Bullock-all former Governors who lost Senate races by double digits in their now staunchly Republican states.

[Suburbia]

Nixon didn’t have a chance to begin with.

Nixon seems to have recognized this, and probably kept in mind what happened to Bayh, Bredesen, Strickland, and Bullock-all former Governors who lost Senate races by double digits in their now staunchly Republican states.

This.

Does any of the Carnahans run? Koster? Montee? Francis Slay?

[Calthrina950]

Nixon didn’t have a chance to begin with.

Nixon seems to have recognized this, and probably kept in mind what happened to Bayh, Bredesen, Strickland, and Bullock-all former Governors who lost Senate races by double digits in their now staunchly Republican states.

This.

Does any of the Carnahans run? Koster? Montee? Francis Slay?

I know nothing about the last two individuals you list, but I'd imagine that the Carnahans and Koster stay out, as they've been defeated in recent years, and would be defeated again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we so worried about this seat and we have IA, OH and NC