IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll thread: Biden +4, Biden +5 in head-to-head

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This thread's title will be updated regularly with the current margins.

https://www.investors.com/news/biden-vs-trump-joe-biden-leads-donald-trump-by-8-6-points-ibd-tipp-2020-election-poll/

https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/

October 8-12
937 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%
Changes with October 7-11; trends calculated pre-rounding

Biden 51% (-1)
Trump 42% (-1)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Other 1% (n/c)
Not sure 1% (+1)

Head-to-head:
Biden 51%
Trump 42%

[Sir Mohamed]

Interesting the head-to-head number doesn't move compared to 3rd vote options. Anyway, poll seems to line up with everything we've been seeing for weeks now. Biden up between 8 and 12 on average and #over50.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 9-13
866 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Trends and margins (+8 in both cases) calculated pre-rounding

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 43% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Other 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Not sure 1% (n/c)

Head-to-head:
Biden 50%  (-1)
Trump 43% (n/c)

[VAR]

Biden 50% (-1)
Trump 42% (-1)
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%

H2H:

Biden 50%
Trump 42% (-1)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pre-rounding changes/margin: Biden +8%
Biden 50% (-1)
Trump 42% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Other 1% (n/c)
Not sure 1% (n/c)
Two-way:
Biden 50% (n/c)
Trump 42% (-1)

[Sir Mohamed]

Mr. Trump is stuck in the low 40s. Just sayin'.

[Horus]

10/16

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 44% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Hawkins 1%

H2H:

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 43% (+1)

Remember that Biden was only +3 with these guys in their last release before they began the tracking poll. However, there has clearly been a trend towards Trump over the last day or two, made clear in the USC tracker and this one.

[Rand]

Mr. Trump is stuck in the low 40s. Just sayin'.

Mr. Biden is stuck in the low 50s. Just sayin’.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Remember that Biden was only +3 with these guys in their last release before they began the tracking poll. However, there has clearly been a trend towards Trump over the last day or two, made clear in the USC tracker and this one.

Trump always narrows the gap a little whenever he hasn't said or done anything particularly outrageous in a few days. We'll see what people's reactions to his town hall last night have in store.

[Buzz]

ACB bump

[Gass3268]

10/16

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 44% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Hawkins 1%

H2H:

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 43% (+1)

Remember that Biden was only +3 with these guys in their last release before they began the tracking poll. However, there has clearly been a trend towards Trump over the last day or two, made clear in the USC tracker and this one.

There were literally three other national polls today with a Biden gaining (AP, KFF, and Navigator).

[wbrocks67]

10/16

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 44% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Hawkins 1%

H2H:

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 43% (+1)

Remember that Biden was only +3 with these guys in their last release before they began the tracking poll. However, there has clearly been a trend towards Trump over the last day or two, made clear in the USC tracker and this one.

There were literally three other national polls today with a Biden gaining (AP, KFF, and Navigator).

Also the USC poll usually oscillates between 0.3-0.5 changes like every 4/5 days.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

ACB bump

I fear you may be right, but I doubt it.

[Horus]

10/16

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 44% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Hawkins 1%

H2H:

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 43% (+1)

Remember that Biden was only +3 with these guys in their last release before they began the tracking poll. However, there has clearly been a trend towards Trump over the last day or two, made clear in the USC tracker and this one.

There were literally three other national polls today with a Biden gaining (AP, KFF, and Navigator).

None as recent as the trackers. KFF isn't really that great, Navigator is a D pollster and AP poll was only of adults not RVs or LVs.

I'm not saying this is the margin but trackers are good at picking up daily shifts, and whether he's down 5 or 15, Trump's numbers have improved since Wednesday.

[Brittain33]

Remember that IBD was Biden +3 within recent weeks, too.

[wbrocks67]

It doesn't really seem to be on the up and up that we've now encountered a 3pt swing in a single day.

[Senator-elect Spark]

10/16

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 44% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Hawkins 1%

H2H:

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 43% (+1)

Remember that Biden was only +3 with these guys in their last release before they began the tracking poll. However, there has clearly been a trend towards Trump over the last day or two, made clear in the USC tracker and this one.

About what I expect.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pre-rounding margins and changes:

Biden +5%
Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 44% (+1)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Other 1% (n/c)
Not sure 1% (n/c)

Two-way:

Biden +6%
Biden  49% (-1)
Trump 43% (+1)

[Person Man]

ACB bump

I fear you may be right, but I doubt it.

So what? A narrative about abortion is emerging?

[kph14]

It doesn't really seem to be on the up and up that we've now encountered a 3pt swing in a single day.

Noise.

[VAR]

Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 43% (-1)
Jorgensen 2% (-1)
Hawkins 1%

H2H:
Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 43% (n/c)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pre-rounding changes and margins:
Biden +7%
Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 43% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Other 1% (n/c)
Not sure 1% (n/c)

Head-to-head: Biden +8%
Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 43% (n/c)

[Lief 🗽]

The Biden telling that CBS vulture to f[inks] off and die bump 👀

[BobbieMac]

Honestly tracking polls are basically useless.

[Hammy]

Honestly tracking polls are basically useless.

They're good for trends, same as they were in 2016. This poll however (as with 2016) is likely over-polling Republicans as it's the same one that had Trump +3 or so during most of 2016.