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October 24, 2020, 01:42:25 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  PA (Trafalgar): Biden +2
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Author Topic: PA (Trafalgar): Biden +2  (Read 440 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: October 13, 2020, 08:16:38 AM »

Biden 47
Trump 45

Try as they may, they still can't find a Trump lead in PA! Sad!

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1316000421085933568?s=20
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Stuart98
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2020, 08:17:28 AM »

Confirms it's actually D+8.
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The scissors of false economy
Nathan
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2020, 08:19:54 AM »

Likely Biden, closer to Safe than Lean.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2020, 08:26:11 AM »

Thank you Trafalgar, very cool!
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Buzz
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2020, 08:26:29 AM »

Pennsylvania is obviously long gone.  Trump needs to focus on Wisconsin+Arizona for his victory play.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2020, 08:37:55 AM »

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zZdYPhVEQQ9ZATepZLjVA-RZbwMCoLuQ/view

October 10-12
1034 likely voters
MoE: 2.97%
First set of changes with September 15-17 poll (not for a partisan sponsor) and second set of changes with September 18-21 poll for the Restoration PAC (a partisan sponsor)
Trends calculated pre-rounding

Biden 47% (n/c, -1)
Trump 45% (n/c, -1)
Jorgensen 3% (+1, +2)
Someone else 3% (+1, +1)
Undecided 2% (-1, n/c)

Hawkins previously at 1% in both surveys.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2020, 08:41:27 AM »

Pennsylvania is obviously long gone.  Trump needs to focus on Wisconsin+Arizona for his victory play.

Provided I'm reading it right, JHK Forecast's Presidential Election Manipulator says that a map where Biden wins all 2016 Clinton states+MI+PA (and Trump hangs onto his 2016 map -- including AZ+WI+NE-02) appears in just 0.3% (or 53 out of 20000 simulations).  

Of course, this isn't anywhere near an exact predictive science, but yeah: Trump almost certainly loses the election if he doesn't get MI and PA.  
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Buzz
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2020, 08:46:22 AM »

Pennsylvania is obviously long gone.  Trump needs to focus on Wisconsin+Arizona for his victory play.

Provided I'm reading it right, JHK Forecast's Presidential Election Manipulator says that a map where Biden wins all 2016 Clinton states+MI+PA (and Trump hangs onto his 2016 map -- including AZ+WI+NE-02) appears in just 0.3% (or 53 out of 20000 simulations).  

Of course, this isn't anywhere near an exact predictive science, but yeah: Trump almost certainly loses the election if he doesn't get MI and PA.  
Yep, things look pretty bleak for Trump right now.  I only say AZ + WI because he has had some better polls in AZ lately and that Marquette poll last week showed he still had a path in Wisconsin. 
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2020, 08:59:39 AM »

Trafalgar doesn't inflate R polls like media polls that show Biden plus 10 leads
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You Reap What You Sow
Rafe
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2020, 09:07:37 AM »

Bad things happen in Philadelphia.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2020, 10:09:40 AM »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-10-12

Summary: D: 47%, R: 45%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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