MO-SEN 2022 megathread: ERIC

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1374123973349404676

Ugh I hate all the false hope I’m getting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's probably have enough targets with the exception of FL and Crust and Stephanie Murphy, D's probably all set with 54/46 Senate map but can get to 55/45

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The GOP's best hope is for Jason Smith to run and get a Trump endorsement.

[gerritcole]

moderates like alan wheat/russ carnahan/joan kelly horn keep the loss to less than 20

[Coldstream]

Greitens is worse than Akin and as bad as Roy Moore, so I don’t think it’s out of the question if he’s the nominee the Democrats could win the seat. Though I doubt he can win a primary.

[Skye]

Remember when disastrous GOP candidates could lose by double-digits in this state not so long ago? Good times.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Greitens is worse than Akin and as bad as Roy Moore, so I don’t think it’s out of the question if he’s the nominee the Democrats could win the seat. Though I doubt he can win a primary.

I am interested in Charles Booker running, Paul made a silly comment about AA dropping out of HS due to minimium wage and the Minimum wage isn't keeping out of Housing cost and most parents won't let their kids stay with them if they drop out of HS. Booker can capitalize on that comment

Beshear is popular and this isn't 2020 with Mcconnell

[Hope For A New Era]

Remember when disastrous GOP candidates could lose by double-digits in this state not so long ago? Good times.

I believe Greitens could have lost in 2020 if the legislature had somehow decided not to impeach him. His approval had fallen into the 30s by March 2018. I imagine it was probably even lower by the time he resigned.

It would have been a narrow loss, but he would have been very defeatable.

[brucejoel99]

Remember when disastrous GOP candidates could lose by double-digits in this state not so long ago? Good times.

I believe Greitens could have lost in 2020 if the legislature had somehow decided not to impeach him. His approval had fallen into the 30s by March 2018. I imagine it was probably even lower by the time he resigned.

It would have been a narrow loss, but he would have been very defeatable.

More than 2-&-a-1/2 years is a long time, though. For all we know, he could just as easily have Northam'd himself.

[Lambsbread]

It kinda sucks that a more effective attack on Greitens during the primary will be the fact that he was a Democrat as recently as 2015.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is wave insurence anyways, MO

[MT Treasurer]

Not entirely convinced that Greitens will be the nominee yet, but if he does end up winning the nomination, it’s going to be so humiliating for Roy Blunt to watch Greitens of all people outperform his 2016 result by a lot.

[2016]

All Republican Senate Retirements for 2022 are Lean to Likely R except for Pennsylvania. The only way Democrats will have the Senate after next years Midterm Elections is if they pass D. C. and Puerto Rico Statehood which explains why they are pushing so hard for this in the House.

These Socialist Clowns want a total Power Grab for the next Decade. It remains how this will play out over the next 18 months with the Average American Voter.

[Hope For A New Era]

Remember when disastrous GOP candidates could lose by double-digits in this state not so long ago? Good times.

I believe Greitens could have lost in 2020 if the legislature had somehow decided not to impeach him. His approval had fallen into the 30s by March 2018. I imagine it was probably even lower by the time he resigned.

It would have been a narrow loss, but he would have been very defeatable.

More than 2-&-a-1/2 years is a long time, though. For all we know, he could just as easily have Northam'd himself.

This is Greitens we're talking about. He's extremely Trumpy in every way. I don't think he is capable of staying quiet and letting it blow over. His resignation speech was very passive-aggressive. He would have been loudly playing the victim for the rest of his governorship and would have never let anyone forget it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All Republican Senate Retirements for 2022 are Lean to Likely R except for Pennsylvania. The only way Democrats will have the Senate after next years Midterm Elections is if they pass D. C. and Puerto Rico Statehood which explains why they are pushing so hard for this in the House.

These Socialist Clowns want a total Power Grab for the next Decade. It remains how this will play out over the next 18 months with the Average American Voter.

The Rs already stacked the Crts with 300 Judges, of course it's a power grab 2016, just like Rs made the power grab with Garland being blocked

[sting in the rafters]

More gone R than a Carpenter dinger at Busch. Missouri's population 41% conservative and 20% liberal. That's a feasible win for a state with a below-average white population like Georgia or AZ. It's impossible for an 82% white VAP state like Missouri. Floor of R+6 and probably double digits in a midterm year.


The only possible silver lining I can see is if the new Voting Rights Act passes and absolutely everything goes right for the Ds, a weak R-candidate for Senate might just be enough for a Dem to sneak over the finish line in the district created in the St. Louis suburbs.

[DaleCooper]

If Greitens was actually as unpopular in the wake of his sexual predation and felony charges as he seemed to be then why would he be the frontrunner? Has he had a resurgence in popularity since then?

[Roll Roons]

If Greitens was actually as unpopular in the wake of his sexual predation and felony charges as he seemed to be then why would he be the frontrunner? Has he had a resurgence in popularity since then?

Because people seem to think that no matter what, the base will always gravitate towards the most deplorable candidate in a GOP primary.

[Hope For A New Era]

If Greitens was actually as unpopular in the wake of his sexual predation and felony charges as he seemed to be then why would he be the frontrunner? Has he had a resurgence in popularity since then?

Who says he's the frontrunner?

Because people seem to think that no matter what, the base will always gravitate towards the most deplorable candidate in a GOP primary.

It's no guarantee, but it's a surprise when they don't. The ND-GOV 2016 primary is still a mystery to me.

[DaleCooper]

If Greitens was actually as unpopular in the wake of his sexual predation and felony charges as he seemed to be then why would he be the frontrunner? Has he had a resurgence in popularity since then?

Who says he's the frontrunner?

Because people seem to think that no matter what, the base will always gravitate towards the most deplorable candidate in a GOP primary.

It's no guarantee, but it's a surprise when they don't. The ND-GOV 2016 primary is still a mystery to me.

Him the being the frontrunner seemed to be the consensus of a sizable portion of the replies here. But what I'm saying is that I thought opposition to Greitens was quite bipartisan so why would he be so strong in the Republican primary? He should be pretty easy to beat if they set their minds to it.

[Frenchrepublican]

Greitens is very unlikely to be the nominee, Hawley hates him so you can probably rule out a Trump endorsement for him. At the best he will get 20%.

[Oryxslayer]

Like I said on the previous page, literally the everyone in the Missouri GOP is looking at this race. There's a consensus among those aware of this fact off this site that the race will be a sh*tshow like one of those recent open East TN or MA House district primaries. Its hard to have a frontrunner in this situation, and one traditionally expects the earlier-to-announce candidates to be the weaker ones. The earlier one announces the more likely one scare out potential entrants or attract supporters and money, things stronger candidates can obtain easier and therefore have the luxury of entering at their preferred time.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1374693149684162560

[Pollster]

With Blunt retiring and so many House members potentially running in this primary, it's very possible that a majority of MO's congressional delegation will be freshmen in 2023. Possibly a huge blow to the state's federal influence due to seniority.

[Roll Roons]

I see Greitens has got some game-changing endorsements:

https://twitter.com/TeamGreitens/status/1374197372625035267

https://twitter.com/TeamGreitens/status/1374415565297655810