Pennsylvania is obviously long gone. Trump needs to focus on Wisconsin+Arizona for his victory play.
Provided I'm reading it right, JHK Forecast's Presidential Election Manipulator says that a map where Biden wins all 2016 Clinton states+MI+PA (and Trump hangs onto his 2016 map -- including AZ+WI+NE-02) appears in just 0.3% (or 53 out of 20000 simulations).
Of course, this isn't anywhere near an exact predictive science, but yeah: Trump almost certainly loses the election if he doesn't get MI and PA.
