SC-01 GQR Research/DCCC (D): Cunningham +13

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/13/house-republicans-2020-outlook-429130

Privately, Republicans concede their chances of reclaiming Cunningham's coastal South Carolina district are dimming. He's leading Republican Nancy Mace by a staggering 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent, according to an early October poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the independent-expenditure arm of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and shared with POLITICO. And he has even managed to outflank Mace on the right, warning she will raise taxes 23 percent on prescription drugs and groceries.

[VAR]

NUT

Also,

Trump won the seat by 13 points in 2016. But he is polling significantly lower now. "It’s definitely not the margin that he had last time against Hillary," Cunningham said.

Top Democratic operatives appear more worried about holding a rural seat in southern New Mexico held by Torres Small, another vulnerable freshman. Recent polling shows a virtually tied race, and Republicans are dumping money on ads casting her as an acolyte of Speaker Nancy Pelosi who won't support the state's oil and gas industry.

Meanwhile, Democrats are feeling more optimistic about a Richmond, Va.-area seat held by Spanberger.

Ironically, Democrats are growing increasingly nervous about two members in seats that Clinton won by double digits in 2016: Rep. TJ Cox in California's Central Valley and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in South Florida.

In the closing weeks, national Republicans have begun to hone in on crime, warning in countless ads that Democrats plan to "defund the police." And they are most optimistic about this line of attack in the Staten Island-based district with a heavy law-enforcement presence, where Rose is locked in a tight race with state Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis.

In most well-educated suburban districts, Trump is proving just as burdensome as he was in the 2018 midterms. In Oklahoma's 5th District, Horn shocked the political world by upsetting an unprepared incumbent. Trump won the seat by 13 points, but some private polling now indicates a tight presidential contest there.

[wbrocks67]

The CA-21 stuff... they're really falling into this trap again

[SnowLabrador]

Cunningham will probably win, but not by this much.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

538 says this one was conducted October 5-7 and that its sample size is 400 likely voters

[Torrain]

Great to see, a solid Cunningham win in SC-01 could do wonders for the Senate race.

[Yellowhammer]

Titanium D

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'd be surprised if he won by 13, but I think he'll win. SC-01 is going to turn hard left this cycle. I wouldn't be shocked if Biden carries here as well. It's full of lots of college educated whites and has a sizable AA population.

[Hope For A New Era]

All of the 2018 surprise wins in R-leaning districts are safe except OK-05.

[Calthrina950]

All of the 2018 surprise wins in R-leaning districts are safe except OK-05.

What about NM-02, which is mentioned as an area of concern for the Democrats?

[Pollster]

All of the 2018 surprise wins in R-leaning districts are safe except OK-05.

What about NM-02, which is mentioned as an area of concern for the Democrats?

The blurb on this district is written in a predictably alarmist way - XTS fits the district like a glove and is massively outspending Herrell in a district filled with difficult-to-poll populations and where the Presidential race will certainly narrow from 2016. Important to remember that she won this district with Steve Pearce on the ballot.

[Ferguson97]

Joe 🤝 Cal

Being named Cunningham and winning a race in a Carolina

[wbrocks67]

NUT

Also,

Trump won the seat by 13 points in 2016. But he is polling significantly lower now. "It’s definitely not the margin that he had last time against Hillary," Cunningham said.

Top Democratic operatives appear more worried about holding a rural seat in southern New Mexico held by Torres Small, another vulnerable freshman. Recent polling shows a virtually tied race, and Republicans are dumping money on ads casting her as an acolyte of Speaker Nancy Pelosi who won't support the state's oil and gas industry.

Meanwhile, Democrats are feeling more optimistic about a Richmond, Va.-area seat held by Spanberger.

Ironically, Democrats are growing increasingly nervous about two members in seats that Clinton won by double digits in 2016: Rep. TJ Cox in California's Central Valley and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in South Florida.

In the closing weeks, national Republicans have begun to hone in on crime, warning in countless ads that Democrats plan to "defund the police." And they are most optimistic about this line of attack in the Staten Island-based district with a heavy law-enforcement presence, where Rose is locked in a tight race with state Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis.

In most well-educated suburban districts, Trump is proving just as burdensome as he was in the 2018 midterms. In Oklahoma's 5th District, Horn shocked the political world by upsetting an unprepared incumbent. Trump won the seat by 13 points, but some private polling now indicates a tight presidential contest there.

Welp funny enough most of this was right / their concerns were correct