MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares,. greitans is the worse candidate

[Galeel]

I have no idea whether Greitens will win the primary or not, but I have a hard time imagining him losing in the general if he does.

[jamestroll]

There is perhaps some precedent for Missouri rejecting flawed GOP nominees. See MO-Sen 2012, MO-Auditor 2018.

But I am not convinced that Greitens will be the nominee yet but if he is.. damn he is still favored heavily.

Something that is not mentioned much is that part of the Democrats major downfall in Missouri has to do with suburbs and exurban areas. Yes, the St. Louis County suburbs in MO-02 have become more friendly to the Democrats.

I remember when Democrats used to win Jefferson County and all the counties around Kansas City and Buchanan County, MO with relative ease even when the Democratic statewide victory was narrow. Now they are not really competitive in any other those counties. Plus statewide Republicans swept Platte, Clay, and St Charles counties by double digits. Yikes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The background checks in Boulder on guns is gonna resurrect the freiwall again, D's aren't winning MO based on gun control

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Greitens was actually as unpopular in the wake of his sexual predation and felony charges as he seemed to be then why would he be the frontrunner? Has he had a resurgence in popularity since then?

I think it's mostly due to rock bottom expectations for Republican primary voters' preferences, which is completely justifiable.

[ꙮ]

I don't have any illusions about this race being competitive, but it certainly seems like Dems would be more likely to win if Greitins were the nominee (1% chance vs. 2% chance).

[Bootes Void]

Greitens is very unlikely to be the nominee, Hawley hates him so you can probably rule out a Trump endorsement for him. At the best he will get 20%.

why would Trump care about what Hawley thinks?anyways Grietens will get trump's support in the senate

[Frenchrepublican]

Greitens is very unlikely to be the nominee, Hawley hates him so you can probably rule out a Trump endorsement for him. At the best he will get 20%.

why would Trump care about what Hawley thinks?anyways Grietens will get trump's support in the senate

Because Trump listen to Hawley as he is one of the few senator he trusts.

[juulze68]

This is going to be Kansas 2020 all over again. Eric Schmitt is the Roger Marshall of MO.

[SnowLabrador]

This is going to be Kansas 2020 all over again. Eric Schmitt is the Roger Marshall of MO.

Pretty much. Even if Greitens is the nominee, which he won't be, he will win by double digits.

[Frenchrepublican]

This is going to be Kansas 2020 all over again. Eric Schmitt is the Roger Marshall of MO.

Except that the GOP's winning margin will be much larger, Bollier still had trends in her favour, besides she didn't had to face a hostile national climate.

[Hope For A New Era]

Plus statewide Republicans swept Platte, Clay, and St Charles counties by double digits. Yikes.

But Trump didn't.

Who are the suburban moderates going to associate Greitens with? It's not going to be Friendly Generic R Ashcroft, that's for sure.

My suburban educated white-collar (insert other realignment buzzwords here) parents have voted for exactly one Democrat in the past ten years and his name was Chris Koster.

Of course, watch this all go out the window because of sheer polarization. What a sad state this country is in.

With Blunt retiring and so many House members potentially running in this primary, it's very possible that a majority of MO's congressional delegation will be freshmen in 2023. Possibly a huge blow to the state's federal influence due to seniority.

In a sane world I'd be excited about the possibility of Hartzler being gone, but the way things are going she'll probably be replaced with someone even worse.

Jungle Primaries Now!

[Pollster]

My suburban educated white-collar (insert other realignment buzzwords here) parents have voted for exactly one Democrat in the past ten years and his name was Chris Koster.

Not Kander in 2016 or Galloway in 18? Or even McCaskill?

[Frenchrepublican]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/545386-trump-pollster-greitens-leads-big-in-missouri-gop-senate-primary

Former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) has a nearly 40-point lead over the next closest contender in the GOP Senate primary, according to an internal survey conducted by former President Trump’s pollster.

The survey of 400 GOP primary voters, which was commissioned by the Greitens campaign, finds him at 48 percent support, followed by state attorney general Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) at 11 percent. Schmitt is the only other announced candidate, but Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.) pulls 9 percent support and Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) clocks in at 7 percent in the poll. Twenty-six percent of GOP primary voters said they’re undecided.

The survey was conducted by Trump’s pollsters Tony Fabrizio, David Lee and Travis Tunis.

Greitens jumped into the race last week following Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-Mo.) decision to retire. The move came nearly three years after he resigned as governor amid allegations he photographed a woman in the nude without consent as part of an effort to hide an extramarital affair. Greitens admitted to having an affair with the woman but denied the allegations of blackmail. The charges against him were later dropped and a Missouri panel "found no evidence of wrongdoing. "Some establishment Republicans have warned the scandal could drag Greitens down in the general election and hand Democrats what should be a safely Republican seat. But the Fabrizio poll finds Greitens with widespread support among Republicans heading into the primary.

Greitens’s favorability rating is at 64 percent positive and 20 percent negative. “This is not a case of winning simply based on higher name ID,” Fabrizio wrote. “Greitens is truly the preferred choice on an even playing field.”

Trump remains hugely popular among Missouri Republicans, with 84 percent viewing him favorably.The poll found Greitens has support from 55 percent of those who view Trump favorably.Trump has not endorsed in the race but intends to play in scores of primary contests happening across the country.“He has the ability to be a force in this campaign if he so chooses,” Fabrizio wrote.

The Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey of 400 GOP primary voters was conducted between March 23 and March 25 and has a 4.9 percentage point margin of error.

[Young Conservative]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/545386-trump-pollster-greitens-leads-big-in-missouri-gop-senate-primary

Former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) has a nearly 40-point lead over the next closest contender in the GOP Senate primary, according to an internal survey conducted by former President Trump’s pollster.

The survey of 400 GOP primary voters, which was commissioned by the Greitens campaign, finds him at 48 percent support, followed by state attorney general Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) at 11 percent. Schmitt is the only other announced candidate, but Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.) pulls 9 percent support and Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) clocks in at 7 percent in the poll. Twenty-six percent of GOP primary voters said they’re undecided.

The survey was conducted by Trump’s pollsters Tony Fabrizio, David Lee and Travis Tunis.

Greitens jumped into the race last week following Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-Mo.) decision to retire. The move came nearly three years after he resigned as governor amid allegations he photographed a woman in the nude without consent as part of an effort to hide an extramarital affair. Greitens admitted to having an affair with the woman but denied the allegations of blackmail. The charges against him were later dropped and a Missouri panel "found no evidence of wrongdoing. "Some establishment Republicans have warned the scandal could drag Greitens down in the general election and hand Democrats what should be a safely Republican seat. But the Fabrizio poll finds Greitens with widespread support among Republicans heading into the primary.

Greitens’s favorability rating is at 64 percent positive and 20 percent negative. “This is not a case of winning simply based on higher name ID,” Fabrizio wrote. “Greitens is truly the preferred choice on an even playing field.”

Trump remains hugely popular among Missouri Republicans, with 84 percent viewing him favorably.The poll found Greitens has support from 55 percent of those who view Trump favorably.Trump has not endorsed in the race but intends to play in scores of primary contests happening across the country.“He has the ability to be a force in this campaign if he so chooses,” Fabrizio wrote.

The Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey of 400 GOP primary voters was conducted between March 23 and March 25 and has a 4.9 percentage point margin of error.

LOL trash

[Frenchrepublican]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/545386-trump-pollster-greitens-leads-big-in-missouri-gop-senate-primary

Former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) has a nearly 40-point lead over the next closest contender in the GOP Senate primary, according to an internal survey conducted by former President Trump’s pollster.

The survey of 400 GOP primary voters, which was commissioned by the Greitens campaign, finds him at 48 percent support, followed by state attorney general Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) at 11 percent. Schmitt is the only other announced candidate, but Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.) pulls 9 percent support and Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) clocks in at 7 percent in the poll. Twenty-six percent of GOP primary voters said they’re undecided.

The survey was conducted by Trump’s pollsters Tony Fabrizio, David Lee and Travis Tunis.

Greitens jumped into the race last week following Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-Mo.) decision to retire. The move came nearly three years after he resigned as governor amid allegations he photographed a woman in the nude without consent as part of an effort to hide an extramarital affair. Greitens admitted to having an affair with the woman but denied the allegations of blackmail. The charges against him were later dropped and a Missouri panel "found no evidence of wrongdoing. "Some establishment Republicans have warned the scandal could drag Greitens down in the general election and hand Democrats what should be a safely Republican seat. But the Fabrizio poll finds Greitens with widespread support among Republicans heading into the primary.

Greitens’s favorability rating is at 64 percent positive and 20 percent negative. “This is not a case of winning simply based on higher name ID,” Fabrizio wrote. “Greitens is truly the preferred choice on an even playing field.”

Trump remains hugely popular among Missouri Republicans, with 84 percent viewing him favorably.The poll found Greitens has support from 55 percent of those who view Trump favorably.Trump has not endorsed in the race but intends to play in scores of primary contests happening across the country.“He has the ability to be a force in this campaign if he so chooses,” Fabrizio wrote.

The Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey of 400 GOP primary voters was conducted between March 23 and March 25 and has a 4.9 percentage point margin of error.

LOL trash

It's an internal sure, but Fabrizio is a good pollster. Obviously it remains to be seen how these numbers will evolve once he will have faced millions of dollars worth of negative ads.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't see how Eric isn't the nominee. And he should easily win. The charges against him were dropped.

He will likely win by 10+ in the GE and coast through the primary. Hell, I could see him winning by over 20% if dems just constantly attack him over the accusations

[Hope For A New Era]

My suburban educated white-collar (insert other realignment buzzwords here) parents have voted for exactly one Democrat in the past ten years and his name was Chris Koster.

Not Kander in 2016 or Galloway in 18? Or even McCaskill?

Lived outside Missouri for a five-year period from mid-2010 to mid-2015, so they didn't have to worry about who to vote for in 2012. I'm pretty sure they would have voted third-party.

They liked that Koster went on and on about how "fiscally conservative" he was in his ads.

[Stuart98]

Greitens is the Kobach 2020 of this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

French Republican puts all these long post about how Rs are gonna win and we got 1400 and getting UBI benefits from Unemployment extension 18M, are gonna go into Atlas users from Prez Biden that even Rs got and he was wrong about GA, you think he would have learned, everything isn't about 2018 it's about 2008 and 2012


I bet the very ones trying to get D's out of office, since more Rs work than D are on extended Unemployment benefits, give back your benefits if you are not satisfied which they wont do

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1377383608940257282

I know most people here do not like Miles but.. he is right.

Stunning how insanely to the right Missouri has moved.

[jamestroll]

I made this point elsewhere but ..



Look at my birth state, Missouri. Look at my current state, Virginia. Keeping in mind that Virginia is only 19% black and much of that population lives in Hampton Roads and Richmond.

Now look at the upper midwest and Biden's narrow victories.

Democrats must not and can not entirely abandon rural areas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is more winnable than MO, since CRIST is gonna run and Gaetz story will hurt R prospects in sunshine state

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think a couple of months ago I saw some suggestion that Clint Zweifel, the former state Treasurer, was being courted as the Democratic candidate in this race.  He's probably the only Democrat who could make this even close to competitive.  Anybody heard any new word on this?

[Calthrina950]

I watched Blunt's interview on This Week with George Stephanopoulos yesterday, and in a way, it's easy for me to understand why the Republican base doesn't seem to particularly like him. He very much comes across as a boring, generic, establishment Republican who gives platitudes about "working across the aisle" with Democrats and who doesn't say anything crazy or conspiratorial-laden. Many Trumpists desire officeholders who are confrontational and who grandstand in their media appearances.